An IDC Analysis


New Delhi, 07 November 2006  

The elections to the US Congress are due on 7 Nov and by the morning of 8 Nov, we will know the results which will be crucial for the Indo–US nuclear deal, on which PM Manmohan Singh and national security adviser M K Narayanan have staked so much. It will be good if the agreement goes through as we will have all the privileges of the NPT without signing it. The world may call it hegemony but as India’s economy is doing well and India has the most professional Armed Force in Asia, it can afford to be a bit Bolshy. The elections will be crucial for the world’s Geo and Eco Strategy and so we offer the three scenarios which viewers may look for on CNN. India’s Army Chief Gen J J Singh will be in USA during that period for a six-day visit. He follows ACM S P Tyagi to USA and the Indians are being really feted. We alluded to the relationship between the Navies being very close and the other two services would like to outdo the Navy.

First –– which we see as a possibility –– the Democrats gain the House in DC in which case our prediction is that the US withdraw from Iraq will be sooner than later and there will be a dip in the US Economy as Defence companies of the Military Industrial Complex will see a downturn and US morale may flag.

Second –– which we feel most confident about –– is that the House will be divided with no clear cut majority for the Republicans or the Democrats, but a slender lead for either one. In such case there will be confusion on policies. India will have to push hard for the Indo–US nuclear deal.

Third –– the Republicans romp home with a clear majority –– which may be very difficult to come by, in which case President Bush will say I told you so and carry on regardless and the US–India nuclear deal will look good but Under Secretary Nicholas Burns has decided to postpone his trip to India as he is also not sure till 8 Nov and this is no time to travel.

In any case we say Jihad will not die as philosopher Nitzche always told us the world will always be riddled with isms which will run their course –- Nazism, Communism, Capitalism or call it Globalism (which Prem Shankar in his latest book The Twilight of Nation State claims will lead to more regional wars) –– and now we have Terrorism. And the world's mightiest fighting force USA and UK continue to kill Islamo fascists in Iraq and Afghanistan currently the key battleground in the global jihad. But there cannot be much question that at this point in the war against radical Islam, the radicals are still on the march. Their spirit which is religious cannot be broken. Even in Iran President Ahmadinejad's nuclear threats are understandable. He feels he has a right to nuclear power and this brings about military nuclear ambitions and Adam Smith had stated ‘the Sovereign’s prime duty is national security’ and Iran feels if Israel can have the nuclear bomb then Iran too needs a deterrent. Hezbollah's war on Israel showed Jihad ability and spirit to master missile technology and the plot to blow up jetliners leaving London, shows Jihad is aggressive, relentless, and unequivocal in their determination to defeat the West.

India is lucky we just have odd Jihadi problems in the country and we need to assist Indian Muslims to become a part of the mainstream and we wonder why a clever man like PM Manmohan Singh has not enforced the Constitution article to make education compulsory and free up to the age of 14? Kashmir is a problem of our own making and Gen JJ Singh has said it is not as serious as it was. Meanwhile, Western Europe is turning into Eurabia as a fading native white population with its effete secular culture of pacifism and relativism and money making is superseded by a surging Muslim diaspora. Most Muslims are not Islamists or terrorists, of course. However, most of them keep quiet in the face of the radical offensive. It is the radicals and the poor and those who feel Islam is being threatened who keep driving the jihad forward. 

Yet Bush is clever to say "If this country lets down its guard, it will be a fatal mistake."  Americans seem unable to recognize the threat, or to believe that they, their liberties, and the lives of innumerable human beings are truly at stake and it needs a different approach. But radical Islam is not going away. Like Nazism and Communism, it is (in Senator Rick Santorum's words) "an ideology that produces the systemic murder of innocents." Like those earlier totalitarianisms, it will go on murdering until it is sees itself as self destructive –– as Gorbachov saw for communism in Russia –– with KGB and other excesses of defence spending. This will take time and please read our piece that Iraq may break into three and the days are coming closer with the death sentence given to Saddam Hussein.

Back to Top

Disclaimer   Copyright