The Indo US Nuclear deal will go down as a watershed event,
when
India's
security policy and defence mosaic took on a pragmatic and
outward looking posture –– befitting its size, economic
potential and its geographic location. Jutting into the Indian
Ocean, the Indian peninsula –– with its Nicobar Islands
situated just 50 nautical miles from the mouth of the Malacca
Straits –– India sits astride the trade routes that carry 60%
of the world’s trade especially oil energy. In this era of so
called ‘Cold Peace’ –– no war no peace, energy security is now
a formal part of a nation’s security agenda. It has been
defined as ‘the availability of energy at all times in various
forms, in sufficient quantities and at affordable prices’, by
the United Nations. India imports over 70% of its oil and gas
needs (worth $21b in 2004) which is rising, and is viewed as a
key vulnerability and cause for concern.
India’s PM Dr
Manmohan Singh signed a historic nuclear deal with President
Bush on 18 July 2005 in Washington, to safeguard India’s
future and secure alternate sources for
India’s
energy needs, and on 2 Feb 2006, President Bush on a visit to
India accepted India's plan for separation of civilian and
strategic nuclear facilities. India listed the civil nuclear
facilities which would be subject to IAEA inspection, to
enable India to legitimately import civil nuclear technology
and uranium from USA and the NSG, that at present it is
denied, not being a signatory to the NPT.
With USA’s commitment to help make India a world power, India
has become an accepted nuclear power and has taken on the
mantle to maintain stability in the Indian Ocean region for
which the Indian Navy is being strengthened. Navy Chief
Admiral Arun Prakash articulated it well. “The Indian Navy is
the largest and most capable ‘resident’ Navy in the
Indian Ocean
region, and is seen by most powers as a stabilising force. As
India grows economically India's stake in the seas will grow,
and our maritime power will also increase commiseratively”.
Media reports that
India will
have a base for piracy control in
Madagascar
and so the aspirations have begun to show. Air Chief ACM S P
Tyagi who was in Singapore recently, was not far behind in
India’s quest to develop strategic forces. He stated, “India’s
strategic interest will look at the oil producing and oil
supplying areas. If this hypothesis is somewhat correct, then
we will have to start looking at our strategic boundaries
being somewhere between the Gulf and the Straits of Malacca at
the least”. The IAF is looking to acquire more air-to-air
fuelling tankers, AEW and AWACS assets and 126 advanced
fighters.
In 2005
India was
invited to the G 8 meet at Gleneagles as an observer,
confirming its newly acquired relevance to the West and EU.
India’s
position vis-a-vis China, the undisputed rising power in the
East is not articulated in any policy, but India’s Deputy NSA
and former Ambassador to
China
and Pakistan, Vijay Nambiar minced no words, “Today the
vocabulary of international discourse is changing. In a
growing number of regions in the world, the language of
competition is being replaced by cooperation, autarky by
interdependence, threats are being seen as challenges and
crises as opportunities. As
China
and India grow they face the simultaneous imperative of
asserting their essential interests and emphasizing that their
rise is peaceful and non threatening to their neighbours and
our partners in the region and beyond”.
China’s PM
Wen Jiabao visited India in 2005 with a large delegation of
businessmen to discuss matters of trade policy, and nudge
India towards resolving the border dispute almost on
China’s
terms along the Line of Actual Control conceding
Sikkim
to be part of India. India’s trade with China is fast rising
($16b already in 2005) and Indian investment in China is
growing, though Chinese engineering firms complain they have
not been able to make sufficient inroads in
India,
as some of their bids for infrastructure projects have been
rejected as “not security cleared”.
India was
invited to the East Asia Summit and relations between India
and Singapore in security terms could be termed as incestuous.
A review of Japan the current economic power in the East,
which is experiencing frosty relations with China is also
called for. Japan which is heavily dependent on imported
hydrocarbons through the Indian Ocean has made overtures to
support India’s strategic buildup and offered resources to
cooperate towards stability and invest more heavily in to
India’s infrastructure. Their Chief of JSDF was in Delhi and
held secret parleys a month ago. PM Junichiro Koizumi’s visit
to India in mid 2005 was the first for a Japanese PM after the
1998 nuclear blasts. Out of the gaze of the media, numerous
Track II initiatives have progressed to discuss security
cooperation. Japan is constrained by Article 9 of its
Constitution to self defence under a US umbrella, but changes
are likely. Admiral Arun Prakash visited Japan in September
and DG Coast Guard VAdm AK Singh in November, when CGS Samar
exercised with Japan’s MSA off Moji and the event was
televised in
Japan.
Condoleezza Rice was seen in a gorgeous long blue dress at
the Presidential Banquet after the signing ceremony on 2nd
February and she had visited
India
in 2005 to chalk out future US-India relations and numerous
military exchanges at high level took place in 2005. In
November Defence Minster Pranab Mukherjee signed a historic
wide ranging US–India Defence Framework with Mr Donald
Rumsfeld.
India’s leg up in its ‘Look East’ policy saw India sign a
Comprehensive Economic Cooperation agreement with Singapore
providing concessions, which observers say could pull in
surplus Saudi and Mid East oil money to India, and India
participated in the East Asia Summit. India played an active
role in the WTO negotiations in 2005 — these and the nuclear
deal are perhaps the best indicators of the pivotal role that
India has begun to play in the emerging Asian balance of
power. |