US
Secretary of State Condolezza Rice is due to visit
India on March 16, 2005. The time is perhaps ripe to
voice our serious concerns about proliferation of
Tactical Ballistic Missile and Medium Range
Ballistic Missile (TBM/MRBM) technology around our
sub-continent in not so reliable Pakistani custody,
which are “misused” from time-to-time for
“nuclear blackmailing” and to sustain terrorist
activities. India should seek to get proper
“antidotes”, such as the Israeli Arrow 2 and US
Patriot Advanced Capibility (PAC)-3 Surface-to-Air
Missile/Anti-Tactical Ballistic Missile (SAM/ATBM)
systems and related technologies for robust tackling
of “nuclear blackmailing” and defence of our
homeland in extreme circumstances. A robust two-tier
network would also offer a considerable buffer for
India when considering the nuclear asymmetry vs
China.
Condolezza
Rice herself has served as the National Security
Adviser of the US Administration and she is likely
to appreciate the matter better than the rest. With
a political science academic background, she served
in the Bush Administration as Director, and then
Senior Director of Soviet and East European Affairs
in the National Security Council, during the
critical period of German reunification and the
final days of the Soviet Union, from 1989 to March
1991, and as Special Assistant to the President for
National Security Affairs. An international affairs
Fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations, she
served as Special Assistant to the Director of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff. In 1997, and she has served
on the Federal Advisory Committee on Gender
Integrated Training in the Military.
During
the second-half of February 2005, a four-member
high-level US defence team led by Edward Ross of the
Defence Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), had met
officials of the international security division of
the Indian External Affairs and Defence ministries
and presented "a technical brief" of the
Patriot PAC-2. The US administration’s clearance
for a classified technical presentation of PAC-2
system came as part of the Next Step in Strategic
Partnership (NSSP) agreement initiated by the two
countries during 2004. The NSSP envisages
cooperation in what is known as the "quartet
issues" –– civilian space and civilian
nuclear fields, hi-tech trade and missile defence.
Of equal importance was the team’s interaction
with top brass of India's defence services and the
Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO).
The
Indian armed forces should focus on the advanced
PAC-3 version seen in action during the US invasion
of Iraq and is credited with a kill rate of over 95
percent. The Patriot PAC-3 SAM/ATBM system covers a
“wide spectrum” to counter tactical ballistic
missiles, cruise missiles and advanced aircraft. The
missile's range is 70-km and it can reach an
altitude of greater than 24-km. More important from
the technical point-of-view, the PAC-3 SAM/ATBM has
increased effectiveness against tactical ballistic
and cruise missiles, through the use of advanced
“hit-to-kill” technology and Ka-band millimetre
wave seekers. The missile guidance system enables
target destruction through the kinetic energy
released by hitting the target head-on.
Less
known is the fact that apart from enhanced ranged
variants of indigenous Akash SAM/ATBM, India is
presently also working on development of solid-fuel
SAM/ATBM missiles equipped with directional
warheads. The SAM/ATBM system is projected to be
superior to the Patriot PAC-2 and Russia’s S-300
PMU systems, and if developments proceed smoothly,
flight trials will begin in mid-2006 and the yet
unnamed system should be ready to enter service by
2008. The SAM/ATBM will have a mission control
system to conduct target acquisition, classification
and track estimation, among other functions. After
operational deployment it will be integrated with
other defence systems via satellite links and a
secure digital data link that will enable it to
track and transmit data up to a range of 1,000-km.
Here
lies the importance of technology sharing of US
Patriot PAC-3 system and their follow-on programs.
Possibly in relation to the ambitious program, an
active phased-array radar system called Sword Fish
was purchased from Israel in early 2004 and is
undergoing trials at Hasan in Karnataka state.
The
United States Patriot system was initially designed
as an anti-aircraft SAM system. In-spite of
successive upgradation to an ATBM system,
fundamental limitations in this system remain with
respect to target engagement velocities and
interception of TBM systems of a velocity of up to
3000-m/s corresponding approximately to the
ballistic-missile extreme range of 1000-km. Moreover
unlike its competitors, the Patriot does not have
its own ballistic-missile acquisition aid. During
the Gulf War, Patriot batteries were supported by
Over-The-Horizon (OTH) radars deployed in Turkey,
satellite surveillance systems and the Boeing E-8
Joint-Surveillance Target Attack Radar System
(J-STARS) reconnoitring system.
The
main advantage of the Israeli Arrow advanced ATBM
system, jointly developed by United States and
Israel with Raytheon patents, is its capability to
engage tactical missiles up to 60-km altitudes and
over 100-km ranges. Thus the interceptions are both
exo-atmospheric and endo-atmospheric. The Arrow
system is designed to engage Iraq's Scud missiles
and Iran's TBMs targeted throughout Israel. Another
major strength of the Arrow system lies in its
superb EL/M-2090 "Green Pine" L-band,
electronically scanned, solid state, phased array,
dual-mode detection and fire control radar.
Operating at a frequency of 500-MHz to 1,000-MHz it
can detect missiles at ranges of up to 500-km and
provides considerable warning time to alert defences.
In addition data is also received from the US
Defence Space Program (DSP) EW satellites and Boeing
RC-135 Cobra Ball intelligence aircraft.
The
Arrow's lower engagement level is 8-km and it will
need additional weapon systems to be deployed for
protecting it against aircraft attacks. This
“void” is filled by a combination of the Israeli
Patriot PAC-2 and PAC-3 batteries and United States
ship-based AEGIS systems deployed in the
Mediterranean. Thus, a combination of Arrow 2 and
Patriot PAC-3 is critical to provide a reasonably
effective defence against tactical ballistic
missiles with ranges of up to 1000-km. Also the
two-tier ATBM system will be capable of utilising
the "Green Pine" missile tracking radar.
As a result of its huge US input, the Arrow missile
is subject to US approval and, despite Israel's
willingness to supply the system to India, the
United States Department of State have given no
commitment to approve the sale of the system to
India.
But
approval of the Arrow 2 sale and transfer of Patriot
PAC-3 technology is bound to precipitate in a major
breakthrough, initiating close Indo–US cooperation
not only in missile defence, but in larger regional
security issues as well. In addition, arming India
with the Arrow 2 in view of India’s deepening ties
with Israel, could mark the start of just the
international missile defense architecture on
Asia–Pacific region, now increasingly assuming top
priority among Pentagon planners.
Condolezza
Rice along with US Vice-President Dick Cheney and
Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld are reported to
be very keen in establishing deep strategic ties
with India and cement them on permanent basis. The
time has perhaps arrived for the acid-test of
diplomatic skills of the Indian political and
military leadership and the US willingness to enable
India to construct a national ballistic missile
shield to enhance peace and stability in the
potentially volatile Asian Continent.