The elections to the US Congress are due
on 7 Nov and by the morning of 8 Nov, we will know the
results which will be crucial for the Indo–US nuclear deal, on which
PM Manmohan Singh and national security adviser M K Narayanan have
staked so much. It will be good if the agreement goes through as we
will have all the privileges of the NPT without signing it. The
world may call it hegemony but as India’s economy is doing well and
India has the most professional Armed Force in Asia, it can afford
to be a bit Bolshy. The elections will be crucial for the world’s
Geo and Eco Strategy and so we offer the three scenarios which
viewers may look for on CNN. India’s Army Chief Gen J J Singh will
be in USA during that period for a six-day visit. He follows ACM S P
Tyagi to USA and the Indians are being really feted. We alluded to
the relationship between the Navies being very close and the other
two services would like to outdo the Navy.
First –– which we see as a possibility
–– the Democrats gain the House in DC in which case our prediction
is that the US withdraw from Iraq will be sooner than later and
there will be a dip in the US Economy as Defence companies of the
Military Industrial Complex will see a downturn and US morale may
flag.
Second –– which we feel most confident
about –– is that the House will be divided with no clear cut
majority for the Republicans or the Democrats, but a slender lead
for either one. In such case there will be confusion on policies.
India will have to push hard for the Indo–US nuclear deal.
Third –– the Republicans romp home with
a clear majority –– which may be very difficult to come by, in which
case President Bush will say I told you so and carry on regardless
and the US–India nuclear deal will look good but Under Secretary
Nicholas Burns has decided to postpone his trip to India as he is
also not sure till 8 Nov and this is no time to travel.
In any case we say Jihad will not die as
philosopher Nitzche always told us the world will always be riddled
with isms which will run their course –- Nazism, Communism,
Capitalism or call it Globalism (which Prem Shankar in his latest
book The Twilight of Nation State claims will lead to more regional
wars) –– and now we have Terrorism. And the world's mightiest
fighting force USA and UK continue to kill Islamo fascists in Iraq
and Afghanistan currently the key battleground in the global jihad.
But there cannot be much question that at this point in the war
against radical Islam, the radicals are still on the march. Their
spirit which is religious cannot be broken. Even in Iran President
Ahmadinejad's nuclear threats are understandable. He feels he has a
right to nuclear power and this brings about military nuclear
ambitions and Adam Smith had stated ‘the Sovereign’s prime duty is
national security’ and Iran feels if Israel can have the nuclear
bomb then Iran too needs a deterrent. Hezbollah's war on Israel
showed Jihad ability and spirit to master missile technology and the
plot to blow up jetliners leaving London, shows Jihad is aggressive,
relentless, and unequivocal in their determination to defeat the
West.
India is lucky we just have odd Jihadi
problems in the country and we need to assist Indian Muslims to
become a part of the mainstream and we wonder why a clever man like
PM Manmohan Singh has not enforced the Constitution article to make
education compulsory and free up to the age of 14? Kashmir is a
problem of our own making and Gen JJ Singh has said it is not as
serious as it was. Meanwhile, Western Europe is turning into Eurabia
as a fading native white population with its effete secular culture
of pacifism and relativism and money making is superseded by a
surging Muslim diaspora. Most Muslims are not Islamists or
terrorists, of course. However, most of them keep quiet in the face
of the radical offensive. It is the radicals and the poor and those
who feel Islam is being threatened who keep driving the jihad
forward.
Yet Bush is clever to say "If this
country lets down its guard, it will be a fatal mistake." Americans
seem unable to recognize the threat, or to believe that they, their
liberties, and the lives of innumerable human beings are truly at
stake and it needs a different approach. But radical Islam is not
going away. Like Nazism and Communism, it is (in Senator Rick
Santorum's words) "an ideology that produces the systemic murder of
innocents." Like those earlier totalitarianisms, it will go on
murdering until it is sees itself as self destructive –– as
Gorbachov saw for communism in Russia –– with KGB and other excesses
of defence spending. This will take time and please read our piece
that Iraq may break into three and the days are coming closer with
the death sentence given to Saddam Hussein.
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