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INDIA DEFENCE CONSULTANTS |
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WHAT'S HOT?
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ANALYSIS OF
RECENT HAPPENINGS |
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MEDIA
WATCH -- USA |
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New
Delhi, 4 May 2001 US
to Press Ahead with Building Missile Shield –– INDIA Supportive On
May Day, while many capitals of the world were having public
demonstrations either in support of the labour cause or anti
capitalism/free trade, President Bush in his address at the National
Defence University, committed the US to building missile defence shield,
which may require the 1972 ABM Treaty to be replaced, eliminated or
changed in a fundamental way. The Pentagon plans are to build a
multi-layered system that would have ship-based radar (like Aegis) and
interceptors (including laser), in addition to land-based and space-based
elements. The aim is to defend not only against attacks from rogue states
like North Korea, Iran or Iraq, but also accidental or unauthorized
launches possibly from China and Russia. In
exchange for making the ABM Treaty defunct Bush has offered major
unilateral cuts in nuclear arms (upto 70%) and negotiations for creating
an alternative framework for disarmament with Russia and all other major
nations of the world. The announcement was no surprise as the US media had
already started giving out various statements by Administration officials
on such a possibility from 29 Apr onwards. At
home, the Democrats have crticised it as a politically and financially
reckless step to start building an antimissile system before the
technology is perfected. Abroad, it has given rise to a plausible fear of
starting a new arms race, the harshest of them being China. The fact
remains that US has historically displayed an abiding love for newer
technologies in all walks of life, more so in defence and nation’s
security. They were the first to develop and use the atom bomb and
will go any distance to make their land and people as secure as humanly
feasible, against any outside missile attack be it conventional or
nuclear. (More detailed analysis next week) Analysis
By Our India Editor IDC has followed this big development from India too.
IDC vistors should know that Condolezza Rice was good and clever enough to
contact EAM and RM Jaswant Singh before President Bush's
announcement and Jaswant Singh has supported USA immediately on jts
new tack. Jaswant met Rice recently and Jaswant is a
balanced but over worked Minister. George Fernandes is out for the
time being and could never have taken such a pragmatic decision. George
is very anti USA and Madhu Limaye's two fantastic books ‘THE JANATA
EXPERIMENT’ can tell you all about Manohar Lohia , Vajpayeeji, George,
Subramaniam Swamy and the whole kaboodle of the Janta people, who became the
BJP or their supporters. Whilst Bush has declared he is making a Defence
shield and sheathing the sword, Jaswant Singh and MEA have said they
support the break from the past from deterrence to a shield . Very clever
words, as Bush has promised to reduce nuclear arsenals. Bush wants the
1972 ABM treaty dissolved. IDC sees this as a very clever move by India.
We hope the sanctions will get lifted in the bargain. There
must be quid pro quo. We have to be a little pragmatic and at this
stage as Russia and USA want to woo us and China is looking for
stability as its economy zooms ahead, IDC feels let us play ball to
keep our own economy going. As all now know Russia and China are to sign a
big treaty of cooperation when Jiang Zemin visits Moscow in July and the
drafts are ready as Putin discussed this when he visited China. Russia has told India in no uncertain terms that the unipolar
position of USA needs to be broken and China has also shown this by its
stance on the EP3 SPY PLANE, which has angered Bush. Vajpayee is to meet
Bush later this year.The only point IDC can add is an ARMS RACE HAS BEGUN
and we will present that soon. Bush
Completes 100 Days in White House President
Bush’s completion of 100 days in office has seen much media hype, with
photographers having a field day in the White House capturing every action
of his from morning till night. Bush
has passed his first major test through a combination of caution, luck and
a commendable ability to take good advice from an exceptionally competent,
mature and experienced team of carefully selected executives. His sunny
self-confidence, CEO style of working and penchant for bankers’ hours
with long weekends, have made him an acceptable figure among the American
public, despite having lost popular vote to Al Gore. He has kept his focus
on the themes he campaigned on viz cutting taxes, reforming education,
expanding access to health care while reforming Medicare, creating
personal Social Security accounts, strengthening military and intelligence
capabilities and bringing honour and dignity back to the White House. Both
in domestic and foreign policy fields he has shown a tendency to go
‘right’ and seemingly pro-active. To those outside US, what will be of
interest is to watch the tussles between his Secretary of State Colin
Powell, a diplomatic moderate and Defence Secretary Donald Rumfeld
somewhat a hawk, with Vice President Dick Cheney in the latter’s camp
and Security Adviser Condolezza Rice on Powell’s side. May be the
combinations and the roles are intentional so as to arrive at the best
decisions. In general, Bush has passed the test and people see his steady
activity with an impression of a person determined to give US a dynamic
and positive leadership. Whites
in Minority in Many Big US Cities An
analysis of the year 2000 census has revealed that whites are now a
minority in 52 of the biggest 100 cities in US. This change is coming
about more in the faster developing cities/urban population centers like
Las Vegas and Phoenix. The growing non-white population is a mix of
Blacks, Hispanics and Asians. At the moment, this change is perceived
largely in terms of potential problems in providing public services and
creating new political divisions. Those in the Local, State and Federal
administration are duly conscious of their society continuing to be a
cauldron of immigrants and determined to face the changes in a positive
manner without lacking awareness of their contribution. This is something
that needs emulation by all mixed societies in the world and more so in
India. US
May Get the Spy Plane Back In
what appears to be the first step to return the US spy plane, China has
agreed to allow American personnel to inspect the damaged aircraft at
Hainan airfield. A team of experts has arrived there to assess the damage
and work out the modalities of bringing the plane back. It is also
understood that US has agreed to make a payment towards the expenses
connected with its return. Anatomy
of Sino-US Relations China
has been pushed around, plundered and carved up by one country after
another, ever since Britain went to war with it in 1839 to force it to buy
opium. Such predations created ferocious waves of nationalism. In
1899-1900 the ultra-nationalist group of Boxers rampaged against
foreigners under the slogan ‘protect the country, destroy the
foreigner’. The Boxers slaughtered foreign missionaries and killed a far
greater number of Chinese Christians. Later the communist movement was
another form of nationalism borne out of deprivation by the well-to-do
class, which to common people’s mind was supported by the foreigners
including the Americans. A
still newer face of nationalism now is something that the Communist Party
started after Tiananmen, as a possible glue to unite the country. With the
break-up of the Soviet Union, Communism as a bulwark of unifying force,
was discredited hence leaders like Jiang Zemin used the education system
and propaganda apparatus to nurture a prickly national pride and suspicion
of the outside world. The new unifying force in China is patriotism and
such movements always have extremist possibilities. The rapid economic
development leading to the modernization and strengthening of its armed
might, have given China a vision of an emerging super power –– a
substitue to the Soviet Union. As China has become more open in recent
years, public opinion has come to matter more, a development which may
make it more complex, nationalistic and obdurate. The
growing US–China economic relations have caused envy and resentment
among the Chinese people, something like a love-hate relationship. Many
Chinese believe that the US is a bully and Beijing should stand up more
firmly to Washington and Tokyo alike, that Tibetan monks should be tossed
in jail and any move by Taiwan toward independence should be dealt with
militarily by occupation. A more democratic China is not necessarily less
nationalistic China. The government in China today seems more afraid of
the people than the other way around. The leaders know that protests by
students, workers or even peasants could paralyze the country and even
provoke a coup d’etat. The taste of newfound freedom of thought and
action brought in by the injection of capitalism through privatization of
economy and entry of multinationals has encouraged nationalistic fervour,
a force to tackle the inferiority complex vis-à-vis the United States. The
bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade and the loss of a Chinese
fighter pilot and aircraft, due to collision with American spy plane, are
not seen as isolated incidents but a continuation in the string of over
200 years of “guochi”
meaning national humiliation –– another attempt by foreign powers to
weaken China and hold it back. What has further complicated the mutual
relationship is President Bush’s change of terminology from ‘strategic
partner’ to ‘strategic competitor’. In
an interview with the Washington Post on 24 Apr the President described
ties with China as "maturing" and that "people are
beginning to understand what I mean by strategic competitors — that it's
not necessarily a bad thing. I say the Chinese are beginning to understand
what that means. That there's areas where we can agree, like trade, and
there's areas where we won't agree, and that is the defense, the serious
defense of Taiwan." Bush
has made it clear that if Taiwan came under attack from China, he would
order whatever it took to help the island defend itself. During his
presidential campaign he had questioned the wisdom of ‘strategic
ambiguity’ about how US would react if hostilities broke out across the
Taiwan Strait and asserted that he would be clear about Taiwan, which he
seems to have done in the wake of the spy plane incident. In
the Senate, the opposition (Democrats) have called this to have profound
implications for the country and termed it as a major policy change that
would serve neither “our interest nor Taiwan’s”. No other President
in the past two decades had made such a categorical statement. What gives optimism and hope of better mutual relations is, however, the presence of practical thought among a large number of Chinese people too. They understand that they have to trade with US and that if relationships with US were damaged then their living standards would be damaged. All the same any complications in US–China relationships will also create challenges to Indian diplomacy in redefining the bilateral as well as multilateral relations with both these countries as well as Russia and Japan |