UK's economy is
doing well but the Iraq and Afghanistan misadventures are now
worrying the common man. On the political and social front UK is in
a state of rethink on all issues and there is disillusionment with
the Government and with PM Tony Blair. Blair has been promising to
step down in favour of Chancellor Brown but keeps hedging and is a
shifty man and Labour is full of corruption tales, sleaze and
overconfidence.
The Tories under Cameron have increased their ratings and
Tony Blair in
USA
in his first personal meeting with President Bush admitted the
forays into Iraq were mistakes but the path had to be stayed. We
predict that the people will demand that British troops get out of
Iraq much faster than the 3/4 years that PM Blair predicts and so a
return home for the troops could be next year.
Iran is soon going
to let loose its radicals in
Iraq
and Afghanistan as the fervour of hate against USA is rising –– more
and more Jehadis are volunteering to help their Shia brothers in
Iraq. India must see the writing on the wall and see how our few
million working in the Middle East do not get disturbed. Anyway
London was the venue of a meeting between FM Shyam Saran and Under
Sec Nicholas Burns.
We attended a lecture given by Saran to a very learned and
inquisitive audience who asked many questions which
India's Foreign
Secretary answered brilliantly in good English style without giving
away any policy.
London was the
venue of a frank assessment of the Indo–US nuclear agreement, and it
was a shaky Foreign Secretary who asserted that even if the deal
does not go through, there will be other elements of the bilateral
relationship with USA which will move forward because there is a
certain logic behind it. "If you look at the Indo–US Joint
Statement, there is of course focus on the civil nuclear deal. There
are many other very important bilateral initiatives such as
knowledge initiative, initiative on agriculture, science and
technology cooperation. So there are a number of very important
elements in the emerging Indo–US relations," he said. "But the fact
is that the Indo–US Nuclear agreement deals with an issue which is
very sensitive in nature and attracts a great deal of attention and
therefore, whether it goes through or not, will have an impact, at
least, on our abilities to take forward many other aspects of the
Indo–US relations," he said addressing the International Institute
for Strategic Studies on "India and the Emerging World Order".
The issue of
Pakistan came up
and we add a piece written by B Raman to say nobody is discussing
China's role in the area of India and Pakistan but it is making
inroads. China has made no official statement on India's nuclear
deal with USA except noises and it knows India has an uphill task
but its presence in the South China Seas, Myanmar, Bangladesh,
Africa and Gwadar port and oil deals with Iran are part of its
‘String of Pearls’ encirclement of India's strategic space. For the
first time Shyam Saran said India was increasing its strategic space
and one questioner at his lecture at IISS asked ‘does it mean what
China is doing’ and he was at a loss for words.
Chinese Presence In Balochistan and Northern Areas
By B. Raman
In my paper of May 17, 2006, titled "Baloch Freedom Fighters
Attack Nuclear Establishment" (http://www.saag.org/papers19/paper1801.html),
I had reported as follows: "The BLA (Baluchistan Liberation Army)
and other Baloch nationalist elements have also stepped up their
campaign against the Chinese engineers and security officials posted
in Gwadar in connection with the project for the construction of the
Gwadar port. A team of Chinese engineers recently visited
Balochistan amidst tight security to carry out a preliminary study
on the possibility of the construction of a road linking Gwadar with
the Karakoram Highway
in the Northern Areas, which is being upgraded, and an oil/gas
pipeline connecting Gwadar with Xinjiang. The idea is that the
Chinese tankers bringing oil from Saudi Arabia and Iran would
download them at Gwadar and from there the energy supplies would be
moved by a pipeline to Xinjiang. This would reduce the Chinese
dependence on the Malacca Straits for the transport of their energy
supplies."
2. This information was confirmed by Mr. Shaukat Aziz,
Pakistan's Prime
Minister, on May 23, 2006, while speaking at a seminar organized by
the Institute of Strategic Studies of Islamabad to mark 55 years of
Sino-Pakistani relations. The "Daily Times" of
Lahore,
in its edition of May 24, 2006, has reported as follows on the
speech delivered by Mr. Aziz: "Pakistan and China are considering a
feasibility study for an oil pipeline from Gwadar port to Western
China to transport China's oil imports from the Gulf, Prime Minister
Shaukat Aziz said on Tuesday. The Gwadar and Karachi ports offer the
shortest access to the Arabian Sea for Western China, as well as
Central Asia, Aziz said at a seminar on 55 years of Pakistan-China
relations, organised by the Institute of Strategic Studies. An oil
pipeline from Gwadar to Western China would greatly reduce the time
and distance for oil transport from the Gulf to China, he said. A
major oil refinery at Gwadar would further facilitate China's oil
imports. Pakistan is now in a position to exploit its strategic
location at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia and West Asia
to promote "corridors of cooperation" including oil and gas
pipelines, electricity grids, and transit trade, the Prime Minister
said. He said the
Karakorum Highway
would soon be upgraded so it could remain open all year round. The
Prime Minister said the two countries were also expanding
cooperation in nuclear energy and space technology. "A significant
area of cooperation between Pakistan and China has been the
harnessing of nuclear technology for peaceful purposes under
international safeguards – for the production of electricity," Aziz
said. "The two countries are working towards further expanding
cooperation in this area."
3. Though Mr. Aziz did not mention this, it has since been
confirmed that President General Pervez Musharraf intends visiting
China next
month to attend a meeting of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation
(SCO). Pakistan, which presently enjoys only an observer status in
the SCO (like India), has mounted a campaign to secure full
membership, towhich China is favourable, but Russia is opposed.
During his visit, plans for further Chinese assistance for the
construction of more nuclear power stations in
Pakistan,
including one in Balochistan, are expected to be discussed, if not
finalised.
4. The upgradation of the Karakoram Highway for which China
has already agreed to give a sum of US $350 million and the
construction of the pipeline, if it is found feasible, are expected
to take at least about seven to eight years, if not longer. In the
meanwhile,
China has started exploring other options if energy supplies from
Iran by sea are interrupted in the eventuality of a US/Israeli
military strike on Iranian nuclear establishments. One of the
options being considered is to move energy supplies from Iran to
Xinjiang by road via Pakistan. It is not clear by which route the
proposed energy convoys from Iran would move to Xinjiang. A team of
Chinese officials has just completed preliminary talks in Islamabad
on this road option. Their meetings were also attended by officials
of the Iranian Embassy in Islamabad.
5. The idea is that the energy convoys from
Iran would cross
over into Balochistan and from there go to Xinjiang. The Chinese
plans to take their energy supplies to Xinjiang, either by a
pipeline as a long-term measure or by road as an emergent measure in
the event of a military conflict between Iran and the US, are likely
to face difficulties because of the quake-prone terrain in
Balochistan and the opposition of the Baloch nationalists to the
project.
6. The Baloch freedom-fighters are already opposed to the
proposed Iran–Pakistan–India gas pipeline unless they also
participate in the talks on the project as the interested fourth
party. They are also opposed to all Chinese-aided projects in
Balochistan. Under these circumstances, it is doubtful whether they
would allow the construction of any Chinese pipeline in their
territory. They may not also allow the road movement of energy
supplies as an emergent
measure.
7. Musharraf is keen for increased Chinese involvement in the
economic development of Balochistan, the Northern Areas (Gilgit and
Baltistan) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The
Chinese already have a number of on-going projects in Balochistan
such as the Gwadar port construction, the construction of the Mekran
Coastal highway connecting
Karachi and the
development of the copper mines of the province.
8. They have now agreed to get involved in the development of
the Northern Areas too. The talks for the upgradation of the
Karakoram Highway
were initiated during the second tenure of Mrs.Benazir Bhutto as the
Prime Minister (1993-96). The Chinese were till now not keen over
the project due to concerns over its likely implications for the
internal security situation in the Muslim (Uighurs) majority
Xinjiang region. Now, their fears of likely disruptions of energy
supplies via
the Malacca Straits have made them overlook their earlier
concerns and agree to the upgradation.
9. Under an agreement signed at
Islamabad on May
23,2006,Pakistan and China have decided to start buse services from
Gilgit to Kasghar and Sust to Tashurgan from June 15, 2006. The bus
service from Gilgit to Kasghar will run on a daily basis, while Sust
to Tashurgan thrice a week. In two days of talks on this subject,
Pakistan was represented by Firdaus Alam, Joint Secretary, Ministry
of Communications, and China by the Deputy Director-General of the
Xinjiang Autonomous Region Communication Department. A proposal to
extend the Islamabad-Kashgar route up to Urumqui was also discussed.
Musharraf has also requested
Beijing
to help in the construction of the controversial Basha dam on the
Indus river in
the Northern Areas. When constructed, this dam is expected to
provide water and electricity to the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP)
and Punjab. The proposal for the dam, which would be detrimental to
the people of the Northern Areas, has been strongly opposed by the
Gilgitis and Baltistanis, who have threatened to start an agitation
on the issue, in emulation of the agitation in Balochistan against
the Gwadar project.
10. While the Chinese have thus responded positively to all
requests from Gen. Musharraf for their involvement in Balochistan
and the Northern Areas, they have shown considerable reluctance to
assist projects in the FATA. A private Chinese company was assisting
in the construction of a minor irrigation project in this area, but
it has suspended its work for more than a year following the
kidnapping of one of its engineers by Uighurs associated with the
International Islamic Front (IIF) of Osama bin Laden. The engineer
was killed when the Pakistani security forces mishandled an attempt
to rescue him.
11. Al Qaeda and the Uighur elements in the IIF have also
started sending out warnings to
Beijing not to get
involved in the FATA, where their sanctuaries are located. Their
recent propaganda has been replete with references to the conspiracy
of the Buddhist pagans against the Muslims, possibly a reference to
China and Japan.
12. Apprehending a possible attack on the Chinese engineers
working in Balochistan and in the construction of the Chashma II
nuclear power station on the eve of or during the forthcoming visit
of Musharraf to China, the Pakistani authorities have ordered a
strengthening of physical security at all projects in which Chinese
personnel are working. The security for the Chinese Embassy in
Islamabad has also
been strengthened.
(The writer
is the Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai .He retired
as Additional Secretary, in the Cabinet Secretariat, Government of
India. He may be contacted at itschen36@gmail.com)
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