Economists have predicted that the year 2007 would be another good year for the World's economy –– driven very largely by USA's military spending, now touching $520b per year. China was putting its reserves into US bonds, hoping perhaps to one day make USA subservient and challenge its unipolar status. Russia would support that tacitly. This was China's gamble as it moved into Africa and Central Asia, and kept India occupied by supplying ships, arms and planes to Pakistan, whose economy too has done well on doles. China calls it the peaceful rise of China, as large scale wars seem ruled out. India too is gaining with huge inflows of investments and even Ruias of Essar who were not doing so well earlier, are now capable of raising $20b to buy out Hutch Mobile as per market rumours, or rake in billions by selling out their stake in Hutch. These were good signs for India's stock market and investments.

Iraq

Unless there are political bumps or Iraq begins to burn with civil war this seems to be the brief outlook for 2007 for India to work on and keep up dialogue Pakistan. The Indian Army can take the killings in Kashmir and North East in their stride. PM Manmohan Singh, a brilliant economist was not unduly perturbed with what we see as overvaluations in the Indian market. So all this must be good for India.

The execution of Saddam Hussein on December 30, 2006, on the recommendation of the Prime Minister of Iraq had not so far evoked as much retaliation from the Sunnis and the Muslim community as was expected, but the story of violence is yet to show its ugly face. The event may have set in some planning by the Sunnis who seem to have been very hurt, but the US Forces and Iraqi Army and Police were on high alert. The Shias rejoiced, and no nation with such divide can get a Constitution in place and as Iran too is angered by sanctions they will try to stir up trouble for Iraq and support Islamists.

In fact Islamists do not believe in democracy through a Constitution but only in the Islamic Sharia law. We still maintain that Iraq could break into two or three parts with separate Sunni Shia and Kurd areas. This may happen only after the US forces withdraw –– British forces had already started the process and set time lines. USA's military actions will now be decided by Bill Gates and there will be new pressures by the new force of Democrats in the US Congress.

The Neighbourhood

Officially India had indicated that Sadaam should not be executed and then lamented the execution but EAM Pranab Mukherjee was very swift to add that this had nothing to do with India–US relations. It may have been better to wait and watch but India's statement appeared to be to appease the Muslim sentiments, as UP elections were hotting up and the Congress was being led by young Rahul Gandhi, who now sports a Gandhi cap. These will be interesting days as Mulayam was being targeted all over with what goes wrong in UP, even if it was not of his making.

Pranab Mukherjee was off to Pakistan around 12th Jan and we will watch the progress he makes on Sir Creek, as a Joint Survey is finally being held from 15th January. The peace process appeared to move forward with proposals of Joint Management of Kashmir by Gen Musharraf and India's Ambassador Lambah had discussions with Pakistan's NSA.  Singapore PSA got the contract to run the Gwadar Port and it could become a mini Dubai in the years ahead.

In the Northeast all is not quiet with ULFA as they have backtracked on the cease fire issues and they wanted their 5 compatriots in custody released and now Manipur is more or less in Army control and Army will be back in action in Assam where Games are to be held. Home Sec Duggal has rushed there.

 It seems India is not interfering in Sri Lanka where the beefed up military is in action and even hit the Sea Tigers by air. Our conjecture was that Sonia Gandhi would not easily forgive LTTE and Supremo Prabhakaran for her late husband's killing and the RAW would be happy to see LTTE tamed and possibly NSA and PMO not so much as MEA or the Armed Forces that would be driving India's Sri Lanka policy. India’s NSA is a brilliant Congress loyalist and that too augurs well for coordination between PMO and the UPA Chairperson. PM Manmohan Singh also called the opposition to break bread over lunch in the New Year and hoped they will do less opposing and ex NSA Brajesh Mishra and US Interlocutor Jaswant Singh were there too, to let off steam.

According to B Raman's latest paper posted below, there was unlikely to be any decrease in the level of violence in 2007 and he had totted up all the casualties from the time US went into Afghanistan and Iraq. Many Muslims all over the world were on holiday, and Eid was being celebrated on 1st Jan and the various outfits of Mujahidin Shura Council (MSC) were yet to show their cards.

2006 IN IRAQ

By B. Raman

In 2006, the total number of US fatalities in Iraq reached 3003. Of these, 139 were killed during the invasion and the war that followed before the capture of Baghdad on April 9, 2003. The remaining 2864 Americans were killed in the fight against the foreign terrorists and Iraqi resistance fighters after the occupation of Baghdad.As against this, the total US fatalities in Afghanistan since the beginning of the so-called Operation Enduring Freedom on October 7, 2001, came to 357 only.

2. The US incurred 822 fatalities in Iraq in 2006 as against 846 in 2005.Improvised explosive devices (IEDs) were responsible for 445 fatalities in 2006 as against 427 in 2005. The number of car bomb attacks came to an average of about 70 per month in the first four months of the year. In the next four months, it went up to an average of about 80 per month. The figures for the last four months are not yet available. There were many fatalities in which it was not clearly specified by the US authorities whether the deaths were due to IEDs. Hence, the number of fatalities due to IEDs could be more than what is indicated above.

3.  A tabulation by the Iraqi ministries of Health, Defense and Interior, showed that 14,298 Iraqi civilians, 1,348 policemen and 627 soldiers were killed in the violence that raged in the country in 2006.

4. Apart from the continuing high rate of violence, the other significant developments were the following:

• The formation of a Mujahidin Shura Council (MSC) on January 15, 2006, as a united front ofthe following six Salafist insurgent groups: Al Qaeda in Iraq, Jaysh al-Ta’ifah al-Mansourah (the Army of the Victorious Sect), Saraya Ansar al-Tawhid (Monotheism Supporters’ Battalions), Saraya al-Jihad al-Islami (Islamic Jihad Battalions), Saraya al-Ghuraba’ (Strangers’ Battalions), and Kata’ib al-Ahwal (Horrors’ Brigades). A seventh insurgent group, Jaysh Ahl al-Sunnah wa-al-Jama’ah (the Army of the People of the Sunnah and Community), joined two weeks later. The MSC is headed by Abdallah Rashid Salih al-Baghdadi, believed to be an Iraqi.

• The killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the high profile leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq, by the US security forces on June 7, 2006. His successor Abu Hamzah al-Muhajir, alias Abu Ayyub al-Masri, stated to be an Egyptian, has been low profile as compared to Zarqawi. Moreover, learning from the mistake committed by them in the past by their over-projection of Zarqawi, thereby giving him a larger than life size image, the Americans have avoided a similar over projection of Abu Hamzah.

• A statement posted on the internet on October 12,2006, announcing that “the Mujahidin Shura Council in Iraq, Jaysh al-Fatihin [the Army of the Conquerors], Jund al-Sahabah [the Soldiers of the [Prophet’s] Companions], Saraya Ansar al-Tawhid wa-al-Sunnah [the Supporters of Monotheism and Sunnah Battalions], many of the faithful tribal shaykhs, and others who will announce themselves later, have decided to form an alliance they named the Alliance of the Perfumed Ones” (the Mutayibin Coalition, a reference to a pact in which the leaders of Prophet Muhammad's tribe agreed that they would not let each other down) The announcement on October 15, 2006, of the formation by the MSC of an Islamic Emirate of Iraq to be headed by Amir Abu ‘Umar al-Baghdadi, which would include the provinces of Baghdad, Anbar, Diyala, Ta’mim, Salah al-Din and Ninawah, as well as parts of the provinces of Babil and Wasit. It is not yet clear whether the name Abu ‘Umar al-Baghdadi is an alias for Abdallah Rashid Salih al-Baghdadi

• This was followed by an announcement by a number of non-Salafist insurgent groups of the formation of a 25-member Political Bureau for Iraqi Resistance, consisting of representatives of the Ba’athists, the Iraqi National Alliance, the Armed Forces General Command, Patriotic Communists Against the Occupation, the Association of Muslim Scholars, Grand Ayatullah Ahmad al-Hassani al-Baghdadi, the Nationalist Nasserite Trend, the Islamic Army, al-Rashidin Army, and the 1920 Revolution Brigades. Members of the Political Bureau include Dr Qays Muhammad Nuri, Dr Khudayyir Wahid al-Murshidi, Awni Qalamji, Ahmad Karim, Yusuf Hamdan, Abd al-Razzaq al-Sa’adi, Abd al-Karim Hani, Arshad Zibari, Buthaynah al-Nassiri and Abd al-Jabbar al-Kubaysi. This has been interpreted as a split between Al Qaeda and the Iraqi Salafist groups on the one side and the non-Salafist pro-Saddam Hussein groups on the other. It has also been interpreted to mean that the non-Salafists have refused to recognise the so-called Islamic Emirate of Iraq on the ground that it would formalise the split of Iraq and the creation of a separate State for the Sunnis.

• A statement by Abu Hamzah on November 10, 2006, pledging his total allegiance to Abu Umar al-Baghdadi and appealing to the Ansar al-Sunah Army, the Islamic Army, and the Al-Mujahidin Army to do likewise. This would indicate that these three organisations were probably not prepared to support him and the formation of the Islamic Emirate of Iraq.

• In his message of December 20, 2006, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the No. 2 to Al Qaeda, blessed the formation of the so-called Emirate and called upon the Muslims of the world to support what he called “the gateway for the liberation of Palestine and the revival of the Islamic caliphate.”

5. The differences between the Salafist and non-Salafist elements among the insurgent groups has not come in the way of their maintaining a high level of violence against the US forces as well as those associated with the Shia-dominated Iraqi Government. Any possibility of the US taking advantage of these differences has been weakened by the execution of Saddam Hussein on December 30, 2006. There is unlikely to be any decrease in the level of violence in 2007.

(The writer is Additional Secretary (Retd.), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai.)

E-mail:itschen36@gmail.com