The Earl’s Court Conference Centre in
London was the
venue of an important naval conference on Future Plans of the Navies
of the World. Under the auspices of the International Quality and
Productivity Centre (IQPC) the conference brought together some 120
professionals and thinkers for discussions and networking sessions.
The Conference provided an opportunity for armed forces around the
globe to assess future trends, intellectuals injected trends in the
world of security and representatives of the military industrial
complex got a chance to plug for business. A win-win situation all
round!
All Western and NATO military powers were involved one way or
another in active and potential military and missile operations in
Iraq,
Afghanistan and the Middle East area around Pakistan and the Arabian
Sea. NATO ships of Task Force (TF-150) were fully armed and
patrolling the areas with the Pakistan Navy in command for the
present.
India
was not asked to join. Naval officers from
Muscat
and some Middle East experts were also present and they followed the
actions of TF-150 and were aware that all ships were ready for
littoral war, with full war ammunition outfits and missiles on
board. The common man in the West had lost interest in the war in
Iraq and Afghanistan but the senior brass was involved in daily
operations and much money was being spent and lives were being lost.
The Conference was therefore very illuminating and we learnt why
Navies pay so much to attend the Conference, which is worth every
penny spent by lessons to be gleaned from the papers which were
presented and interaction with serving brass which included five
Admirals.
The First Sea Lord Admiral Sir Band was due to attend and
give the keynote address but he did not, as he was due to go to
India and the plan for the India visit was made after he had
accepted to speak and so he must have been occupied and busy. In his
place the Second Sea Lord, a very personable officer, addressed the
Conference and
India and the
Indian Navy figured high in the sidelines too. Discussions under the
guidance of Chairman Geoffrey Till, Professor of the
UK’s
Staff College, were of a high caliber. A world figure Geoff Till
like India’s Raja Menon is the author of the most famous book ‘Sea
Power’, a subject assuming great importance all over again.
Discussions with Captain Peter Hore author of ‘Sea Power and the
History of the Royal Navy’ and four other books also contributed to
this report as both these gentlemen had visited India for
conferences recently.
We must mention that the intellectuals and Navy pundits were
rightly comparing
China
and India to what Europe was like in the 1500s, which they saw as
rising powers and the Chinese and Indian Navy expansions and 9 and
10% GNP growth figures were indicators. This subject of growth
potential and India’s recent engagement prior to marriage with USA,
as one put it, in connection with the Defence Framework and Nuclear
Deal will be reported by us separately, as it can be eye opening to
dwell upon and discuss the issue with Intellectuals and Intelligence
experts in India, as Pakistan was going to receive a large chunk of
military aid from USA.
Speakers from all over the world and naval leaders including
the Deputy Commander of NATO spoke of China and India in their
appreciations and the subject of ships being ready for littoral
warfare and interoperability came in for mention by every Navy. NATO
was looking for ideas for bringing peace in
Afghanistan
and admitted they were being lulled into complacency as
Kabul was somewhat under control but NATO had no control on
other areas and were nervous, as the political challenges of NATO’s
36 members were overriding.
However all the discussions brought home that in the 1500s
Europe was
in a mess with warring and religious differences as the
Ottoman Empire receded and that’s what preceded a rise of new power. In
Europe’s
case it was the fall of the Spanish Armada and the rise of the
English led by alliances of marriage and command of the seas.
France
made compromises. The route to India in 1498 and Columbus’s
discovery of America changed the fortunes of nations. Sudden
prosperity for the rich came about and this was evident in China and
India. Spain the largest power was just throwing the Muslim rulers
and the Moors out, France was ruled by the Hapsburg and the English
were consolidating with the Tudors and Stuarts coming to end the War
of Roses. But corruption was rife, there were multiple Popes
fighting and each country had a different view of Christianity and
lawlessness prevailed.
Then came the route to India and America which made Europe
rich and the British Privateer Navy crushed the Spanish Armada and
the great Elizabethan period began and by the late 1600s the English
began to rule the world. But it was the rule of Queen Elizabeth that
was the cause and nautical leaders like Sir Francis Drake and Walter
Raleigh contributed. The French and English fought but also came to
agreements on colonies and the Western world rose economically and
strategically, till
America overtook
them in the 1900s.
Now they say it is the turn of the East led by
China but along the
way chaos would rule and Shaespeare’s plays of the time were being
reenacted in India and with repression in China. We are convinced
that if history is to teach lessons then this part of geo-strategy
seems to be on the right lines. We feel that India had still not
appreciated its potential in a globalised world. Admittedly some 7%
of Indian over 80 million are as well off as the Europens and
Americans but the other 940 million have some 100 years to go and
unless leadership attends to basics in India, its progress will be
skewed but looks certain. China was well ahead.
This year, ,he Conference which was an annual event, was
preceded on 22nd May by a workshop on India’s new Defence
Procurement Rules 2005, which turned out to be a professional’s
delight for those doing defence business. The Indian Navy’s $4.5b
Scorpene deal with France and Spain surfaced as all companies
involved were at the Conference and well aware of the facts. In fact
the officials told us categorically that attempting to build the
first two boats in
India
would be a challenge and the schedule may not be maintained and the
offer to build two boats in France/Spain was the way to go and we
feel the money part made India change its mind on that offer. The
matter is sub judice as CBI and the Vigailance Commission are
on to it and a Lt Cdr Shankaran (Retd) is being sought out.
In fact the news in
London was that the
Head of RAW, Tharakan and other Intelligence agency big wigs had
visited London but no one was seriously looking for clues. The fuss
that OUTLOOK Magazine had created was a battle between two powerful
NRI Defence Agents –– of the BJP which was in power when the deal
was mooted and the Congress now in power who signed the deal. No one
is serious in looking for Shankaran who may provide clues, as unlike
the Bofors the big chunk of money as commission was still to be paid
and promises made could be denied. (It is accepted that in all
defence deals commissions were the norm the world over and India
accepts 3.5% in Government transactions in all contracts ––
surprisingly figures of 7% being the norm were being quoted by reps
at the Conference. This was the figure for the HDW submarine deal.
A Review of the fast growing Chinese Navy and an expose of
the latest in Submarine Warfare by Capt Jim Patton a former US
Nuclear Submarine Captain of the Hunt For Red October gave a back
drop to the Conference.
The Second Sea Lord VAdm Adrian J John spoke about manpower
being an important challenge and to maintain the full range of
operations of a Navy including nuclear deterrent at sea and the
costs that the British Government was discussing. . He was clear
that if a Navy prepared for high intensity ops then it could meet
low intensity tasks. He also said the RN was reducing junior ranks
as the Navies were more technical and training was to be outsourcing
to Flagship Training, an outfit manned by retired Naval Staff.
Part II
The Conference provided complete details of warships being
constructed or on the drawing boards of all major navies of the
world. Since India did not announce these details and equipment fits
kept changing till the last minute for many reasons and ships took
up to 10 years to be delivered, our representative could only
present the unclassified programmes for Scorpenes, Krivacks, Type
17, Type 15A, Gorshkov, ADS, LST(L), AOPVs, and aviation expansion
plans of the Indian Navy at the conference. The Indian Navy had
ambitious plans which will need a lot of leadership skill to
surmount in the face of delayed construction, late selection and
freezing of equipment and shortage of good and trained manpower. As
Admiral Cunningham used to stress ships can be built in three years
but it takes centuries to build a Navy. The ATV programme generated
great interest.
VAdm Delagado spoke of the Spanish Armada and National
Defence, the need for expeditionary capability of a Navy to curtail
illegal activities at sea including international terrorism, low
intensity ops to face non conventional warefare. Finally he spoke of
power projection and protection of a force at sea so AA and missile
defence were the challenges of the Spanish Navy. The cold war
scenario of a submarine threat was less but the Spanish Navy had to
be ready for it. Hence sea basing was important and coordination
with the Spanish Maritime Agency is the task ahead and the Spanish
Navy was the fastest growing in numbers in
Europe as its economy was doing well. The Admiral informed us that
Spain had designed a Submarine better than the Scorpene
which they built for
Chile and now for
India in sections, but had not opted for it themselves as it was too
expensive.
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