WHAT

Iraq has gone from democracy promotion to conflagration avoidance. The case was made when Robert Gates was unanimously endorsed as the new defense secretary even as he showered the Senate confirmation panel with cold candour. He warned that America’s occupation of Iraq could lead to a Baghdad as hostile as Tehran and set off a regional conflagration if not skillfully resolved in the near future. While Mr. Gates’ forthrightness provides a welcome contrast from the bellicose jingoism of the last few years, only time will show if President Bush will give his new defense chief the independence he needs to effect meaningful policy changes. Both the Rumsfeld memo and the Baker-Hamilton Study Group report assessing US policy in Iraq, detail the failure there as “grave and deteriorating”. Both documents say the US must find a way to disengage by handing over the problems to the Iraqi leaders that the US brought to power and that America may have to leave while blaming Iraqi leaders for the failure. The blueprint for a different approach includes the pullback of all American combat brigades over the next 15 months.

Yet the documents do not address the fact that power is not in the hands of Iraqi politicians in the Green Zone and political solutions must engage the Shias. The longer Americans occupy the Country, US influence in the region will give way to extremism and instability, putting the Middle East at stake. The Iraq Study Group performed an invaluable service to the United States by underscoring the importance of multilateralism and the need for diplomatic exchanges even with America's adversaries that include Syria and Iran. As such, it might prove to be the end of neo-conservative efforts to drive US foreign policy toward unilateralism, jingoism and hubris, the results of which are plain to see in Iraq.

The most remarkable aspect of these recommendations is that they are the outcome of a bipartisan consensus. It seems very likely that 2007 will be make or break time in Iraq. In brief, what the 79 recommendations contained in the 142-page Baker-Hamilton Study Group report suggest is to: (i) urge the Bush administration to withdraw all its combat troops from Iraq by the first quarter of 2008; (ii) ask the US to engage Iran and Syria in its efforts to secure a peaceful resolution of the Iraqi crisis; (iii) underscore the need to resolve the Israel–Palestine dispute, noting that the US alone cannot achieve its goal in the region unless it deals directly with these countries; (iv) call upon the administration to provide additional economic and military support to Afghanistan.

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan in his swan song had said that Iraq was on the verge of a civil war –– a characterisation that Bush and military officials have rejected even as attacks among different sects and political groups have intensified over the last year. A recent study by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health estimates that more than 601,000 Iraqis have died in the war and its aftermath, of which about one-third were directly caused by the coalition forces. Over 1.6 million Iraqis have become refugees. The economic cost of the war for US citizens has been estimated to be $3 trillion till November 2006. The occupying army has lost nearly 3000 (2956 till 19 Dec) US soldiers and 247 soldiers from other countries, while the number of injured is over 46,000.

Agreement At Last over Sanctions on Iran

After the six world powers meeting in Paris failed to agree what sanctions to impose over Iran's refusal to halt sensitive nuclear work, the UN Security Council at last on 23 Dec slapped the first-ever sanctions on Iran by a unanimous vote, targeting its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes in response to its refusal to halt sensitive nuclear fuel work. The Council directed all states 'to prevent the supply, sale or transfer ... of all items, materials, equipment, goods and technology which could contribute to Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes’. The resolution mandates that 'all states shall freeze the funds, other financial assets and economic resources’ owned by people or entities linked to Iran’s proliferation-sensitive nuclear activities or the development of nuclear weapon delivery systems’. Russia worked hard to soften the resolution and expressed hope that Iran would 'correctly and very seriously take measures to rectify the situation,' so that sanctions could be lifted. On the other hand the US sought greater sanctions and stated that should Iran not carry out 'full, unconditional and immediate compliance’ with the resolution, it 'will not hesitate to return to seek further action’. Iran condemned the resolution as an illegal measure outside the Council's jurisdiction and vowed to continue with nuclear processing for peaceful nuclear activities. All the same, the resolution is weaker than proposals in earlier drafts, after repeated changes had to be made to placate Russia and China –– who have strong economic interests in Iran.

The seminal, transformative issues that North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members bitterly disagree on, could make no headway at the recent summit in Riga, Latvia. NATO members have to grapple with two major propositions, both advanced by Washington: Should NATO claim a more global role, and should it be enlarged to include Ukraine and Georgia as full members? The reaction in Europe to these two proposals ranged from wariness to explicit negativity. Moscow, meanwhile, saw its regional interests especially threatened by the second. The prospect of a global NATO would involve a deepening of existing partnerships with countries such as Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan.

Traditional allies, Pakistan and China held 10-day joint military exercises starting 11 Dec in the

mountainous northern region which were aimed at helping the two countries fight terrorism. A contingent of China's People's Liberation Army arrived in Pakistani garrison city of Rawalpindi, adjoining Islamabad, on 10 Dec to take part in the exercises, named "Friendship––2006". The joint exercises came two weeks after a visit by Chinese President Hu Jintao to Pakistan. More than 200 Chinese troops, including the Elite Group, took part in the first-ever joint military exercise outside their country. The two armies held such exercises in China in 2004. The focus of the exercises was to mutually benefit from each others’ experience in planning and conduct of anti-terrorist operations thereby strengthening the existing bonds of friendship between the armies of the two countries. China was the main supplier of conventional arms to Pakistan and analysts believe it has also supported Islamabad's missile and nuclear weapons programme.

Pakistan, a key ally in the US-led war on terrorism, was fighting Islamist militancy at home and its security forces had launched operations in the lawless tribal belt, bordering Afghanistan, against al Qaeda-linked militants hiding there. China also waged a relentless campaign against what it calls the violent separatist activities of Uighur Muslims in its far-northwestern region of Xinjiang province. The region shared borders with Afghanistan, Pakistan, Russia, Mongolia and three former Soviet Central Asian republics. During Hu's visit, the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding for long-term collaboration in defence production including development of an airborne early warning surveillance system.

The US government awarded an initial $78 million as part of a $144 million contract to Lockheed Martin for long-lead tasks related to the production of 18 new Advanced Block 52 F-16 aircraft for Pakistan. Earlier this year, the governments of Pakistan and the United States signed a Letter of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) agreeing to the purchase of 18 Block 52 F-16s. The LOA provides Pakistan an option for an additional 18 aircraft. The new aircraft will modernize the existing Pakistan Air Force fleet, bringing a robust and versatile defensive capability to the nation's military. The final Pakistan F-16 under this contract will be delivered in 2010.

Describing Pakistan’s volatile tribal region, Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata), as a virtual “mini-state” used by Taliban and foreign militants “to regroup, reorganise and rearm, an international think-tank, Brussels based, International Crisis Group accused Islamabad of following an ambivalent approach. It also spoke of the “government’s failure to take effective action to stop destabilisation of Afghanistan.” The 34-page report gave a detailed analysis of the situation in the cross-border militancy, Talibanisation and its external implication and made a set of recommendations for Pakistan, Afghanistan, the United States and the European Union. It said the Taliban and other foreign militants, including Al-Qaeda sympathisers, had found shelter in Pakistan’s tribal regions bordering on south-eastern Afghanistan since 2001. The extremely critical report said that the government’s agreements with militants in South Waziristan in April 2004 and North Waziristan on 05 Sep 2006 gave the pro-Taliban elements a free hand to recruit, train and arm.

China could have its first aircraft carrier battle group composed of 11 warships in place by 2020 as

per a Taiwanese estimate. This could be an under estimation as far as China's capability to develop and deploy submarines is concerned. China will have two Type 093 nuclear-powered attack submarines in this planned aircraft carrier battle group. Named the "Shang-class" by NATO, Type 093 is a refined model of the Russian Victor-III class and an engineering project complementary to the construction of China's Type 094 Jin-class nuclear-powered guided missile submarines. Deploying two nuclear-powered attack submarines in a middle-sized aircraft carrier battle group is considered adequate. Over the past decade, China's submarine technology made huge progress.

In addition to its highly developed Type 093, Beijing may have more advanced nuclear-powered attack submarines, possibly Type 095, by 2020. International media reports indicate that China may have completed the design of Type 095 and initiated the first phase of construction. Some believe the hull of Type 095 has been given a Western rather than a Russian design and that the underwater noise level of the engines has been reduced. The Type 095 may also adopt the sophisticated HY-4 cruise missile with a range of 3,000km. If this type of missile carries a nuclear warhead, it can destroy up to 2km x 2 of any targeted area. If the Type 095 can join its aircraft carrier battle group by 2020, its overall combat capabilities will easily exceed those of Type 093.

After Russia delivered the second batch of eight Russian Kilo-class Type 636 attack submarines to Beijing, China's diesel-electric submarine technology improved considerably through imitation or technology transfer. China's Ming-class submarines have begun testing the installation of an air-independent propulsion (AIP) system that operates on liquid oxyhydrogen cells. Moreover, China's navy continues to improve its Type 039 Song-class submarine, which was recently found stalking the USS Kitty Hawk near Okinawa. In future, all Song-class submarines are likely to be equipped with the AIP system and China will take the initiative to acquire new weapons systems from Russia, including supersonic anti-ship missiles, land-attack cruise missiles, wake-homing torpedoes and supercavitating torpedoes.

Thus by 2020, China's fleet of diesel-electric submarines will have become an underwater threat to nations in the Asia-Pacific region. That would constitute a structural change to the strategic security of both the Taiwan Straits and the first island chain. Taiwan's present defense capabilities will be unable to deal with these changes single-handedly and the nation cannot simply pin its hopes on the acquisition of a few diesel-electric submarines. As the most vulnerable and strategically most important link in the first island chain, Taiwan needs to improve its defense capabilities and strengthen military cooperation with both the US and Japan to deter China's expansionist ambitions.

The United States, China and now a resurgent Russia are all competing for regional influence in Southeast Asia, and Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is shrewdly playing his diplomatic cards among all three suitors. Yudhoyono visited Moscow early this month and signed sevseral bilateral agreements, including big new arms, energy and trade deals. Most significant was a broad agreement to develop stronger military cooperation over the period spanning 2007–10, an arrangement that, if fully implemented, promises to tip the region's current strategic balance. According to news reports, Jakarta has expressed its desire to purchase about $3 billion worth of Russian armaments, and Moscow has provisionally offered $1 billion in five-year loans to facilitate the purchases. The multibillion-dollar arms deal is expected to be finalized when Russian President Vladimir Putin visits Indonesia next June. The agreement follows up on a $192 million bilateral deal in 2003, where Jakarta purchased assault rifles, armored personnel carriers, military helicopters, and Sukhoi fighter jets, some of the most sophisticated aerial defense technology available on global markets. The new multibillion-dollar deal includes plans for purchasing six more Sukhoi jets, submarines, amphibious tanks and anti-aircraft missiles for the Indonesian navy.

In November 2005, the US lifted its arms embargo on Indonesia after Jakarta showed a stronger commitment to US counter-terrorism policies in the region, including the imprisonment or killing of more than 200 suspected Muslim militants. Washington had since dangled the prospect of new arms deals, but so far Jakarta has received the offer coolly. Defense Minister Juwono Sudarsono said last month that the planned Russian purchase would wean Indonesia from its historical dependence on US military products,, which he noted was compromised by the United States' 1991 and 1999 embargoes. Indonesia's top generals have long been frustrated by the US embargoes, which have hindered their ability to acquire spare parts for crucial military equipment. Yudhoyono recently also pushed for defense-cooperation agreements with other nations, including China, to reduce dependence on US and European weapons systems. Beijing recently supplied Jakarta with short-range missile technology. And the recently proposed $3 billion arms deal will tie Jakarta to Moscow closely in a long-term supplier and technical-assistance relationship.

The in-service date (ISD) for the UK Royal Navy's (RN's) new Type 45 anti-air warfare destroyer slipped by a further seven months while programme costs had risen by £157 million ($310.6 million). The current forecast ISD for first-of-class HMS Daring slipped from May to December 2009 over the last year. This is attributed to the impact of the slippage to the Sampson multifunction radar programme and revised timescale/risk analysis of the ship-trials programme. There is also a £202 million increase in shipbuilding costs and associated capital charges.

The British nuclear deterrent is currently vested in a force of four 16,000-ton Vanguard-class SSBNs, each armed with up to 16 Trident D5 missiles and up to 48 warheads. After examining a number of alternative replacement options –– including nuclear-tipped cruise missiles fired from non-penetrating strike aircraft, a land-based (silo launch) system and a surface ship-launched Trident option –– the Ministry of Defence (MoD) concluded in a White Paper on the future of the UK's strategic deterrent, that a submarine-based system offered the most practical and effective means of meeting the future nuclear deterrence requirements. On the basis that it will take about 17 years between the commencement of detailed concept work and the start of a first operational patrol, "detailed concept work on renewal of the deterrent system needs to start in 2007 if a gap in deterrence at the end of the life of the Vanguard-class submarines is to be avoided. A first new submarine needs to be operational by the time HMS Victorious retires in 2024. Hence a successor submarine is being planned for November 2007. The second strand of the deterrent renewal programme would see the UK becoming part of the US Trident D5 life-extension programme, which is designed to prolong the life of the Trident system out to 2042 to match the projected lifespan of the US Navy's 14 Ohio-class SSBNs. UK’s participation is expected to cost £250 million ($494 million).

Britain’s decision to maintain a strategic nuclear capability until 2050 is an effort to sustain it as a major world power. But there is a section of opinion which argues that a strategic nuclear capability is not vital to Britain’s future security. The dangers to the country, as a major nuclear power, are Russia and China; regional nuclear powers from “rogue” states; and potential sponsors of nuclear terrorists. While the White Paper recommends that Britain should not disarm, yet modernisation of the arsenals would be very expensive besides robbing the existing nuclear powers of moral authority.

French Defence Minister Michele Alliot-Marie announced on 17 Dec that France would withdraw hundreds of its special forces from Afghanistan within the next few weeks. She was referring to some 200 French special forces stationed in eastern Afghanistan as part of Operation Enduring Freedom, aimed at hunting down Taliban fighters. France deployed a total of 2,000 troops in Afghanistan, with the remainder serving in the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). Seven members of the French Special Forces had been killed in action in the war-ravaged country, while 12 others were wounded since their deployment. The French forces contingent is currently based in Nangarhar. The proposed French withdrawal comes when ISAF commanders facing unexpectedly strong Taliban resistance have been demanding more troops for the south of Afghanistan where the militants are most active. French troops would however be readily deployed in any region if an emergency so demanded. The minister also announced that French instructors will be involved in the training of the Afghan army's Special Forces. She added that France has decided to keep its air force in the country on a long-term basis, as well as deploying two new helicopters.

Boeing, the second-largest defence contractor in the United States, is to pitch for up to $15 billion (£7.6 billion) of military hardware contracts in India over the next decade as it attempts to put the country among its top three Asian markets. There have been discussions with about 40 Indian private and state-owned companies about joint ventures. It hopes to add India to its supply chain to export to other markets and source some products here to drive down costs by taking advantage of the technological skills and labour in India. The company’s biggest international markets are Australia, Japan, Singapore and South Korea, but four teams of executives will visit India in coming months to seek partnerships with domestic companies. Boeing supplies commercial aircraft in India and has just delivered the first of 68 planes to Air India under an $11 billion contract, the largest commercial aircraft order in India’s civil aviation history.

The company is waiting to hear if it has been successful in its bid to supply the Indian Navy with eight P8A multimission maritime aircraft. It is also offering to sell CH47 heavy-lift Chinook helicopters and T45 naval training aircraft.

The big deal on the horizon, however, is the contract with the Indian Air Force to supply 126 new jet fighters. The contract is estimated to be worth about $9 billion, but the figure is speculative until the Government publishes its invitation to tender, expected before the end of the year. But competition will be fierce, with rival bids expected from Lockheed Martin, of the US, Dassault Aviation of France, Sukhoi Design Bureau of Russia, Gripen-SAAB (a joint venture between Saab, of Sweden and BAE Systems of Britain), and the Eurofighter consortium, in which BAE Systems has a 33 per cent stake. Boeing is pitching its multipurpose FA18 Super Hornet jets.

Recently, the Indian government took a decision in principle to buy an additional 40 Russian-made Su-30MKIs for which Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) has a licence to produce/assemble under an agreement that provides for the supply of 140 such planes. India has also sought information on buying what would be its first US military aircraft, six Lockheed Martin C-130J "Super Hercules" cargo planes. The four-engine turboprop is the US Air Force's workhorse cargo and personnel transport aircraft. The "J" is its latest model. It is capable of short takeoffs and landings from unprepared runways. The price per aircraft may top $70 million, depending on configuration.

According to the US Congressional Research Service’s latest report on developing nations, India eclipsed China in the arms race in 2005. India’s agreed $5.4 billion of defence deals top China’s $2.8 billion. Saudi Arabia was second, with $3.4 billion of purchases. Analysts expect the trend to continue as India upgrades outdated weapons systems and maintains a high vigilance against threats posed by unstable neighbours and international terrorism. India’s defence budget in the last fiscal year was $19 billion, or 2.96 per cent of gross domestic product, but it is expected to exceed $30 billion by 2012. US Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns told a press conference after talks with Defence Ministry officials in New Delhi on 08 Dec that the US had a “separate ambition” of a much closer military relationship with India and that it hoped to participate in the transformation of its armed forces. He added that technology transfers would allow the two militaries to have a long-term relationship as a partner.

India is to begin assembling French Scorpene attack submarines on 14 Dec as part of a plan to

boost its naval power and military-industrial know-how. The 2.4 billion euro deal to build an initial six diesel submarines was signed in October 2005 with Armaris, a subsidiary of France’s Thales group and Direction des Constructions Navales (DCN). The agreement also includes the sale of 36 Exocet-type anti-submarine and anti-ship missiles

This is only phase one and there is a plan to build 18 more indigenous submarines. The Scorpene, jointly developed by DCN and Spain’s Navantia, is a 67-meter-long (220 feet) craft designed for attack and interception. Malaysia and Chile have also placed orders. India’s contract covers a 12-year period, and the first craft is scheduled to enter into service in 2012, with an additional submarine following each year. With the Scorpene, India is hoping to bring its fleet up to date to match challenges from rivals Pakistan and China. The contract also includes the transfer of key technology, with just the first two submarines being built under French and Spanish supervision. The arrangement has been presented as a win-win deal giving new technology to India and a major foothold in the country’s huge defense market to the foreign firms.

The first BAE Systems Hawk Advanced Jet Trainer (AJT) destined for India has taken to the skies for its maiden flight at BAE Systems' facility in Warton. The Hawk, designated HT001 and specifically tailored to meet the Indian Air Force requirements, was piloted by Keith Dennison, BAE Systems' Chief Test Pilot and Jon Price, Hawk Instructor pilot. Following the successful flight, Keith said, “The short flight went without a hitch and the aircraft performed very well with sparkling acceleration on the runway”. Its latest developments provide a training platform that is closely matched to the demands of the next generation of aircraft. The first flight of HT001 took place just one month after the aircraft was delivered into final assembly. This is the first of 66 Hawk AJTs, the world's most successful advanced jet trainer, that are being built for the Indian Air Force, just one of the 19 air forces who are operating or have ordered the Hawk. The first 24 aircraft are being built by BAE Systems in the UK, with the remaining 42 being manufactured under licence in India by HAL at Bangalore. BAE Systems is also providing interim pilot training to the Indian Air Force. This is taking place at RAF Valley in Wales, and so far nearly 40 pilots have successfully undergone this training. The first Indian Air Force Hawk aircraft will be delivered to India in September 2007 following a period of flight testing in the UK.

India Receives First Sakhalin Crude

India has received its first shipment of crude from the Sakhalin-I development, reinvigorating discussions about cooperation in the gas sector between India and Russia. The 672,000 bbl of crude oil is the first of four cargoes from the Sakhalin oil field for Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, which has a 20 per cent stake in the development. Two of the cargoes will be delivered and processed in the southern port of Mangalore, with the second cargo expected to arrive later this month. The other two cargoes will be reportedly sold in the international market. India plans to invest $US5 billion in a bid to source one billion barrels of oil and oil-equivalent gas from Russia as part of measures to diversify its energy sources. At present, India imports more than 70 per cent of its crude oil with much of it coming from the Middle East. Last month, the two countries agreed to extend their cooperation in the energy sector and work together in downstream projects, such as product pipeline development. As part of these talks, India also separately proposed an exploration venture with Russia’s Gazprom, and sought a stake in the Sakhalin III development.

IOC Acquires Stake in Samsun–Ceyhan Pipeline

Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) has acquired a 12.5 per cent stake in a joint venture between Eni and Çalik, confirming its participation in the Samsun–Ceyhan oil pipeline project which will use the infrastructure of the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline to carry Caspian oil to the Black Sea. The project will consist of a 550 km pipeline, a new loading terminal in Samsun and oil storage facilities in Ceyhan. The designed capacity of the system will be 1.5 MMbbl/d of oil. The construction of this infrastructure would allow most of the Caspian crude oil production to securely and economically access the Mediterranean Sea which bypasses the Bosphorus Straits and is considered the most convenient one from a commercial, environmental and technical point of view. Development of the project is already underway.

IOC had previously signed a preliminary agreement with project developers Eni and Çalik in November while in June, Eni and Çalik signed a deal to start construction on the Samsun–Ceyhan oil pipeline. IOC’s participation in this international project will boost the company’s growth beyond its domestic borders and aid in realisation of its vision of becoming a transnational, integrated energy company.

India joined a new five-nation club of oil buyers aiming to challenge the vice grip of producing countries over crude prices and supplies. It also formalised a long awaited arrangement with China to jointly explore and produce oil and gas in third countries. This deal with China would help India access some oil-rich but politically difficult areas in Africa where the Chinese have built up enviable influence. There are several other good locations like Venezuela and Ecuador where collaboration can be very fruitful. As far as the buyers club is concerned, US leads the way at 25% of world’s consumption, followed by Japan at 11% and China’s 8% whereas India’s is just 3% equal to that of S. Korea. The latest oil and gas discovery by ONGC in Krishna–Godavari basin, which promises to put India amongst 10 gas-rich countries would give it a bigger bargaining position in the world.

The Indian weapon locating radar (WLR) will be offered to the Army for evaluation by end Dec. The radar developed by BEL and DRDO is designed to pick up the trajectory of an incoming artillery shell or rocket and locate the point of its origin. It can also track and observe fall of shot from own weapons to provide fire correction. The need for a WLR was seriously felt during the Kargil conflict and the Army imported a Raytheon-made Firefinder WLR system from US under a FMS deal worth $146 million. The Army is expected to induct the indigenous WLR some time next year and a letter of intent for 24 units has been placed on BEL.

The Largest and Most Powerful Warships Built So Far - Nimitz Class Aircraft Carriers

Length 317 m
Beam 40.8 m
Draught 11.3 m
Flight deck length 332.9 m
Flight deck width 76.8 m
Displacement, standard 81,600 tons
Displacement, full load 91,487 tons
20 x F-14D Tomcat
36 x F/A-18 Hornet
8 x S-3A/B Viking
4 x E-2C Hawkeye
4 x EA-6B Prowler
4 x SH-60F
2 x HH-60H