INDIA
DEFENCE CONSULTANTS
WHAT'S HOT?
––
ANALYSIS OF
RECENT HAPPENINGS |
OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM -- AN IDC ANASLYSIS by Ranjit Rai
|
New
Delhi, 26 September 2001 Prefix
–– A Precursor to CDS? IDC
congratulates Lt Gen P S Joshi on his appointment as the Chief of the
Integrated Staff (whatever that may mean), it is in lieu of CDS as far as
duties go till one is appointed. As a consequence Lt Gen Sihota the DGMO
will move as the GOC-in-C Southern Command. We have always had great
respect for those who have headed Operations and Intelligence in the three
Services. In most cases they have to wait for orders while Committees with
bureaucrats, RAW and IB people debate their tasks, and this is a debility
in India's security set up. We believed and still do, that a CDS with some
operational control over the Services was the way to go, but then the CDS
matter is yet to be resolved, more for political than logical reasons. Maybe
our analysis of OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM, which we paste below, will throw up some
lessons and we await your feedback. OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM WE
have received several requests to predict what OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM will
entail, hence this analysis. Changed
Scenario Change
is the only constant and the world is seeing it as the equations have
changed after 11 September and so has the mode of warfare to deal with the
scourge of terrorism. The new wa,r which USA has promised to wage, will be
different from any other. It will include information and media warfare
which is already unfolding. Use of electronic means to choke the enemy’s
communications, financial squeeze of persons and agencies and their access
to their bank accounts –– which will debilitate the terrorist
organizations the most –– and finally movement of people from the
Third World to the West will become more difficult. There will be
ostracism of nations, beginning with Afghanistan, which will include
shipping and air-services besides the diplomatic pressures never seen
before to co-operate with USA and the West, or be placed in the black
list. Hence the words below are important. The
New American Policy “Let
no one doubt the difficulty of the task ahead which may take a long time.
This will be a war that will not be won in weeks or months. It will be a
long, difficult struggle –– year in and year out. The objective is
total victory –– to vanquish all those willing to take innocent lives
for extremist ideology. Terrorists have long threatened the body politic,
but in this era of modern communications and weapons of mass destruction,
they pose a new frightening peril that must no longer be minimised or
ignored.” “In
this effort, the United States asks for the support of all governments of
goodwill from all corners of the planet. On September 15, President Bush
telephoned Prime Minister Vajpayee to express America’s gratitude for
India’s offer of assistance. Most of all, America is asking for the
support of ordinary men and women everywhere. In the short space of a few
minutes on a radiant autumn day two weeks ago, the lives of thousands of
innocent people were ended. As a tribute to those who lost their lives, we
should all join to end this abomination.” These
are not IDC‘s words but those of Ambassador Blackwill, spoken and
published in New Delhi. Before coming to India as Bush’s friend and
representative, he was in USA’s foreign service for 22 years and taught
military strategy and diplomacy at Harvard’s Kennedy School for the last
12. These
statements relate to US policy as he is their spokesman in India and
should know what to interpret. Military strategy and tactics are not
limited to American brains only, hence our opinion offers a futuristic
scenario of what action President Bush and his experienced security team
may embark upon, to keep the promise to nab Osama Bin Laden and also get
his Lieutenants and destroy his Al Queda network as the first step. Other
steps would follow and the world should never underestimate the resolve of
USA. Even Promod Mahajan who was in Moscow on 11 Sep admits the power and
reach of Americans and has confirmed India will fully support USA in this
war. Crisis Management Systems At the outset one must compliment America’s conduct in crises and the way they lay down systems for decision making in emergencies and in disaster circumstances. Laying down clear-cut systems and levels of decision making devoid of personal angles is their hallmark. On 11 Sep in New York, within 45 minutes of the first hijacked plane hitting World Trade Centre all airports were alerted to be shut, flights were diverted, some 80 fire engines and 500 rescue workers with ambulances were at the site. The Mayor of New York Giuliani took charge. The Chief of Staff alerted the President and as soon as it was possible the National Security Council met. Within days the strategy was formulated, the Armed Forces were mobilized, action to bring America back to normal instituted and battle plans commenced. The media was given full coverage and allowed plenty of freedom in reporting. USA’s leaders seldom waffled and carefully prepared almost every word they spoke and have still maintained secrecy of their plans. President Bush said he will hunt down the culprits and their organisations and will wage war ECONOMICALLY, DIPLOMATICALLY and MILITARILY and that has begun. Economic War The
trail of how money flowed into USA is becoming clearer by the day to the
Intelligence agencies and the assets of 27 Individuals/Agencies’ in
America have been frozen. Since many transactions in Asia take place via
the “Hawala Route”, some Indian, Pakistanis and Middle Eastern names
can be expected to show up. Already one Indian, Abdul Caber Jyabsu
involved in money laundering millions has been arrested in Thailand. Many
more will squeal and US$ 25 million placed on the head of Osama bin Laden,
which is a lot of money to tempt his enemies and even friends to give him
up. Bush
had promised an economic war against terrorism and this shutting off of
funds and investigation of accounts will be harmonised with other
nations’ help. The second step already taken in USA was to freeze
accounts of those who have been taken-in as suspects for aiding in the WTC
attacks. With computerisation of banks in USA and a law to make Banks
cooperate, the picture of the money route that makes the terrorists merry
go round will unfold. Even in India we were able to track into which
accounts the millions of Bofors money went, but Banks refused to disclose
the names of account holders and the money fled out of the country, and an
equal amount has been squandered on investigations. This shows it is
possible to nab suspects from the banks’ route. Reports now coming in,
point fingers at Imad Mughneyeh of the Hizbullah, but then IDC did say
this was a big cooperative effort of many terrorist agencies and we are
not surprised. Diplomatic
Offensive On
the diplomatic front, Afghanistan is being squeezed against its neighbour
and benefactor Pakistan, as this will cripple Afghanistan’s already
battered economy and stability. Even if many Muslims the world over have a
secret admiration for Osama’s achievements, they will be forced to lie
low. Pakistan has similarly been squeezed to cooperate and India’s
National Security Adviser Brajesh Mishra is calling on Dr Condolezza Rice
in Washington to discuss help from India. Lo and behold sanctions have
been lifted against India and Pakistan equally thanks to this new war. The
National Security Council seems to be hijacked by the CCS and India’s
offer and USA’s response are still cloaked and will emerge when Brajesh
Mishra returns. USA’s diplomatic push to get support of as many nations
as possible and of the UN with the carrot and stick policy is in high
gear. Intelligence cooperation is being sought and Secretary of State
Colin Powell says with confidence that USA will present evidence of the
Bin Laden’s involvement at the NATO meeting on 27 Sep. Military
Offensive Finally
the huge military machine of USA is now ranged in the Middle East and the
Indian Ocean as a force in being and need not attack, but will put
pressure on nations all round to remain alert. Australia has cancelled its
Fleet Review but IN Ships Mumbai and Jyoti (Fleet tanker) will continue on
their cruise to Sydney and Freemantle. Britain has sent its carrier and
nuclear submarines to yhe Gulf. The information war has begun by saying
British troops were in Afganistan already. Putin has also come on board in
support. So
IDC will lean on Ambassador Blackwill’s statements on military
predictions. He is knowledgeable and is aided by his full time Security
Adviser Ashley Tellis from Rand, who has come to his home of old, at an
interesting time in history. Our
Views The first step already taken in USA was to step up intelligence and rounding up of suspects and illegal immigrants who can indicate military targets in Afghanistan. This is in sharp contrast to the late 80’s. One recalls the Indian Navy’s Intelligence Directorate asking the US Embassy in Delhi and Admiral Studeman, US Navy’s DNI in Washington, to track down four Indian sailors who had deserted a naval ship on a visit to New York. The Navy had successfully secured their whereabouts and addresses in USA and knew they did not possess passports and provided all details to get them apprehended but got a terse reply –– “We do not hound people in USA. However if they commit a criminal act, they will be caught and if they are guilty then we can talk of their deportation. Till then we are sorry to be of no assurance”. This
policy has let USA down in this act of hijacking. It is a very free
country but then that is also the beauty of USA. This attitude will now
change. A renewed Act will ensure that illegal immigrants are now rounded
up and with a new law the noose on many aliens including Indians will
tighten. American citizens who were thus far, non-interfering will be more
vigilant and report untoward activity and new faces in the neighbourhood.
Just watch America get this into gear. Calculated
Approach –– Militarily USA’s
military might that runs on budgets of US$ 329 billion (almost equal to
India’s GNP) is poised all over the Middle East and in the Indian Ocean,
ready to strike. Special forces of Britian and America, who are
professionals are pouring over maps and data provided by UAVs and
satellites for tactical appreciation for hit and run missions, not a
normal war at all. The major forces and aircraft will give cover and V-22s
vertical take off planes may even be used at some point. Afghanistan’s
military targets are being pin pointed and the Taliban made to take
shelter and scatter and get hysterical even before a shot is fired. Time
is on USA’s side and it can squeeze the Taliban by providing military
equipment, intelligence and guidance to the Northern Alliance to further
squeeze the Taliban mullahs and fighters. The process has begun. Four
military advisers are in Pakistan to discuss the facilities. The National
Security Council team of USA with Dick Chenney, Don Rumsfeld, Colin Powell
and Condelezza Rice are a battle tested team and all have experience in
Defence. (unlike our Mulayams and Georges and defacto CDS’s from the IAS.) Human
Approach –– Concern For Lives Americans
also treasure lives as opposed to us in India who have little time to go
into why we are losing so many in insurgencies. Lose lives USA will and
all militaries are paid to, but then not so many as we do in India with no
sensitivity from the leaders. We are beginning to have cases of soldiers
going berserk and killing their own and recent incidents have been
reported but many incidents are hushed up. USA will plan overt and covert
operations with mathematical appreciation of the risks to lives and use
technology to the hilt to minimize loss of lives. Therefore
IDC predicts there is no hurry. The military operations by the special
forces should take shape in the next few weeks and the British Forces may
be conjoined and a UN type of resolution attempted, to make the actions
get a legal face. Local
Support The
attacks by the Northern Alliance will be stepped up and USA is ready to
provide all its old equipment to Gen Dostum and other Afghan leaders,
which has been a US policy. Reports are coming in to say Russia is selling
arms to the Northern Alliance and this is a great support policy. India
has always supported the Islamic Northern Alliance. It supported Late
Najibullah, Gulbudin Hekmatyar and Masood who were opposed to the Taliban
and gave them succour and now India’s policy to assist is on test. If
USA gets an airfield in the Northern part of Afghanistan they will take it
and make it secure, as the Taliban has no air assets of consequence.
Control of the air space as in the Gulf war will be the first prerogative.
Civilian targets will be avoided and real time imagery is being mapped by
UAVs and experimented. This will be used to advantage especially by night
to get at the Taliban’s military assets. Testing
New Weapons USA
will test to the hilt all its new weaponry by way of parachute bombs, new
bombs, night vision equipment and lethal devices and aerial advances it
has made. But as Ambassador Blackwill says there is no hurry. This new war
has economic and diplomatic weapons too which will be played out first and
USA hopes to get Osama bin Laden and others without firing too many shots.
Let
us hope for the free world they succeed. India too must put on its
thinking cap to see how it can benefit and learn from what happened on 11
Sep and be alert to what may happen in the future on our soil ––
thanks to OP. INFINITE JUSTICE or OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM or whatever USA wishes to call this new war. Suffix As
opposed to this India does not have the experience or the will to lay down
any systems –– or the leadership skills to permit devolution of
powers, whether it be for emergencies like hijacking Indian Airline’s
plane or a war situation like Kargil, which needed rules of engagement, or
disasters like the Gujarat earthquake, when the Republic Day parade in
Delhi went on and the Indian Air Force from Bhuj was radioing the size of
the calamity. The ‘Chalta Hai’ spirit, to think we are intelligent,
breeds an attitude of ‘we will act when it happens”. This is the way
we wish to go and our bureaucrats love it and military men are subservient
to it. In such cases no one can be blamed for things going wrong ––
and many a time pockets get filled along the way. It was especially
evident in the hijacking of IC 814 to Kandahar. It
is now revealed that it was India that hurried the Army Chief Malik into
Kargil, for reasons of its own, many say, because the elections were
looming. Also
in India the IAF have not said anything about their proposed Review on 17
October at Chandigargh, but important Air Chiefs are unlikely to attend. India’s
Commander-in-Chief (the President) and PM are conspicuous by their silence
and the media say Jaswant Singh has had enough of Defence. The Asian Age
speculates that KC Pant will take over. He is a survivor and has been in
Defence before, but IDC cannot recall what mark he left earlier, as Seshan
Sahib was his Defence Secretary, whose personality and closeness to Rajiv
stole most shows. Jaswant
Singh must be the busiest Minister with two key portfolios that matter
most at this juncture. War
could be a possibility for India too and we must be ready. IDC gives great
emphasis to Musharraf’s statement that the PAF is ready and he meant
ready for nuclear strikes and hence his confident words to India ‘LAY
OFF’. |