An IDC Analysis


New Delhi, 21 October 2006  

USA and its Leadership which understand oil politics and money power are no fools to have forayed into Iraq and their final outlet if the trouble does not abate, may be to break Iraq into three pockets. The media hype for a countdown for US troops’ pullout has already begun and only time will tell when they leave Iraq –– at the most in two years from now? The British Army Chief has already stated publicly that British troops must pull out. Thereafter, led by corporate USA, the world will start to rebuild those areas of Iraq that need rebuilding –– in return for oil. India will gain too in the rebuilding mostly as sub contractors.

USA's stock market is booming but being the super power of this century and the resolve to be a Leader seem to have been replaced by money grabbing. USA has made money out of bombing Iraq out of shape, gained a lot of military lessons and all for the loss of 2590 lives so far in three years. USA's stock market and its investments in emerging markets have been a rewarding experience and the world economy is driven by USA doing well. The Western world pampers India with PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) a crooked term the Western financial experts have coined and dub it as the world's No. 4 economy. As late Admiral Karmarkar, the first brown to command whites in the Indian Navy used to tell the white officers and sailors, 'I am with you and for you but don’t ever give me White bull'. They understood and recently in Tokyo in a conference on security when a Japanese economist tried to throw PPP at India and say we must pay UN dues as the fifth largest PPP economy in the world and with PPP per capita just equal to that of Japan, we argued that PPP was OK in India but abroad one had to pay ¥200 i.e. Rs 100 for a cup of tea and that did not help the Indians any? PPP was only for quality of life but we Indians have got taken in. Let’s be realistic on Iraq and that hope it breaks.

A review of recent history reveals that India broke Pakistan in 1971, Russia broke itself with USA’s help, Yugoslavia broke thanks to Europe and USA, Czeckoslavia broke into two as did Congo. The world has more states and if Mrs. Gandhi had experienced more trouble from Sri Lanka in the 1980s she would have broken Sri Lanka into two, which the Tamils have been trying for all these years. Mrs. Gandhi had Operation Buster ready and it leaked out.

There is already talk of federalism in Iraq and can the Sunnis and Shias share power? It is highly unlikely and Iran would love the breakup and may be doing all it can to encourage it. Has democracy worked in any Muslim nation so far except in some Islamic form in Malaysia and Indonesia? All other Muslim states are autocratic and Bush and his team know it. They support Saudi Arabia and UAE and others for the arms they sell there. Hence we post the latest debate in which Bush denies Iraq needs to be broken –– even in India every politician first denies it and then it happens. If the India–US nuclear deal goes through we will be able to join USA in its strategy for Iraq and play realpolitik for India's rise. Let’s forget non alignment and such grandiose ideas, as all along we were aligned to the Soviet Union and we gained almost like a mistress and now we are close to USA as a good girlfriend. We have interoperability and navy relations have been called incestuous, when we exercise in the Malabar series –– we have spirits on board which USN does not! Our stock market also follows the Nasdaq and so India has the best of USA and Russia and we must tango with both.

Deadly Month for U.S. Troops

Military Headlines, 19 October 2006

Eleven more U.S. troops were slain in combat putting October on track to be the deadliest month for U.S. forces since the siege of Fallujah nearly two years ago.

From The White House

The White House yesterday rejected partitioning Iraq into three sections based on ethnicity and religion and took issue with reports that President Bush now views the 3-1/2-year-old Iraq war as similar to the war in Vietnam.

With leaks from the Iraq Study Group (ISG), headed by former Secretary of State James A. Baker III, swirling around Washington, press secretary Tony Snow moved to distance Mr. Bush from a few alternative proposals.

"We've thought about partition, for a series of reasons," but Mr. Bush has categorically rejected the idea of breaking Iraq into regions, Mr. Snow said in reply to questions about an article in The Washington Times.

Under such a plan, the nation would be divided into Sunni, Shi'ite and Kurdish regions, each enjoying near autonomy, with a central government handling defense, foreign policy and oil production.

Still, the spokesman left some wiggle room.

"Ideas like partition had been studied. What you're talking now about are tactical adjustments that may be made along the way. And I'm not saying yes and I'm not saying no because I don't know. What you end up doing, again, is you respond to the people on the ground," he said.

While the ISG's report on recommendations is not expected until after the Nov. 7 elections, leaks show that several proposals have been discussed, including partitioning and a phased withdrawal of U.S. troops.

But Mr. Snow yesterday dismissed an article in The Washington Times about a coming "course correction" on war strategy in Iraq.

"That's a bunch of hooey. I mean, it seems to be a collection of actually old hooey brought into a piece of new hooey. So, I mean, you get –– I don't know where that came from, but it didn't come from the White House," he said.

The article in fact quoted several administration members and supporters describing the present situation in Iraq as unsatisfactory and then identified some alternative approaches, listing their pros and cons.

Among them was the idea of partitioning Iraq, which the spokesman described as a "non-starter."

Another proposal that has been floated in advance of the ISG's report is a phased withdrawal, pulling 5 percent of U.S. troops out every two months. Mr. Snow also rejected that notion.

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