New
Delhi, 17 November 2002
Foggy
Bottom in Washington used to be a marsh-laden dump where
now the spanking Tube station carries that name, as a reminder
of the inhospitable marshy terrain of yore. Just a
kilometer away besides the impressive George Washington
University premises, stand the massive straight lined buildings
of the State Department some five times the size of
India's impressive South Block, which house approx. 5000 personnel.
Close by is a beautiful view of the Arlington Cemetery, a
resting ground for the graves and names of the many Americans that
gave up their lives in service of their country, when diplomacy at
Foggy Bottom failed.
Once
again with the President of USA getting ready to hit Iraq,
Foggy Bottom under Colin Powell is working over time and nearby
Pentagon under Donald Rumsfeld is full of activity and troops are
being readied and mobilised.
On
11th November, the entire American nation saluted the dead and
senior retired servicemen and President Bush led the Memorial
Service at Arlington with his hand crossed across his heart. One
could see Tri Service spirit, which the Indian Armed Forces have yet
to achieve. Bush dressed in a blue suit refused to accept the
umbrella that was offered to him by the Chairman Joint Chiefs to
Staff standing tall, next to him, and they both let the rain fall on
them as they solemnly stood on that National Veterans Day. Young men
in the Guards and Bands saluted. The Gods appeared to be
joining Americans in their grief was a thought that crossed the
mind.
We
in India have no Veterans Day. There is a Flag Day a poor substitute
for Armed Forces Day when one sees a few ladies button-holing the
President/PM with a miniature paper tricolour and collecting some
money as charity for the welfare of Servicemen. This year we
did not even remember Kargil Day and with 31 years of the 1971 war
round the bend let us see what is in store besides Navy Day on 4
December. Mohan Guruswamy has again said we seldom dedicate
thoughts to the brave.
IDC
suggest there should be one less religious celebration/holiday
and some Glory be given to our dead Warriors and retired Veterans.
We may call it Rama or Krishna Day to appease those in ascendency
and hope our secular minded Muslim and Christian brethern will not
mind.
The
lights in the corridors of Foggy Bottom are on late into the night
because Pakistan is now accepted as a dangerous terrorist state in
most circles in USA. President Musharraf is unable to rein in or
does not want to rein in the ISI which has close Taliban and Al Queda
links. He knows USA needs Pakistan geographically and would not
like to see it as a failed state, which appears to be India's
aim 末 to leave it behind militarily, economically and broken
up, so that the Kashmir problem solves itself.
China
will ensure that Pakistan is not left in the lurch. Pakistan
has even recently given Nuclear know how to North Korea and has a
Nuclear Force more ready than India, so USA's fears of war between
India and Pakistan are valid. If Bush attacks Iraq in early
2003 which seems inevitable, then there is worry at Foggy Bottom
that India may well hit Pakistan as warnings seem to be in the air.
Just then came Ram Jethmalani to Foggy Bottom this week as Head of
the Kashmir Committee and offered a solution for Kashmir 末 that
both nations have to ease their stances and India has accepted what
IDC feels is an offer to convert the LOC in to an IBL and have some
soft borders. As Stephen Cohen agrees, the India鳳akistan rivalry
hurts both states, and the prognosis is that unless there is
sustained and effective intervention by outside powers including
USA, crises like 2002 will recur with unpredictable
consequences.
The
world's 5.5 billion cannot find one Osama bin Laden in Pakistan and
he is like our own Veerrappan in the jungles. This is what confounds
Foggy Bottom. Verrapan sends us videotapes so we know he is
alive but since Osama sends voice tapes millions of dollars are
being spent to fingerprint his voice via technology. Israel is
another nuclear capable nation, which supposedly tested once in
South Africa under Waldo Stumpf and is getting ready for the fun in
Iraq.
Now
comes the media which is very free in USA thanks to the first
amendment which if available in India would have bailed out Tarun
Tejpal of Tehelka. In USA, remote cameras are very legal and are
extensively used to trap shoplifters, wrong doers and even erring
husbands and wives. Tarun did not realise India is not USA and no
politician has ever been nailed, so hidden cameras are taboo. In the
New York Times Kristof recommended Bush must hit Pakistan before
Iraq and his article in NYT makes interesting reading.
"After
all, if it's appropriate to carry out pre-emptive strikes on
countries that sponsor terrorism and secretly develop nuclear
weapons, then we could launch an invasion today 末 of Pakistan.
"
The
Osirak Option
By
Nicholas D. Kristof
The
New York Times, November 15, 2002
With
U.N. inspectors headed for Baghdad and the clock running out, those
of us who are skeptical about the need to invade Iraq need to
confront one of the most cogent arguments against us.
It
is a bombed-out building near Baghdad: the Osirak nuclear reactor,
which Israeli warplanes destroyed in June 1981. At the time, there
was broad agreement among sensible people that such a pre-emptive
strike was outrageous.
Even
the Reagan administration, normally sympathetic to Israel, chose to
condemn" the attack; France declared it
"unacceptable"; Britain denounced it as "a grave
breach of international law." A New York Times editorial began:
"Israel's sneak attack on a French-built nuclear reactor near
Baghdad was an act of inexcusable and short-sighted
aggression."
In
retrospect, the condemnations were completely wrong. (Looking back
at yellowed newspaper databases, I see that one of the few people
who got it right at the time was my colleague William Safire.)
Thank
God that Menachem Begin overrode his own intelligence agency, which
worried that the attack would affect the peace process with Egypt,
and ordered the reactor destroyed. Otherwise Iraq would have gained
nuclear weapons in the 1980's, it might now have a province called
Kuwait and a chunk of Iran, and the region might have suffered
nuclear devastation.
So
pre-emption sometimes works, and even doves tend to favor
cross-border intervention to prevent genocide in the Rwandas of the
world.
All
this suggests that an invasion of Iraq may be acceptable in
principle. But what does that tell us about whether we should invade
Iraq now?
Wars
should be principled, but that doesn't mean blindly following every
principle into battle. Otherwise you end up with conflicts like my
favorite, which occurred in 1739 after a British sailor named Robert
Jenkins turned up in London waving one of his ears in his hand and
declaring that it had been severed by the Spanish. As a result,
England launched the War of Jenkins' Ear.
The
lesson of Osirak is very limited 末 that in extreme cases
it is justifiable for a country to make a pre-emptive pinpoint
strike to prevent an unpredictable enemy from gaining weapons of
mass destruction that would be used against it. That's a reasonable
approach toward Iraq if Saddam Hussein refuses to cooperate and if
we have intelligence about what sites are worth striking.
Indeed,
it makes sense to target Saddam's own bed 末 if we can
learn where he's spending the night. Ari Fleischer quite properly
raised the possibility last month of assassinating Saddam; it's
messy, but much less so than an invasion would be.
Contrary
to popular belief, American law does not ban assassination, as
Kenneth Pollack notes in his superb new book on Iraq, "The
Threatening Storm." Rather the ban on assassination exists only
in Executive Order 12333, issued by President Ronald Reagan and
renewed by presidents since, and thus can easily be nullified.
In
any case, a succession of U.S. presidents appear to have attempted
to kill foreign leaders (Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya in 1986,
Mohammed Farah Aidid of Somalia in 1993, Saddam himself in 1991),
partly on the ground that they were command-and- control elements.
Likewise, at least in wartime, international law permits the
targeting of enemy rulers even if they are civilians. So the real
problem is finding Saddam to kill him. With weapons inspectors
heading for Iraq, the next key date may be Dec. 8, when Baghdad is
due to hand over a declaration of all its nuclear, biological and
chemical activities. The U.N. resolution makes any lapse in this
declaration a "material breach," giving the White House
its license to go to war.
Hawks
will argue for "zero tolerance," as President Bush put it
Wednesday. But one can accept that pre-emption is sometimes
necessary yet prefer to rely not on an invasion of Iraq but instead
on a less risky combination of containment, pinpoint bombing and
assassination.
After
all, if it's appropriate to carry out pre-emptive strikes on
countries that sponsor terrorism and secretly develop nuclear
weapons, then we could launch an invasion today of Pakistan.
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