On 4th
March at Hyderabad House, Condelezza Rice exclaimed, “We have
a deal”, and President Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh,
altered the balance of power and the nuclear equations in the
world, by arbitrarily opening doors for India to enter the
exclusive nuclear club of five. That act when finally
consummated will spell the death knell of the already ailing
Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT). India will join the
five policemen –– guardians of non proliferation. NPT’s
symptoms of sickness were evident at the conference held by
180 nations in
New York
in 2005, and more recently Iran’s blatant defiance of the
treaty.
A nuclear
world order with India as an integral member is in the offing,
which is only likely to be challenged by China and some
Scandinavian countries, but Indian leaders are dealing their
cards with finesse. India can thank its founding fathers to
have kept out of the NPT and CTBT and secretly continued the
pursuit of nuclear technology like a good national insurance
plan, which has now paid dividends.
Many in
India, especially some of India’s political parties, do not
appear to have grasped the significance of the bold step of
India’s Prime Minister and his team of advisers, to sign the
nuclear deal with Bush’s team, and the benefits that can
accrue to India when the deal finally goes through the US
Congress and the 44 strong Nuclear Suppliers group.
The BJP at
present groping for a credible strategy, started the path but
are smarting that no credit is being given to them. The
opposing factions which have lined up with surprising
anti-national utterances have unwittingly joined Pakistan,
Iran and others, because as card holders they still have to
come to terms that the cold war era is over and dead.
Mentalities and attitudes take time to change but balance of
power equations change faster, and so do geopolitics and
economic equations.
It is this
new climate that has been grasped by President Bush to forge
an economic and strategic partnership with India for the
mutual benefits that will accrue to both countries. It is a
repeat of the secret mission undertaken by Henry Kissinger in
1971 facilitated by Pakistan, when Kissinger opened USA’s
doors for China. From being a communist pariah China became a
business friend of USA for trade and China almost gave
military support to Pakistan in India’s 1971 war on Nixon’s
behest, but Mrs Indira Gandhi wisely signed a Strategic Pact
with Russia, which proved to be the decisive deterrent.
China
never looked back with FDI and technology from
USA.
Today it is
deterrence that Indian leaders need to pursue militarily and
in diplomacy.
The wise
words of the present Defence Minister of Singapore Rear
Admiral Teo Chee Hean rings a bell. Since 1990, every time an
Indian leader called on him in Singapore, he tried to explain
that a benign strategic relationship between nations is
essential for business. India has only recently adopted this
policy whole heartedly and signed defence and strategic
partnerships with umpteen nations and one with Australia
recently, and President Kalam is visiting Mynmar where he is
following up on India’s strategic and energy interests in
competition with
China.
In Mauritius we have economic interests as 80% of FDI comes
via that country and we have Intelligence tie ups. The
President is going there too and as a shrewd space and nuclear
technologist he knows what deterrence is all about for an
accepted nuclear power.
Now that
India has overt acceptance of its nuclear arsenal, its Leaders
need to understand the tenets of deterrence. Openness is
necessary to ensure the safety of the nuclear arsenal, which
may never be used except for deterrence and publicity of its
capabilities and plans, to deter any aggressor. The military
are the users of the arsenal but they are still not in the
loop, and with 35% nuclear facilities now labeled military,
the Armed Forces will need to be involved in the policy and
practice of nuclear deterrence.
India’s most
ambitious and expensive DRDO project for building a nuclear
submarine technology demonstrator, after the Light Combat
Aircraft LCA, which is still struggling to become combat
worthy, has seen large covert funding from the PMO and needs
to be brought out in the open in a calibrated manner as it too
is struggling. The project is euphemistically called the
Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV). The existence of the nuclear
submarine building project has long been denied by successive
Indian defence ministers and navy chiefs. Admiral Vishnu
Bhagwat lost his job as Chief of Naval Staff for asking for an
audit of the ATV project.
However now
it is in the public domain and soon its large funding will
shift to the Navy especially if more are ordered. Over 12
acknowledged vendors including Larsen and Tubro Ltd and
Mazagon Dock Ltd are involved in this multi-crore project and
they speak about it and its future for business at exhibitions
looking for sub contracting, but in official terms of the
Government it is still a mirage and does not exist. This
situation needs to be corrected to remove doubts in the minds
of many including US Congress which will need to trust India
more and more.
As luck would
have it the ATV project was at last officially confirmed first
by the Defence Minster Pranab Mukherjee to the media in
Moscow
during his visit to Russia in December, and more recently
during the President’s impressive Review of the Combined
Fleets in Vishakaptanam on 12th February.
President Dr
Avul Pakir Jainulabdeen Abdul Kalam whilst at Vishakapatnam,
visited the sprawling Ship Building Center (SBC) adjacent to
the Naval Dockyard and Hindustan Shipyard in the heart of the
town, in the gaze of the media men who were rightly denied
access. Though the President did not specifically mention the
term ATV, he described it as –– a ‘strategic submarine with
long endurance and high manoeuvre capability that is taking
shape and being developed with partnership’. In fact Dr Kalam
as DRDO head steered the project and should be proud of it,
even though it has seen uphill days but
India
will have to have a nuclear submarine fleet soon, since China
has over two dozen nuclear boats and
USA
has only nuclear submarines in its fleet. They are all for
deterrence.
The need
exists for greater openness in our nuclear ambitions. Finally
it must be remembered that in 10 month long OP Parakarma,
Pakistan used its nuclear card as a deterrent by issuing a
warning and India was deterred though the Government
officially never admitted it and called it coercive diplomacy.
Only Gen Padmanabhan has explained it all in his writings!
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