New Delhi, 12
November 2003
When
Stephen Cohen talks everyone listens because he is forthright and he
hails from the Brookings Institute of Washington DC, which is a few
hundred yards away from the Indian Embassy at Du Pont circle. He has
studied the sub continent and has met every shade of knowledgeable
civilian and man in uniform both in India and Pakistan during his
many tours ––and in Washington where people from India and
Pakistan express them selves a little more freely. Discussions on
India and Pakistan are on the increase and USA had funded some 200
visitors from India alone.
Washington
has many think tanks and Brookings is well supported and respected.
Top Indian and Pakistan journalists have done attachments there.
Cohen rightly claims he knows and understands India and Pakistan, as
he looks at us without emotion from the outside and has military
expertise in equipment and organisation, which helps him along the
way. He can rattle off Corps and battalions on both sides, better
than many of us. Many of his predictions have come true and he is
sought after by all institutions.
We
in India have little knowledge about the exact state of the Pakistan
Army or Military and ISI because our MEA has ensured there are no
contacts for the serving officers. Many await the genuine opening of
ties. This bureaucratic methodology is understandable because they
see themselves as the only arbiters of judgement and fear leaks of
information unaware that today it is a very open world. The more
open we are the more self-confidence the Armed Forces will have. We
therefore assume that the Indian military establishment is therefore
predominantly dependant on open sources which are many ––
despatches of the Indian Defence Attaches, DIA, MI, IB and RAW and
now NTFO ( National Technical Facilities Organisation ) for radio,
email and Internet intercepts from Islamabad –– for details
about the Pakistan Military.
When
Cohen wrote his book on the Pakistan Army some years ago it was read
as a great education by all professionals but that was before
Pakistan and India went legally nuclear. So it is out of date and he
himself admits the situation between the two nuclear countries is
very risky. His next book after “ Emerging India”, in which he
predicted India will emerge) and his new one
on Pakistan are due to be out soon. Hence it was also a sales
tour for his updates and this time when Stephen Cohen was in Delhi
he was a most sought after person and the Reliance Observer Group
think tank headed by Shri R K Misra, Gen V P Malik and Vice Admiral
KK Nayyar amongst others were his hosts. He even visited Gujrat.
At
his lecture on Pakistan Army at the USI even busy bureaucrats from
the Secretariat turned up for a full house, which in Delhi is a
rarity. We make an attempt to analyse his views, and though Mr Cohen
spoke very generally about the Pakistan Army at USI and at other
fora (he stated he has to) we can only make some points of analysis
that are relevant and need to be stressed for India–Pakistan
watchers, as food for thought. Gen V P Malik was in the Chair at the
USI talk and he also shared his views after his experience as the
architect of the Kargil victory, and now a Prime Adviser who
accompanies the NSA Brajesh Mishra to some conferences and travels
widely.
The
Reliance Observer Group has hired many analysts and some from IDSA
and intends to become India’s RAND Corporation with full support
form the Ambani brothers, especially Anil as they can get strategic
intelligence and analysis for their huge empire now involved in Oil,
Plastics, Bio-Technology and Telephony. Defence could follow via
Larsen and Tubro and maybe one day Reliance will invest in Pakistan
as their 12m ton refinery at Jamnagar is within 12 minutes flying
time from Pakistan. All this is good for India, and IDC lauds the
efforts.
There
is now privatisation in thinking too, and there is money in it, and
Jaswant Singh a former Major has stated there is nothing wrong in
five star culture and accepts that India’s pseudo socialism has to
fall by the wayside, and Cohen in his book ‘Emerging India’, had
alluded to this. As socialism reduces India will rise further. It is
well said, in Communism all become equal and well provided and only
the top leaders become rich. In Capitalism wealth is generated and
many become rich and carry others. In socialism the poor remain poor
while the political leaders, the bureaucrats and their cronies get
the cream.
Now
to Cohen’s points:
-
The
Pakistan Army according to Cohen is a professional Army and
though the officers enjoy great privileges and the Army is in
power they should not be underestimated. They are not as well
equipped as the Indian Army but they are not poorly equipped
either and post 9/11 their inventory has gone up. Hence the
Indian Army can never treat the Pakistani army lightly. The
Indian army has only a slight edge despite a more than triple
defence budget. India’s 21 Divisions are far spread.
-
The
Pakistan Army does a have Jehadi streak in its build up and that
is a great motivating factor. The Army looks upon itself as the
only force that can govern Pakistan satisfactorily and the
feudal system will not allow democracy to take roots for quite
some time. India will have to live with this.
-
Cohen
also, like we had pointed out in am earlier report, feels that
the 9 Corps Commanders are a very potent group that guides and
governs Pakistan. We have always stated that we need to make
contact with them somehow. But anyone who talks like this, has
the wrath of the Indian Intelligence and Foreign Service on
their hands. Our Ambassadors in Pakistan also fight shy of
contact as they feel it is risky and they follow the practice
here in India where senior service officers do not attend
National Day celebrations of Foreign Ambassadors despite
invitations or meet them and MEA strictly controls their
attendance at such functions in New Delhi. More trust has to be
created between uniforms at all levels with out letting our
guard down. In Malaysia, the Indian Navy did not invite the two
Pakistani Captains of Nasr and Babur and their visiting senior
officer at LIMA 03 on board the INS Delhi reception which was a
sought after event and no doubt further exacerbated the feelings
of illwill.
-
On
Musharraf Cohen appeared convinced that his position was tenuous
and if there was change another General would arrive on the
scene and hinted at Gen Aziz. He was guarded to make categoric
statements and said so.
-
The
Indian establishment and Army easily forgets the past (We seem
to be forgetting Kargil) and we are not as revengeful, but the
Pakistani psyche and Army is revengeful and they have not
forgotten the 1971 war. This factor and the fact that both
Indians and Pakistanis are emotional people was emphasised but
Cohen wanted to convey that Pakistanis are more emotional.
-
Pakistanis
rely more on personal military linkages than the systemic
linkages, and this fact must be borne in mind. Several years of
friendship with American defence personnel and Chinese gives
them an edge in dealing with the two countries. This irks
Indians and evidently Cohen has many linkages in the Pakistani
Army, which facilitates his efforts.
-
There
is apprehension in Pakistan that the Americans are leaning more
and more on India and this suspicion could take its toll in the
future on the peace process. Pakistani feels it cannot trust
America as much. Cohen did not think there will be any major
break through in the resolution of Kashmir, but articulated his
Cohen plan and once again emphasised that India would need a
facilitator and hinted as USA being that agency. This is the way
out. However USA is deeply mired in Iraq and Afghanistan, and
would ride the course. It is nuclear action that worries USA.
-
Cohen
when asked a categorical question whether he thought Indian or
Pakistani nuclear military readiness was better he confessed
that he had been given no access to the Pakistani nuclear
forces, which is tightly guarded by the Military. It is doubtful
any one can answer this question as both countries have
rudimentary systems with out the expensive safe guards the West
established, but Cohen does fear that there is that
remote chance of nuclear war. There is noticeable and
welcome change in India and service officers are being
encouraged to take courses in Nuclear Ops and Management and
civilian experts have been brought in to educate the mid and
upper level only recently. IDC cannot but quote K Subrahmanayam,
“the nuclear trigger was in the hands of people not schooled
in formal nuclear doctrine.” This is changing and it is
possible that the NSA and his team are now well educated on
India’s arsenal and capabilities. This is very heartening.
Conclusion
In
this analysis one cannot but quote Condelezza Rice NSA of USA on
Promoting National Interest and exercising power without arrogance
in the India–Pakistan context. She had stated “ The triumph of
American values is most assuredly easier when the International
balance of power favours those who believe in them (India). But
sometimes that balance of power takes time to achieve and in the
meantime it is simply not possible to ignore and isolate other
powerful states (Pakistan) that do not share those values.“
Pakistan has geography to control the oil routes, and is a nuclear
power and India would like USA to isolate it and India even tried
via Op Parakaram. We believe the only way is to zoom ahead
economically which is now happening and keep dialogues open with
Pakistan and understand it better. Rand corporation had also
suggested this. Hence Stephen Cohen’s visit must have added
benefit to those interested in India’s track two approach, and
India–Pakistan amity for our future generations, despite the
Information Minister of Pakistan Sheikh Rashid Ahmed now in India,
saying. “after Vajpayee there is darkenss.”
He must have been briefed by Musharraf of Agra, as the media
is now a powerful player in International affairs.
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