New
Delhi, 06 March 2005
Oxford
University Press 2005
pp
382; Rs.495
The
blurb on the jacket of Stephen Cohen’s new book
states: “Whatever be the choices which Pakistan
makes for itself, possible future scenarios, which
Cohen suggests, make this book important not just to
political scientists, and strategic analysts, but
also to policy makers, diplomats, journalists,
defence personnel, business people, and the informed
general reader.” It could have also added that
this was also a book for those who know little or
nothing about Pakistan. It is probably the best
first book to read on Pakistan and an ideal textbook
for undergraduates in an American university doing
Pakistan 101 as a requirement for a major in South
Asian studies. It will fill you in on Pakistan
without making you any wiser. There is nothing new
in it and if any of our policy makers, diplomats,
journalists, defence personnel and strategic
analysts were to find utility in it, it would only
suggest that they are now serious about remedying
their ignorance.
It
is nevertheless a masterly effort that could serve
as a model for any aspiring Indian author wishing to
read a serious book on a serious subject. It does
not have a single sentence that starts with
“I think or I believe…” for it is not a
book of opinions but a book that carefully analyses
facts. It is extremely well researched, documented
and is a treasure trove of information on Pakistan.
The reader can find nuggets strewn about that will
enrich one’s perspective about Pakistan. One real
beauty is on page 224. It reads: “The focal point
of Punjabi domination was and remains the army.
Seventy-five percent of the army is drawn from three
Punjab districts (Rawalpindi, Jhelum and Campbellpur)
and two adjacent districts in the NWFP (Kohat and
Mardan). These districts contain only 9 percent of
Pakistan’s male population. The officer corps is
drawn from a wider, more urban base but is still
Punjabi, often the sons of junior commissioned
officers.” That Pakistan is dominated by Punjabis
(57.7%) is well known, but even within the Punjabi
homeland (25.8%) that it is three districts closely
knit by clan and marriage that dominate the army
tells us a lot about how that country remains so
easily under the influence of the army.
It
is well known that the Pakistan Army is the bedrock
upon which the Pakistani system rests. Cohen writes
that “for the foreseeable future, the army’s
vision of itself, its domestic role, and shaping
Pakistan’s strategic environment will be the most
important factors shaping Pakistan’s identity.”
Since that is so, the only influences capable of
removing the blinkers on that vision are outside
Pakistan –– the USA and India. It is clear that
the USA is not in a hurry to expose that vision to
the reality. Its posse in pursuit of Osama bin Laden
needs a somewhat acquiescent Pakistan for succor and
space. Whether they are fully co-operating with the
Americans is another matter, for the Pakistan
establishment is expert on handling the Americans.
In the words of a young Pakistani woman (page 327),
“Pakistani officials, like Pakistani beggars,
become alert when they see Americans approaching.”
We also know that Americans seem to often find
reassurance when palms are outstretched before them.
On
the other hand India stands confused about what it
is to do about Pakistan. Its policy making elite is
torn by the sentimentalism of the Punjabi elite that
has found refuge and notable influence in India’s
capital –– Manmohan Singh and Inder Gujral are
notable among them –– and the irrationality of
fanatical Hindu nationalists, many of who are also
part of that elite. Though a warm nostalgia and
implacable hate separate them they are one in their
opposition to the idea of Pakistan. Both see
Pakistan as an integral part of a greater Indian
nation and still entertain some notions of a future
political union. This notion of forging a
brotherhood based upon a cultural affinity and even
history are not quite in consonance with the current
reality.
In
the north dominated India; the Muslim rulers or the
British Raj have been gone for over half a century
now. The Indian and Pakistani Punjabi may have much
in common, but that is not important to the rest of
India. The idea of Pakistan or more importantly what
it is now is well accepted in the rest of India. But
the Delhi centered establishment –– caught in
the cross currents of nostalgia and hate ––
cannot but prevent Pakistan from seeing this
dominant sentiment that prevails in the rest of
India. And one cannot blame Pakistanis for thinking
of Delhi as India.
What
is so overwhelmingly important to Punjabis like
Kuldip Nayar and Mubashir Hasan in India and
Pakistan is not so to the rest of India and it now
seems even to the rest of Pakistan. India has
generally sorted out its “Punjabi problem” with
a vigorous democracy that has ensured a shift in
political primacy. Pakistan is yet to do so and may
not even be able to do it considering that it is so
overwhelmingly Punjabi. This Pakistan is not a
homeland for India’s Muslims but more an Empire of
the Punjabi Muslim. While India needs to constantly
nudge Punjabi Pakistan to reshape its perspective of
India, the primeval hatred of the Hindu nationalists
only further tightens the grip of the Punjabi army
over Pakistan.
Stephen
Cohen acknowledges the help of “many Washington
friends and colleagues who generously shared their
knowledge and insights.”Most if not all these are
the very people who shaped US policy towards
Pakistan and thus Pakistan’s towards India. These
are all veterans of the Cold War and have remained
generally suspicious of an India that wants to sit
on the international high table but with a mind of
its own. Most of them are well known and some like
Selig Harrison are even well respected in India. But
Polly Nayak among them deserves a special mention.
She is an old intelligence hand and has just stepped
out of the cold into the Brookings Institution,
after recently retiring as the head of the CIA’s
South Asia section. She of course doesn’t need to
read the book.
The
CIA wrote most of it and look at the harvest South
Asia is reaping? Dr. Manmohan Singh is fond of the
quoting Victor Hugo as saying “nothing is as
irresistible as an idea whose time has come.” What
Hugo wrote was actually somewhat different. He
wrote: “On resiste a l’invasion des armees; on ne resiste pas
a l’invasion des idees” (A stand can be made
against invasion by an army; no stand can be made
against invasion by an idea).
The
Americans continue to prepare Pakistan against
invasion by an army, whereas India still seems
incapable of invading it with an idea. “The Idea
of Pakistan” doesn’t offer any ideas on how to
end this impasse.
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