Our
colleague just returned from Myanmar, after partaking in their
three-day New Year “Thingyan Festival”. Thingyan means New
Era, and is celebrated with a dousing of water like our Holi, but
without colours. Charities are held for monks, offerings are made to
them and scented water is used to clean all statues of Buddha. Food
is freely distributed, elders are shown respect with recitations,
and animals are freed. The monks recite Parittas to purify the mind
and body and free people from dangers.
This
year the military leaders requested the people to strive with vigor,
and pray for the success of the National Convention, which is to be
held from 17th May with promises to adopt a new Constitution.
The
first thing that strikes the foreign visitor to Myanmar (The Golden
Land) is that the name Burma given to it by the British, (so called
because the Yangoon area was inhabited by a majority of Burmans), is
anathema and not to be used. It is the name Myanmar that unites the
various ethnic clans, who by the 70s, had turned the land into
multiple insurgencies, with their opium cultivating warlords and
their powerful armies. The next thing that one notices is that the
Myanmarese steeped in pacifist Theravada Buddhism, are a classless
society, with over 100 dialects spoken by 20 varied ethnic
groupings.
Myanmar
is a nation of poor people, though there is no abject poverty to be
seen, as is seen in the villages of India. Of the 50 million
population, (no census since 1983), Burmans constitute 68%, Shans
9%, Karens 7%, Arakanese 4%, Chinese 3%, with the Mons, Indians and
others accounting for the balance 9 per cent. There are only three
large cities Yangoon, Mandalay and Moulmein, whilst the rest of the
people who live in the hills and countryside are yet to keep apace
with the modern world. The Army (Tadmadaw) is in total control and
has negotiated peace with the war and area lords, promising them
federal autonomy in the future –– the same circumstances as
those of the Kashmiris, Nagas and Assamese in the North East of
India.
The
political history of Myanmar subsequent to its Independence from the
British is an unfortunate story of a repression of its people and
their aspirations, and under-utilization of vast natural resources
of gems, gas, hydroelectric power and talents. Myanmar was, in a
sense, friendless, till it joined ASEAN in July 1995.
Myanmar,
geographically situated in the shadow of two of the most populated
nations –– India and China –– was ostracized even by India,
and had to perforce, lean on China. China has strategically taken
full advantage of the opportunity to make inroads into Myanmar with
economic, military and infrastructure assistance, which has been
appreciated. At present it is building a large dam over the Irrawady
River at Werya in Central Myanmar to provide 400 MW of power.
To
emphasize the importance of Myanmar one needs to recall the time
when Britain had completed the annexation of Burma in 1885, and the
London Times correspondent had reported –– “We can now drive
the iron horse from India down the valley of the Irrawady and via
Moulmein, to the very gates of China without any impediments.
Properly used, our new possession may prove a key to unlock
provinces commercially still more important than India.”
Only
a visit to Myanmar makes one realize how close and long a border of
1600 km India has with that country along all its North Eastern
states of Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Nagaland.
Unfortunately that area of India, is India’s most underdeveloped,
so this has been Myanmar’s loss too. The Border Roads Organisation
completed a 160 km road from Tamu in Manipur to Kalemyo in Myanmar
to promote trade from the national highway point at Moreh. There is
potential for India to receive gas from Myanmar.
Post
Independence the world has not appreciated what havoc was caused by
the money generated by its Poppy cultivating warlords, personal
corruption of its leaders and a difficult geography and ethnic
heterogeneity. It led to insurgencies, which were waged to gain
political control of the state.
From 1962 Gen
Ne Win and the Tatmadaw (Army) captured power and demolished
parliamentary democracy and suspended the Constitution. Hence, it is
the Army in one form or another, which has ruled the country with a
form of Military socialism.
With
no friends save the Chinese, the country has always been crying to
be rescued from its inherent instability. India can contribute and
is doing so now it appears, but for many years especially during the
Indira, Sanjay and Rajiv Gandhi period their personal friendship
with Madam Daw Kin Kyi (Burmese Ambasador to India in 1960) the wife
of Gen Aung San, a hero who fought for Independence and was
assassinated in 1947 coloured our relations –– as Aung
San Suu Kyi their daughter was under political repression.
In
1988 the Tadmadaw overcame a severe and bloody uprising and a
Government by the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC)
and State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) came into force in
1997, but human rights are not easily availed, as the power of the
nation lies in the hands of the top Generals. Though Gen Ne Win died
on 5th December 2002 at the age of 91 democracy has
evaded Myanmar. Elections were held in 1990 and the
National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi,
captured 392 of the 485 seats against the military backed National
Unity Party (NUP), which got with only 12 seats. The Tatmadaw
promptly countermanded the election and put Suu Kyi under house
arrest.
The
Army is now genuinely looking for a Constitution, which will ensure
that the Armed forces do have a say in the running of the country so
that there is no disintegration. The Tatmadaw has the leading role
of national politics of the future. The military is hesitant to
relinquish power because they fear retribution. Aung San Suu Kyi can
safeguard this if she agrees to a power sharing formula on the
Indonesian model and not just a transitional arrangement between
civilians and the military, which she favours. The example of power
sharing between civilian and military establishments in Pakistan
comes to the fore. Speculation is rife that the Nobel laureate Aung
San Suu Kyi will be freed from restrictions as the NLD was allowed
to reopen its Yangon headquarters in April to prepare for the
National Convention on 17 May.
The
Armed Forces
The
Tatmadaw (Army) has scored a number of significant military
successes against insurgents since 1988, and if called upon to do
so, would fight hard and well to defend the country. Before 1988,
the Myanmar Army was structured and deployed primarily for internal
security operations –– both to quell civil dissent in major
population centers and to conduct counter-insurgency operations in
rural districts against communist guerrillas, ethnic separatists and
the armies of narcotics “warlords”. However, greater emphasis is
being given to conventional defence roles, and to healthier
integration with the civil population. It has also given higher
priority to participation in civil infrastructure development
projects.
Few
realise that as our next-door neighbour, India should contribute
substantially to Myanmar’s efforts. The Western world has overly
imposed sanctions on that poor nation because it is not a democracy,
and because their darling Sun Kyi is wrongfully confined to house
arrest in Yangon. Information on the Armed Forces is scant but they
are devoid of latest equipment and the industrial base to maintain
equipment is lacking, but recent Indian contacts have been good and
MOD received a Myanmarese delegation at DEFEXPO 04.
The
Myanmarese Army
The
Tatmadaw has a total strength of about 325,000, which is broken up
into 10 Infantry divisions. The armoured brigades consist of around
100 Chinese Type-69 and 63 tanks. The artillery comprises of 16
Soltam supplied 155mm guns, 16 M-46 130mm and 96 M101 105mm guns
besides 40 Type 63 107mm MBRLs, APCs, anti aircraft guns, armoured
vehicles and anti aircraft guns. The Chinese have supplied SAM HN-5A
and SA-16 missiles, and Bulgaria has reportedly supplied Igla-1E
SAMs. The large ground forces are assigned among the 12 regional
commands and the regional commanders ensure that the Army personnel
are provided steady pay, food and a degree of perks of power and
prestige. The entire senior hierarchy of the army governs the
country. Gen Than Shwe, Head of State, is also Chairman of the State
Peace and Development Council (SPDC). Lt Gen Maung Aye is Vice
Chairman of the SPDC and Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces.and Gen
Khin Nyunt former Intelligence Chief has been appointed Prime
Minister. He is thought to be a moderate though he was the adopted
son of Gen Ne Win as per reports. Lt Gen Soe Win is the first
Secretary while Lt Gen Ye Myint controls the Ministry of Defence.
The
Air Force
The
Air Force strength is about 9000 and is reported to include some 100
aircraft of which only 60 percent are operational as the fleet
consists of 40 F7s and 20 A-5M Chinese supplied MiG and Bomber
equivalents. The transport fleet consist of 3 F-27, 4 FH-227, 4
Cessna 180s, 1 Cessna Citation II, and 12 Chinese K-8 Karakorams,
which are also used for training. The helicopter fleet comprises 4
squadrons, which include 16 Bell 205 and 206 supported by 11 Mi-17
and 10 PZL W-3 Sokol. The Canadian Helicopter Company operates
Sirkosky helicopters in a civilian role and twin Otters from Yangon
to support the offshore oil fields, which supply gas by pipelines to
Thailand (also used by VIPs). The Air Force is now equipped with 12
MiG-29 but the aircraft have not been seen carrying out night flying
–– they are reported to be equipped with the R-27 (AA-10 Alamo)
missiles. The Chief of Air Staff is Lt Gen Myat Hein and he visited
India in 2003 as a guest of Air Chief Marshal S Krishnawamy and is
reportedly looking for assistance from India.
The
Navy
The
Navy of 10,000 includes around 800 Naval Special Forces and besides
Yangon at Monkey Point on the Yangon river which is the main Naval
base, the other bases
are at Bassein, Mergui, Moulmein, Seikyi and Sittwe. The fleet
consists of 6 Chinese supplied missile boats of the Houxin class
which have 4 C-801 SSM, 18 patrol boats including Chinese Hainan
class and locally built riverine craft totaling around 30. The
miscellaneous craft consists of 10 small landing craft utility and a
diving tender. The Navy still attempts to run 2 old US supplied
corvettes PCE-827, and the Chief of Naval Staff is Rear Admiral Soe
Thein, India’s Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Madhvendra Singh
visited Myanmar in September 2003. INS Ranvijay visited Rangoon in
February 2003 and Coast Guard ships Varad and Bhikhaiji Cama visited
Yangon from 12-15th May 2003. This augurs well for
contacts.
Defence
Industries
The
support of Chinese industry in the civil and defence sector is very
evident and most domestic products are either Chinese or low end
Japanese. In the case of Defence R&D under the Electrical and
Mechanical Engineering Corps (EMEC) the thrust has been to produce
LMGs, automatic rifles and motors and ammunition at a factory near
Meiktila, reportedly assisted by the Singapore Technologies. It is
learnt Myanmar Armed Forces have looked to assistance from India for
its Air Force and Navy. The Chairman Garden Reach Engineers and
Shipbuilder, Kolkata had also visited Myanmar and received a
Myanmarese team at Kolkata suggesting there was scope for
cooperation.
Conclusion
Despite
discontent among the intelligentsia of Myanmar the common people
accept that the Tadmadaw has kept law and order under control by
imposing rigid rules and permitting small businesses to flourish. In
1980 ian amnesty to bring in Myanmarese money abroad with foreign
partners has seen many hotels, joint ventures and businesses
flourish. Tourism is on the rise for the economical and interesting
canvas that Myanmar offers. Dollars are accepted in the market place
at 850–1000 Kyat each, depending on supply and demand factors.
There
are good signs of Myanmar opening up to the world. UN Secretary
General’s envoy for Myanmar Tan Sri Razali and ASEAN have done
much to goad the Tadmadaw to organize a National Convention on 17
May to adopt a new constitution and prepare for elections de novo.
India
has a stake in this in its ‘Look East policy’ to assist Myanmar
and both have a stake in transforming the Bay of Bengal littoral
into a community of States cooperating across a broad front, under
the BIMSTEC banner.
The
Myanmarese Island of Cocos is just a stone’s throw from the
Andaman coastline and so New Delhi and Yangon also have a
responsibility to ensure that the waters of the Bay of Bengal remain
tranquil and do not come under destabilizing external influences.
India is now beginning to understand that it cannot shape the future
balance of power in Asia, without showing the political will to take
difficult decisions and pursue its interests. Myanmar’s future
should certainly appear on that radar.