President Hu Jintao’s visit is of great
importance. After signing the cooperation agreements Hu will go to
Pakistan. China has long term stakes in Gwadar port and in the
future gas pipeline and the land route to China via the Karakoram
Pass. These Chines strategic interests are linked with Pakistan's
future. China wants to do trade with India but would like to ensure
that the balance of power does not move away, with too much power in
India's hands and is obviously worried about India's new found
friendship with USA. The world realises the geographic and social
import of Pakistan's position as a Muslim nation right next to
India, and that Pakistan is a close friend of China and a nuclear
power to boot. Yet many in India ignore this fact of geography.
India has been over critical of USA and UK molly codling President
Musharraf since 9/11, when he has himself clearly stated most terror
emanates from Pakistan and wants to control it. However, the Mullahs
and their hold over people is very strong in Islamic countries and
the motivation of the misguided Muslim religion is full of fervour.
USA, UK and NATO need Pakistan direly for their operations in
Afghanistan and even Tony Blair on a recent visit had to transit
Pakistan to meet his troops. He admitted to disasters in Iraq and
was told Afghanistan is a tough call by his military Commanders. The
future is unpredictable.
Though most countries have armies but in
Pakistan the Army has the country, and this fact needs to be
factored into India–Pakistan relations. The Army matters. The
Pakistan Army leadership at Independence realised that if the POK
area and Kashmir went to India, Pakistan would have no defence in
depth and if India had Kashmir India's Army could be breathing down
Islamabad and march in any time. So, encouraged by the British,
Pakistan tried to take Kashmir but in the stalemate we have to live
with the LOC.
It is Afghanistan that gives Pakistan
defence on the other side but India has always wanted influence in
Afghanistan, which Pakistan always resists because India has made
trouble for Pakistan in the past and the present situation is
unclear. Warlords in Afghanistan can be rented. The FATA area of NW
Pakistan in any case is out of control of the Pakistan Army and
recently the tribals in collusion with Taliban killed 32 Pakistani
soldiers in one suicide attack. In the past India had good
Intelligence connections and cooperation with the Northern Army but
never in the south of Afghanistan. Today the situation seems to be
getting worse in the South as Musharraf has cut a deal with NW
Frontier leaders and Taliban in the area. India has pledged $600m to
Afghanistan as reconstruction aid. Yet Pakistan does not allow
transit of Indian goods which go via Chahbahar in Iran, the
expensive way
Mr B Raman's excellent analysis of
India's tough postion in Southern Afghanistan culled from media
reports, with military and geographic details. He claims terror is
being fermented on India's borders.
International Terrorism Monitor:
NWFP Increasingly Under Anti-India,
Anti-Us Jihadi Control
(Collated from the Pakistani Media)
By B. Raman
Clerical control of public life appears
to be on the rise in large areas of the North-West Frontier Province
(NWFP) of Pakistan. The clearest indications of this are emanating
from districts adjoining the more volatile regions of the
Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). In the South, these
include Tank, Dera Ismail Khan, Bannu and Lakki Marwat, all
bordering the South and North Waziristan Agencies. In the North, the
situation in the Bajaur Agency is igniting religious extremism in
Dir, Swat and the Malakand tribal regions and as far East as
Kohistan and Gilgit in the Northern Areas of Jammu & Kashmir. (My
comment: This is presently occupied by Pakistan)
Meanwhile, the presence of jihadi camps
in the districts of Manshera and Abbotabad, both bordering Kashmir,
completes a picture of the province that is increasingly overwhelmed
by a rising tide of political Islam on the one hand and by the
presence of active jihadi cadres on the other.
Various jihadi outfits active in the
Waziristan region have traditionally maintained formal
organisational networks in southern NWFP. As the influence of the
State declines in the Waziristan region, these militant networks
have expanded their public contact campaigns with the aim of
recruiting fighters for the insurgency in Afghanistan. Dozens of
aspiring jihadis recruited from Karak, Bannu, Lalli, Dera and Tank
are sent each month to training camps in Wana in South Waziristan.
Up North, the banned
Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) has reactivated its
cadres and taken to the streets in the Districts of Dir, Malakand
and Swat, using FM channels to whip up fundamentalist sympathy and
jihadi sentiments. The Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) has a strong presence
in the Districts of Upper and Lower Dir and runs about 30 FM radio
channels that advocate jihad in Kashmir and Afghanistan.
At least three major jihadi groups
maintain their liaison and recruitment offices in the Timergara area
of Lower Dir District. These include the JEI-backed Hizbul
Mujahideen (HM), former JI affiliate Al Badr Mujahideen, now
re-named as Al Suffa Foundation, and the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), now
known as Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JUD). Other jihadi organisations that have
representatives in the Timergara and Warai areas of Dir include the
Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM), which now calls itself Al Rahman Trust, the
Harkat-ul-Ansar (HUA), the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM) and a Kashmiri
group called the Pasban Millat.
Reliable sources in the area claim that
these organisations liaise closely with Al Qaeda and Taliban
militants based in the Bajaur Agency and have operations inside the
Eastern Afghan provinces of Kunar and Laghman. However, the
representatives of these outfits make no such claim. They are more
forthcoming on their activities in Kashmir than in Afghanistan. They
display openly on their notice boards the details of their
activities in Kashmir. They contain information such as the last
group to cross into Kashmir, the names of those recently "martyred"
etc.
During May, there were persistent
rumours that Osama bin Laden may be hiding in Dir's Kumrat area. The
veracity of these rumours could not be established. However, it was
established that Maulvi Naquibullah, who was a Minister in the
pre-9/11 Taliban Government, was staying for two years in the house
of a local leader of the Jamiat-ul-Ulema Islam Pakistan of Maulana
Fazlur Rahman at Barawal in Upper Dir District. Six months ago, he
shifted to the Bajaur Agency to assume command of the Taliban forces
in Eastern Afghanistan.
My comments: During the two years of his
stay, he used to conduct the prayers every Friday in a Barawal
mosque. Pakistani Army and Inter-Services Intelligence officers, who
attended the prayers, never arrested him.
(From the "Herald", a monthly journal of
Karachi, of June,2006. "Herald" is published by the "Dawn" group of
publications)
THERE’S NO BUSINESS LIKE THE JIHADI
BUSINESS
Billions of rupees have been spent to
extend "moral and diplomatic support' to the people of Kashmi, while
millions of dollars have also been raised through donations by
Pakistanis and Kashmiris living abroad for the same cause.
This has allowed some enterprising men
to make fortunes in the name of jihad...No wonder then over the
years, this cause has become associated with comfortable living,
luxury cars and multi-million rupee assets in Pakistan and
elsewhere.
Many have pocketed money out of the
funds lavished on them by private fund-raisers in the US, Britain
and the Middle East and reportedly by the official agencies for
pushing forward Islamabad's Kashmir agenda. In 2004, one of the
country's major intelligence agencies arrested Bilal Rahi, chief of
Al Barq Mujahideen and recovered from him Rs.45 million (about US
dollars one million) that he had siphoned off out of the funds he
was supposed to have passed on to his organisation's leadership in
Kashmir.
A Kashmiri leader based in Muzaffarabad
and associated with the Jamiatul Mujahideen was arrested for
pocketing Rs.25 million (roughly US Dollars 500,000) out of the
funds given to him.
Several Pakistan-based Kashmiri
political leaders possess plots in the Jammu Kashmir Housing Society
on Adiala Road, Rawalpindi. Political leaders associated with the
Jamaat-e-Islami, the Muslim Conference, the People's Conference and
the Freedom Party also own plots there.
Another leader associated with the
Islamic Front, who was running an auto repair workshop in Srinagar
before migrating to Pakistan-administered Kashmir, owns properties
and movable assets worth hundreds of millions of rupees.
There are people among Kashmiri
political leaders in Pakistan, who have no visible means of earning
a livelihood, yet they own personal properties and drive expensive
vehicles.
Several political figures, who
previously spearheaded the activities of the All-Party Hurriyat
Committee's component parties in Pakistan, as well as
representatives of some militant groups, have left the scene after
having raked in the money during their prolonged association with
the Kashmir movement. Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front's
representative Altaf Qadri, who represented Yasin Malik for about 10
years in the Pakistan-administered Kashmir chapter of the APHC, quit
active politics and moved to the US along with his family.
Some seven militant leaders, previously
associated with different Kashmiri groups, have given up militancy
and established businesses. In several instances, it was noted that
those, who ended their affiliations with political and militant
groups, entered the real estate business and also thrived due to the
boom in the country's stock exchanges. There has been a controversy
surrounding the distribution of Rs.560 million (US Dollars 12
million ) from the Kashmir Liberation Cell (KLC) account when Sardar
Abdul Qayuum was the Prime Minister of Pakistan-Administered
Kashmir. It is a closed chapter as nobody knows exactly how much of
that amount reached the people across the Line of Control it was
intended for.
My comment: The KLC was set up by the
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in 1989 when Mrs.Benazir Bhutto
was the Prime Minister to transmit money clandestinely to the jihadi
organisations .
(From an article carried by the "Herald"
in its issue for August, 2006)
CHANGE IN JIHADI TACTICS
Sources say that both the
Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) continue to
attempt infiltration (into India's J&K). The LET, which has its own
guides, has been more successful. According to these sources, the
militant outfits are trying to adapt to the new environment. "One
way of avoiding ambushes by the Indian troops is to send in smaller
groups through carefully selected points on the LOC so that they are
able to avoid detection," says one LET source. Unlike the earlier
groups of 20 to 25 men, the militants now move in groups of eight or
less, he adds. Secondly, the infiltrators hardly carry weapons any
more. Improvised explosive devices (IEDs) have replaced Kalshnikovs.
The new strategy is to blow up important installations instead of
engaging the Indian troops in gun battles, he says. Ground action is
initiated only when the militants are a hundred per cent sure of
success. He further reveals that the militants are now training
local Kashmiris to make their own explosive devices with raw
material easily available in India. "The jihad in Kashmir is
becoming self-sustaining," he claims.
(From the same issue of the "Herald")
JIHADI CONCENTRATIONS IN THE NWFP
More than a thousand trained militants
from Kashmir are presently in three Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) camps in
the Hazara region of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) alone.
Of these, the Hisari and Batrasi camps are located in the Manshera
District while a third camp is located in Boi in District Abbotabad.
Sources say that thousands of other militants are in camps run by
half a dozen smaller Kashmiri groups or predominantly Pakistani
outfits such as the LET, the JEM, the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM) and
Al Badr Mujahideen in the NWFP and the Pakistan-administered Kashmir
regions. Enquiries made by the "Herald" reveal that although major
jihadi organisations have various sources of funds, official funding
traditionally made up the bulk of their financial inflows. Small
organisations such as Tehrik-e-Mujahideen, Jamiat-e-Mujahideen, Al
Fatah,Al Jihad, Tehrik-e-Jihad, Islamic Front etc were receiving
between Rs. 400,000 and 700,000 a month, whereas larger
organisations such as the HM, the LET, the JEM and others received
between Rs.two and three million a month. This is in addition to
funds that were paid for logistics, communications, equipment,
weapons, explosives. food and trekking kits for the thousands of
militants, guides and porters who infiltrated into Kashmir every
year.
(From the same issue of "Herald")
MADRASAS FOR WOMEN JIHADIS
According to "Jang" of January 6, 2006,
there were 11,221 madrasas in Pakistan in 2005. The number of
madrasas before the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US was 6761 in
2000. There are 448 madrasas exclusively for women. The majority of
the madrasas are Deobandi. In Punjab, 444,156 madrasa students are
Deobandis as against 199,733 Barelvis, 34,253 Ahle Hadiths and 7,333
Shias. The largest number of madrasas (in Punjab) are in Bahawalpur
followed by Lahore, Bhawalnagar and Faislabad. The Federal
Government has withdrawn from all four provinces the funds meant for
madrasa reform because it was unspent (by the provinces). President
Musharraf is seen as a person of cultivated ambivalence in regard to
these nurseries of violence.
My comment: According to reliable police
sources in Pakistan, girls from the UK, the US and Canada have been
joining the madrasas meant for women in increasing numbers. They
join from the age of 10 upwards.
("Daily Times" of August 21, 2006)
JIHADI RADIO STATIONS
The Government seems to be having a
tough time dealing with the proliferation of illegal FM radio
channels in parts of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)
and adjoining districts in the NWFP. These channels are being used
to spread sectarian extremist views and general intolerance. They
are inciting those in their respective camps to take to violence
against those belonging to rival sects. A fall-out of one such
battle fought on the radio may have been the Nishtar Park bombing in
Karachi, which killed 47 people. They are also fostering
Talibanisation of the areas covered by them. A radio station run by
the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-E-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) has been repeatedly
warning women listeners that the marriages of those, whose husbands
do not have a beard, would be declared null and void.
(The "News" of August 20, 2006)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd),
Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently,
Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: itschen36@gmail.com)
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