New Delhi, 16
March 2003
All
the three Service Chiefs visited USA in the recent past and there
appears to be increasing personal contact and communication
between senior Pentagon officers and their Indian counterparts
–– much to the consternation of India's MEA. USA is wooing the
Indian military directly and the Security Adviser to the US
Ambassador Ashley Tellis, a former Indian researcher and Rand
specialist, has been an asset in the process, with his vast contacts
and knowledge.
The
IFS mandarins in South Block appear to be slowly losing control over
where and when service officials can or cannot go, and no Indian
bureaucrat ever likes that. In fact a bureaucrat once asked why he
should do anything for the Armed Forces as they had everything
including the best golf courses!
The
delegation of powers to the Services from the huge revenue
travel budget estimates is also a welcome change. We have just seen
some $1.5bn of India's defence budget remaining unspent when world
wide especially in Russia, Germany and Scandinavia, defence budgets
have been cut, and Russian Navy Chief Kordoreyev has said he cannot
maintain his fleet.
In
the past a Joint Secretary in MEA could just rule out a
visit or even a National Day function when a Chief or Vice
Chief indicated what function would be good to attend in the national
interest. No wonder India's relations with most countries never
encouraged understanding of the difficult India–Pakistan Kashmir
relations –– as it was the Army that suffered the most and men
in uniform could explain this best. India could never also expect to
export its defence wares and an MEA officer –– normally JS
(Exports), whose many energies were spent in arranging and visiting
exhibitions with full service support.
India’s
exports are meager and even those to Nepal and Bhutan, which
actually go as captive aid are included in the export figures. This
is going to change too as private players move in. There are
definite changes along the Potomac in Washington and Jamuna in
Delhi. The USA wants a piece of the defence cake of India's generous
capital defence budget and looks for a strategic relationship,
attempting to dislodge Russia. If India plays its cards well it can
have its service bread buttered, and even get some jam spread on it
by the Americans. Media reports that USA is offering F 16s, PC
3 Orions and Sperry and Spruance class second hand destroyers. The
Indian defence budget can afford these and FM Jaswant Singh assures
us he has the money.
The
USA succeeded in their exercise of "Continuous Engagement"
of the Indian Military. Gen Ralston a brilliant Air Force Officer
who visted India as Vice JCS and missed becoming JCS due to some
personal reasons, had framed the policy three years ago (like
America has done with many countries especially Pakistan). After
a thaw there have been some 20 delegation visits of senior officers
from the three Services and it all began with the earlier EAM
Jaswant Singh–Stobe Talbott bon homie, when Jaswant Singh began
taking senior military officers with his delegation. The visits
contributed greatly to understandings, which later led to IN ships
successfully patrolling the Malacca Straits post 9/11. The results
in the Army and Air Force are beginning to show and Pakistan has
objected to the USAF–IAF exercises due to be held later. The NAM
meet also showed that NAM is only a group of developing nations
getting together and airing their grievances. Mahatir of Malaysia as
the host wisely asked NAM to redefine its role.
Martin
Marietta the same firm that had soured India’s LCA progress has
now indicated the eagerness of United States Aerospace giant (now
called Lockheed Martin) to export the latest incarnation of their
F-16C multi-role fighters to India. The proposed sale is projected
as a medium term replacement of MiG-21s in IAF (Indian Air Force)
fleet. Lockheed Martin knows the AJT will never be operational when
the MiG 21 bisons need replacement. Lockheed Martin is putting
stress on the technological sophistication of its product, as only
three to four squadrons of which perhaps can replace a significant
portion of the MiG-21 fleet, as "replacement on one to one
basis is not necessary".
It
is not yet clear as to the exact version of F-16C offered. But it
could be F-16C Block 60 upgrade that recently won an export order to
United Arab Emirates and includes eighty machines. Significantly it
secured its order in face of tough competition by Eurofighter
Typhoon and French Rafale. F-16C Block 60 upgrade includes
all-weather precision targeting and strike capability with extended
range and enhanced air-to-air performance. Since Lockheed Martin
spoke to HAL as indicated in our Aero India report it seems it has
promised full technology transfer to India to facilitate domestic
license production, the Indians will be able to access certain key
technologies not immediately available from elsewhere, the most
important being the Northrop Grumman APG-80 ASEA (Active
Electronically Scanned Arrays) capable Agile Beam Radar. When
configured with the Russian or Israeli Python air to Air missiles
and the KH 31 Russian Air Surface missile the IAF will be equal to
the most advanced.
APG-80
is capable of interleaving air-to-air, air-to-ground and terrain
following modes so they appear simultaneous. Details are classified
but APG-80 has almost twice the detection range of the APG-68(V)7 on
board F-16C Block 50 and provides high resolution SAR (Synthetic
Aperture Radar) ground imaging. Moreover ASEA radar, have tremendous
growth potential and has the capacity to detect enemy radar
transmissions at extended ranges and jam them with
"transmission bursts". Other sensors of F-16C Block 60 are
of extremely high standard which include IR(Infra-Red) detection kit
an a formidable EW (Electronic Warfare) suite. It also has uprated
engines and a modern FCS (Flight Control System) written in C++.
As
a part of the package the IAF could well receive Raytheon developed
AIM-9X Sidewinder that has arrived with a revolutionary 'staring
focal plane array technology', that has inherently better IRCCM
(Infra-Red Counter Counter Measures) and is readily programmable for
new IRCCM techniques in future. This particular staring focal plane
array technology provides greater ability to reject flares and other
countermeasures. As stated above the nearest non-Russian competitor
of this missile is Israeli Python 5 that have an improved seeker,
motor, and better immunity to countermeasures than its predecessor
the Python 4.
From
technological standpoint the American offer is worth considering.
But at the same time it will be foolish to ignore the whimsical
attitude of United States administration that frequently put the
dependent nations in a fix especially in terms of foreign and
defence policy. Also the French are "in the fray" offering
their Mirage 2000-5Mk2 which is a formidable machine in its own
right. The Russians are proposing a "scaled-down"
Sukhoi-30 with a high commonality in terms of weapons and electronic
systems. Both the Russians and French are reputed for their
wholehearted support to India during the times of crisis, the latest
being during Pokhran 2 of 1998. It is reasonable to assume that both
political and technological considerations will play a part during
selection of the fighter type.
Even
in a unipolar world consistency in attitude counts, as the Americans
may have to learn. The Navy could look at the PC 3 Orions. We salute
the FM Jaswant Singh for his pragmatic budget when in his budget
speech he said “ Power in the 21st Century will flow
from a well oiled economy “ but we worry about the statement made
by George Fernandes at the IDSA seminar on China before an
enlightened International audience, “On certain issues I have a
personal conviction, like some members of the Long March. I am 70
plus in age and we may be too old to change radically.” or when he
said to Musharraf “India can absorb a bomb or two, but when we
respond there will be no Pakistan”. Outlook has reported that
there may be a reshuffle in Ministers including Defence and why not
let some other also enjoy the perks that go with the MOD. We hope
somebody will make the defence budget have three simple Ss---
Strategy, Structure and Simplification with transparency –– to
see money is not budgeted and then returned if the need exists.
US
Ambassador in New Delhi, Robert Blackwill: "I am confident that
historians will look back and regard the transformation of
US–India relations as one of the most important strategic
developments of the first decade of this new century.
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