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New
Delhi, 29 September 2005
“India
and Pakistan should place all their CBMs in one incubator or good
basket, watch the eggs nurture in it and see that no one kicks it
over.”
—
APJ
Abdul Kalam, President of India,
April (17 April, 2005, New Delhi)
“The
military option is not an option anymore. Now is the time for
conflict resolution”. (18 April 2005, New Delhi)”. “ The issue
(Kashmir) can be solved over certain time”
—
General
Parvez Musharraf,
President of Pakistan, (12
June,
2005 Kuala Lumpur)
“The
greatest change you will see in the next three or four years is a
new American focus on South Asia, particularly in establishing a
closer strategic partnership with India . . . If you look at all the
trends—population, economic growth, foreign policy trends —
there’s no question that India is the rising power in the East. .
. .
I think you’ll see this as a major focus of our President and our
Secretary of state, and it will be the area of greatest dynamic
positive change in American foreign policy.”
—
US
Under Secretary of State
Nicholas Burns
(26
May,
2005 Brussels)
With
a slew of confidence-building measures and initiatives aggressively
put in place by the Indian Government for rapprochement with its
neighbours Pakistan and China, and the signing of security
cooperation agreements in the littoral region of Thailand,
Indonesia, Singapore, Seychelles and Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean,
the Indian security and defence establishment in the 21st
century presents a very different picture to that seen during the
non alignment and cold war period. India has also begun to supply
military aid to nations and the first consignment of military spares
was delivered by INS
Magar to Viet Nam in mid June.
The
new face of India is seen in many a field. Fuelled by the internet
and computer revolution, it is struggling to transform itself. For
the first time, the personnel of the Armed Forces are exposed to the
thoughts, philosophies, doctrines and equipment requirements of
their counterparts around the world. A new sense of confidence
prevails, and changes are evident as nascent Indian defence
industries work to deliver. India
has signed R and D agreements with Israel for joint funding
in space, and that sector is advancing rapidly, and recently ISRO
successfully placed India’s 1600
kg remote sensing satellite CARTOSAT 1 in polar orbit employing the
294 tons PSLV C6 from its Satish Dhawan launch pad in South India.
Structurally
however, the Government is yet to see the many changes that have
been recommended post the Kargil war of 1999. It has yet to fully
activate the National Security Council and
appoint a Chief of Defence Staff, despite a large 300 strong
Integrated Defence Staff IDS already in place under the senior most
3-star purple hat incumbent, Vice Admiral Raman Puri. The
intelligence agencies still lack
coordination despite realization and efforts by the National
Security Adviser M K Narayanan who doubles as the Chief of Staff to
the Prime Minister. A new technical agency akin to the NSA called
National Technical Reporting Oganisation NTRO with aerial assets and
carved out of the RAW, India’s CIA is still to settle. The basic
structure of the Armed Forces remains unchanged, with the Chiefs of
all three Services holding an equal 4-star ranking. The bureaucrats
continue to be the decision makers under
the newly scripted procedures
for defence procurement and the political party in power dictates
the preference and timing for major purchases. Large pending multi
billion dollar orders for submarines
(Armaris Scorpene, HDW and Amur), transport (C 130 and
Russian) and maritime surveillance aircraft (PC3 Orions, Boeing P8A
and Russian) and 126 fighter aircraft Mirage (2000V, Grippen, MiG
29M2 and F 16) and 155 mm towed and self propelled guns( Bofors and
Denel) are being lobbied for, by interested parties, as there are
changed equations, within the new congress led one year old UPA
Government in New Delhi. Most suppliers appreciate that the ordering
procedure in India is dilatory. Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee
has assured that all $ 7.5 bill will be utilized for capital
expenditure in 2005 but from
now on it will be mandatory for all foreign arms suppliers receiving
contracts worth more than $ 75 mill (Rs 3 billion) to offer
30% of the amount as direct offsets. This is a major change
carried out in the defence capital procurement procedure manual
released by defence minister in June. The minister said the
procurement manual might be further revised once the second part of
the Kelkar Committee recommendations were received.
United
States Reaches Out To India
A
land mark security development took place on 25 March 2005, when
after secret deliberations, President Bush phoned PM Manmohan Singh
and declared that the US was eager to help India develop as a world
power, and offered defence equipment including F 16s. This was
followed by a visit by Secretary Condelezza Rice who offered nuclear
plant technology and F 18s, with PC 3 Orions and C 130Js already on
offer. Since then the PAC 3 Patriot BMD system has also been cleared
to India. In early June
at the Asian Security Conference organized by IISS
at Singapore, Secretary Rumsfeld drew a stark
contrast between China and democratic India declaring America is
courting India as a counter-weight to the communist nation, with the
words, “We anticipate that the relationship with India will
continue to be strengthened. With respect to China, it’s not
completely clear which way they are going because you have the
tension I characterised between the nature of their political system
and the nature of their economic system.” These
policy turns by USA are of great significance and are shaping and
influencing future Indo-Pak, India-China and Indo-US relations.
India’s Defence Minsiter Pranab Mukherjee is visiting
USA as a guest of Secretary Donald Rumsfeld from 25 June and
an elaborate programme of meetings for cooperation and visits to
high security military establishments, including one to Colarado
Springs Missile center has
been drawn up. PM Manmohan Singh is scheduled to visit with
President Bush in Washington in July to discuss issues including
nuclear technology while President Bush
is slated to visit India later this year. India
covets new defence equipment and wishes to strengthen its nuclear
energy program and fulfill its ambition to succeed in its expensive
nuclear submarine programme, the ATV as this programme is directly
under the PM. The United States had prohibited the sale of nuclear
technology to India since India tested a nuclear bomb in 1998.A new
era in India US security relations is on the anvil, and needs
watching to see how far it fructifies.
Pakistan
India Equations Witness Changes
Pakistan’s
President Musharraf appreciates the new realities and appears to be
factoring the changed circumstances to arrive at Pakistan’s future
policy towards a more powerful India. Hence the elusive Kashmir
issue could resolve with changes along the
Line of Control in due course, which India is pushing for,
enumerating the economic gains that can accrue to both nations with
normalized relations. Already
India’s energy ambitions have led to developments unthinkable just
a couple of years ago. India has supported a
$4 billion, 1,600-mile pipeline that would ferry natural gas
from Iran across Pakistan to India, in which Pakistan stands to
collect handsome transit fees and is being pursued as an
international business project. India has signed a $5 bill deal for
supply of gas from Iran as a first step. The project could see
movement, despite the prospect of Baluchistan rebels threatening to
cause disruptions, and USA’s reservations. Another of India’s
“fanciful dreams,” as Mr Aiyer India’s Petroleum Minister
calls them, is yet another pipeline that would dispatch gas from
Turkmenistan through Afghanistan, thence into Pakistan and India.
Discussions on resolving the Sir Creek delineation to resolve the
international sea boundary and Siachen have also moved forward and
PM Manmohan Singh visited Saichen in June and stated the region
could be “a mountain of peace”.
Current
India-Pakistan Military CBMs
India
has proposed 72 CBMs for Pakistan to consider. There is already a
hot line between DGMOs of India and Pakistan and for the first time
there is good will to ensure the cease fire declared along the LOC
in Kashmir in November 2003 is diligently maintained. The laying of
optical fibre cable (OFC) has been completed on the Indian side and
progress on Pakistan side is awaited to make the hotline failsafe
and secure. Presently, the hotline is based on microwave, and only
voice communication is available with no data transmission
capability. The two DGMOs exchange views on a weekly basis, every
Tuesday. Link telephones between Corps/Divisional commanders have
been proposed in the list of 72 CBMs. More recently the tempo of
CBMs between India and Pakistan has also picked up and the earlier
agreements on Advance Notice of Military Exercises, Manoeuvres and
Troop Movements, Missile tests, Air Space Violation Restrictions,
Prohibition of Attack on Nuclear Installations and Accord on
Chemical Weapons have been re discussed and some implemented. Each
party diligently informs the other of the location of their
nuclear installations and facilities on 01 January every
year, and whenever there is any change. The
scope of this ‘No Attack Agreement’ is even broader than the
Geneva Convention’s prohibition against attacking nuclear
‘electrical generating stations’. The India Pakistan agreement
prohibits attack against nuclear power and research reactors, fuel
fabrication, uranium enrichment, isotope separation and reprocessing
facilities as well as other installations with fresh or irradiated
fuel and material in any form, and establishments storing sufficient
quantities of radioactive material. In
August 1999 an Indian Air Force MiG 21 shot down a Pakistan Navy
Atlantique and if the will on both sides continues, such an incident
is unlikely to repeat in the current atmosphere.
Joint
Declaration on Chemical Weapons
A
Joint Declaration on the Complete Prohibition of Chemical Weapons
was signed by India and Pakistan on 19 August
1992, at New Delhi. The two sides reaffirmed their adherence
to the 1925 Geneva protocol on the prohibition of the use in war of
asphyxiating, poisonous or other gases and of bacteriological
methods of warfare. They also declared their intent to become
original parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), which
they have since signed. Earlier India-Pakistan military CBMs have
been perfunctory with no depth since the basic common goal has not
been developed by the two. For CBMs to really succeed, both
countries need to enthuse trust. Pakistan had proposed a ‘no war
pact’ which was rejected by India, due to lack of trust.
The
Siachen Dispute
The
Siachen area is acknowledged as
the highest battle field in the world where Indian troops on
a high salient known as the Soltoro ridge at 19,000 feet over look
the Pakistani troops who are ever ready to shoot upward and have
attempted to recapture the salient, including one under then
Brigadier Musharraf. The genesis of the dispute goes to the language
inked in the 1949 India-Pakistan agreement that concluded the first
of three wars in Kashmir. A CFL (cease-fire line) was agreed to run
along the India-Pakistan border and then north and northeast until
grid-point NJ 9842 on the map. NJ 9842 is situated near the Shyok
River at the base of the Saltoro mountain range. Since there was no
military presence in the area north of this grid-point in Kashmir,
the two sides agreed that the CFL extended to NJ 9842 and “thence
north to the glaciers”. India interpreted this to mean the line
turned and ran true North geographically at NJ 9842. This was
differently interpreted by Pakistan to mean the line carried on as
an extension northeast wards and the row became serious in 1983-84.
India dislodged the Pakistan Army from the salient now called Bana
peak, named after the Junior Commissioned Officer who braved the
heroic charge. Since 1984, the two sides have been locked in a
conflict where weather, terrain and other climatic vagaries have
claimed and maimed more Indian lives than actual combat. Pakistan
and India nearly declared
Siachen as “No Man’s Land” in 1989, but is now under
discussion for both sides to with draw and respect each others
present actual position along the ground. PM Manmohan Singh
personally visited the region in June to appreciate the situation.
Indian Army has reservations to withdraw from the Saltoro ridge on a
two fold logic. It believes that if, post-withdrawal, the
Pakistan army were to occupy the peaks that are in the hands of the
Indian troops now, the Indian army will never ever be able to
dislodge the Pakistanis. Another is the Siachen Glacier forms the
wedge between Pakistan held Kashmir and Chinese Aksai Chin. The
Indian army feels that control of the territory would support
India’s defence of Ladakh, Jammu, and Kashmir against any threats
from Pakistan or China and prevent either Pakistani or Chinese
forces from outflanking Indian troops in the Leh and Kargil sectors.
Further, controlling Siachen would enable India to monitor the
Karakoram Highway and the Khunjerab Pass. The matter will not be
easy to resolve unless trust is built up.
Prognosis.
The nine Corps Commanders and the large Pakistan Army is the most
powerful force within the power troika of Pakistan and the Army has
always played a pivotal role even during the Pakistan’s
intermittent trysts with democracy in Pakistan’s history. However
historically by helping the Taliban and Mujahideens in Afghanistan
before 9/11, large sections of the Pakistan Army are still
sympathetic to and under the Jehadi Islamist influence. If General
Musharraf is serious about attempting to eliminate this influence
from the Army by getting rid of the Islamist elements there are good
chances the peace process will move forward for resolution in a
gradual manner. The generals who staged the coup to propel General
Musharraf to power in absentia in October 1999 namely Generals Aziz,
Usmani and Mehmud, have all retired or have been successfully eased
out by General Musharraf. Indian Foreign Secretary Mr Shyam Saran
and his Pakistani counterpart Mr Riaz H. Khokhar had agreed in Dec
2004, to explore CBMs vigorously along the international border and
the LOC, and if these are followed up with trust and genuineness
from both sides the prognosis looks promising, and USA can
contribute by keeping the pressure on Pakistan.
India–China
Draw New Roadmap
India
is doing incremental business with China and is aware that is the
right thing to do but it also views nuclear China which is arming
itself, as its biggest competitor in the region for dominance. It
also sees China lining up new energy sources which will have to
transit the Indian Ocean, which India sees as its parish. The
combined appetite of the two Asian giants is also raising oil prices
and putting greater demands on world oil supplies. The armies of
India and China, which fought a border war four decades ago, are now
burying the past and leaders are doing their bit to resolve the
border more or less on as is where basis
along the line of peace and tranquility, with minor
adjustments, and mutually working to drop claims. The Indian Navy
has exercised with the Chinese Navy off Shanghai in 2004, and
recently in end May the Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Arun Prakash
who is also the Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee held talks
with visiting Chinese Chief of General Staff, General Liang Guanglie.
The visiting Army general’s team included high ranking naval and
air force officers of the PLA. The PLA navy has been invited to join
in exercises off India and the delegation visited Western Naval
Command. Indian armed forces officers have been deputed to
institutions in China and many strategic teams have visited each
other’s institutions. The general was the guest of Army Chief Gen
J J Singh and Indian Army declared it will hold unprecedented joint
counter-terrorism and peacekeeping training programmes with China in
the near future. One Indian Major General and a team witnessed
exercises in China.This is being reciprocated.
Army
Chief General Joginder Jaswant Singh discussed many wide ranging
cooperative moves with General Guanglie in Delhi. All three services
expeditions to Mount Everest have used the Chinese side and the PLA
has been most cooperative. The army to army relations on the
northern borders have vastly improved and soldiers have gone on
joint mountaineering expeditions, played volleyball matches,
exchanged gifts and shared meals. In the words of Gen JJ Singh,
which he uttered soon after the General left India, “The momentum
given by the leaders of our two countries is being enhanced further
by the two militaries, where both countries could carry out
maneuvers together to counter terrorism or on UN missions and
relations assuming strategic relations.” Both Chiefs had
observed that the military Confidence Building Measures (CBMs),
agreed on by both sides during the visit of Chinese Premier Wen
Jiabao in May , were very good
Conclusion
India’s
security matrix is being built up on mutual cooperation and most
nations in the Indian Ocean littorals are signing agreements for
joint patrols. In the past India has extended military training
assistance to countries, and aid only to Nepal and Bhutan. This is
being extended to the littoral and the Indian Navy is being
projected as the leading policeman for the region to see it is
stable and peaceful. The Indian Navy is being beefed up to attend to
the freedom of the seas and safety of the Sea Lines of
Communications. India has presented a Fast Attack craft to
Seychelles, small ships to Maldives and is due to refit Sri Lanka
Navy ships and provide an air defence system to Sri Lanka as the
LTTE is building up some aerial assets. Now Viet Nam is on the list
and IN’s lead amphibious landing ship tank INS Magar sailed with
900 boxes of spares for Petya and OSA missile boats and in the
presence of Vice Admiral OP Bansal delivered them to the Viet Namese
Navy in mid June. Japan is in serious discussions with India to see
how its interests in the Indian Ocean can be jointly safe guarded.
There is more out of the box thinking to be seen in the India’s
Security build of the future and this bodes well, as USA looks to
interoperability by offering its equipment and support to India.
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