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New
Delhi, 29 August 2006
Dr
Manmohan Singh is not known for his cricketing skills, but more as
the Finance Minister who saved India from defaulting on its external
debt in 1991. Yet recently he had to bowl against three formidable
batsmen on the pitch created by the Nuclear Deal he negotiated with
President Bush. The PM’s UPA allies, the CPM were not happy with
some clauses, and the BJP went to town even on clauses which did not
exist, while the former nuclear doyens (scientists) of India
revolted as one. The fact that Dr Singh used his oratory,
forbearance and patience to answer the first two in Parliament and
bowl them over, and then spoke technology to the scientists in a
closed door session on Sunday at his residence, can be termed a hat
trick for India’s Prime Minister. All this augurs well as the deal
impinges on India’s strategic future and energy security, so
essential for India’s growth.
A walk
down memory lane to appreciate Dr Singh’s thinking is called for. It
is he who set India on a path of economic growth and uniquely
implemented a dual rate of conversion of foreign exchange in 1992,
that worked despite the Doubting Thomases. Dr Singh was assisted by
Montek Alhuwalia currently his sounding board in the Planning
Commission, and a team of like minded economists that propelled
India on its present path of liberalisation. Dr Singh admitted he
had changed his approach from being a Fabian economist to a realist
modern day believer in globalisation, but with a heart for the poor,
seeking a middle path. The PM has not changed in his approach.
In
1991 Dr Singh arrived in Singapore from Bangkok with Alhuwalia after
attending the Paris Club meeting where he successfully secured a $3
billion loan, to bail India out. There were of course IMF conditions
attached, and PM Narasimha Rao was informed of the details in a two
page coded dispatch sent from the Singapore mission, effortlessly
dictated by Ahluwalia. A large team of bankers, industrialists,
economists and civil servants including secretaries N K Singh,
Geetakrishnan power secretary and economist Deepak Nayyar flew in
from Delhi with the then Commerce Minister P Chidambaram. Their
Singapore mission was to garner funds, loans and investments in
power projects including Enron as Foreign Direct Investments. Dr
Singh was undemanding and unassuming, and the two Ministers had a
delightful husband–wife economists’ team as their personal
secretaries, who coordinated programmes smoothly.
Dr
Manmohan Singh surprisingly took great interest in the briefing
given to him on Singapore’s large 700,000 strong reservist military
and ASEAN’s security concerns, which included India’s nuclear
submarine INS Chakra. When Singh noted Singapore’s defence budget of
$ 2.3 billion in 1991, was almost one third of India’s for a mere
2.5 million people and the 625 sq miles island state he posed
questions. The High Commissioner and the Defence Adviser had to
explain the concept of ‘Total Defence’, whose architects were Lee
Kuan Yew, Goh King Swee and Rajaratnam. Surprisingly the briefing
lasted long and India’s security issues and defence budget were also
discussed. Dr Singh is a researcher, and next day casually asked
some searching questions on larger security issues which impinged on
economics. Singapore’s belief that a benign strategic relationship
was essential for economic cooperation, is what Singapore had
pursued for its rise and with India steadfastly for the last 12
years. The Indo–US Strategic pact and now the nuclear deal
reinforces that belief as
India
is emulating it. Sanjay Barua media adviser to Dr Singh has also
alluded to this, in his recent book which includes defence
economics.
Dr
Singh this time around as PM, is once again in search for that
middle path of globalisation, which can uplift the millions in
India, and yet propel India forward. India’s economy today is poised
for the rich, endowed and educated young who can find their feet in
entrepreneurial outlets or secure jobs, but uplift of the poor,
attention to infrastructure and energy and national security
internal and external, need greater attention and depth of
knowledge. Energy security is now scripted in the UN charter with
other securities, and will greatly impact India’s strategic
interests in the future. Last week in Parliament while rendering a
robust reply to the opposition on the Indo–US Nuclear deal, stroke
by stroke, the PM spoke of safe guarding India’s strategic
interests.
Dr
Singh used bytes like ‘history will judge me,’ and ‘trust me,’ and
‘we have to take risks’, which is what leadership and pragmatism is
all about. These were the sentiments Mrs Indira Gandhi and Gen. Sam
Manekshaw and the three Chiefs respectively employed when they led
the nation, in the 1971 war. Sam was the last leader to behave as a
self appointed Chief of Defence Staff, to ensure strategic
coordination for tactical actions and
Bangladesh
was born. Dr Singh’s present stance and oratory augurs well for
India’s image as a new born leader in the region. India need not be
shy any more or apologize for its strength. No more should India
craft its security to meet regional threats, but more as a regional
power and to take on the responsibility that goes with it, to ensure
stability.
India’s ambitious missile programmes, the ATV nuclear submarine
being readied at Vishakapatnam, the Sagarika underwater launched
missile vehicle being tested at Wheeler’s Island, coupled with
India’s military ambitions in space, the acquisition of refueling
air tankers for long range flying and the soon to be acquired
Phalcon AWACs, and possibly Akula submarines and the aircraft
carrier INS Vikramaditya (Gorshkov) by 2008, will completely alter
the balance of power in the Indian Ocean. It is economic might
coupled with military capabilities that make up national power in
the main, and it is evident to the world that India is on its way to
achieve it, supported by the soft power strengths and now an
industrial boom, being witnessed in parts of India.
Dr
Singh has since assuaged the retired nuclear scientific community
which had toiled relentlessly and secretly, to make India a nuclear
power. He assured them that their concerns on the need to keep the
home grown Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) and Thorium reactor
technology, out of IAEA and US reach would be met. He has also
assured them that India will have the ability to process adequate
fissile material for its needed arsenal, which will not be capped
despite the deal. We are confident the PM has a plan to ameliorate
the large costs of separating the military and civilian nuclear
facilities, as at present they are incestuously inter-twined, and
the civilian nuclear scientists rightly seem worried on that
account, for the future. Those in the know of nuclear arsenals, are
aware the Armed Forces cannot take over the management of the
fission nuclear cores stored at BARC, and the neutron triggers,
detonators, lenses, safety locks and the electronics stowed
elsewhere –– that are needed to assemble the devices (war heads).
BARC and DRDO’s Terminal Ballistic Research Laboratory (TBRL)
scientists at Chandigarh will have to continue to research and do
what they do today, for India’s minimum credible nuclear deterrent,
and keep improving on timings of assembly. The Armed Forces will
have to practice with dummy warheads, and the Strategic Force
Commander (SFC) will have to designate targets and match inter
service procedures.
Dr
Manmohan Singh has explained all this to the nation, and stated his
work is cut out in India’s economic and security domains and his
lips echo the words “Trust Me, as you did in 1991”.
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