New Delhi, 20
April 2003
Militarily
the Anglo–US war on Iraq proceeded exceedingly well and the world
economy led by USA is poised to look up. Indians can be the gainers,
but the Government must play its cards with finesse and stop
critcising. USA, which holds the trumps. China did not criticize
USA. Internally the BJP Government which had done well economically
must stop bashing Nehru, stop propagating too much of Hindutva and
get on with governance, while attending to India’s security
concerns. It is only when security concerns are duly attended to
that a Nation’s economy flourishes.
India’s
security concerns are linked with Pakistan, USA and China. At this
juncture, we learn that George Fernandes is off to China on 20th
April and that is a very significant development. The war on Iraq
encouraged debate on the India–Pakistan flash point along the LOC
in the media world over. There was hope that a road map would emerge
for Palestine. The India–Pakistan road map should follow but will
it? BBC did a programme indicating that Pakistan had picked up
economically and that ‘Op Parakaram’ which was designed to bleed
Pakistan had not succeeded. Prem Shankar Jha did a brilliant piece
in the Week and concluded that it was time to begin talk of LOC as
the International Border. Ambassador Rasgotra warns it will be
thrust on India and Pakistan, if we do not attend to it.
We hark
back to the 1948 utterances by Nehru on the Cease Fire Line being an
ethnic divide. The 1965 Tashkent Agreement by Shastri, Shimla
Agreement by Mrs Gandhi and the Lahore bus ride by PM Vajpayee,
all these gave a clear indication that India was always willing to
settle the India–Pakistan border along the LOC, give or take some.
Pakistan has to be forced to settle and may be ready now. President
Clinton told both countries to maintain the sanctity of the LOC and
Bush has also supported this stance fully, but he wants India’s
ROAD MAP. Now is the time to bell the Pakistani cat. But with the
general elections in 2004 with BJP wanting to gain a majority, no
Government in India can say lets settle, at this time. So what is
George going to China for? –– is the question being asked in
Military circles. Is it to explain what he said in May 1998, or ask
China to stop supplying arms to Pakistan, or help solve our border
dispute? Summer is visiting times for Ministers, so is this just a
diversion?
Recently
our bickering politicians committed a bloomer. Just when India was
poised to get on to USA's right side, they bowled a googly. Indians
are rightly upset that India and Pakistan were being equated by USA
and Pakistan was being molly coddled. There is no question of India
being treated on a par with Pakistan in any sphere. Look at the
relative size of the two countries. Compare their respective
populations and GDPs. Pakistan has an estimated population of 145
million while India is a billion plus. That makes India seven times
bigger. Even more significant is the relative size of their GDP
–– Pakistan is a $65bn economy; India a $450bn ($700bn black)
plus economy. That makes India, again, more than seven times bigger.
But is that any reason to be upset with USA and pass a Parliament
resolution against the American war on Iraq, about which
Indians can do nothing? The Parliament passes a resolution and then
the Nation goes in for nine days of holidays, while Haryana declares
a full fortnight. This makes us repeat that in International
relations we normally shoot ourselves in the foot.
USA
is India's largest trading partner and now China has taken up the No
2 Position, which is not widely publicised. In defence, goods China
is on the negative list but it is employing Indians to make its
software in India. On 15th May 1998, George Fernandes called
China India's No1 threat, just after the Pokhran-2 blasts, while PM
Vajpayee explained in a letter to Clinton that because of China's
nuclear capability India was obliged to go nuclear. The Chinese were
upset and want an apology. In this light, George Fernandes’s visit
will be watched.
Much
water has flown down the Ganges and Yangtze and the Chinese are
saying “lets bury the past”. One hopes, it is in this spirit
that RM George Fernandes is proceeding to China this month and let
us hope India's MEA has done its homework –– to tell the Chinese
what India expects on the Border question and Pakistan. In the
former case China has a plan to say, “Keep what you have in
the East, lets give and take a little in the middle, and when you
and Pakistan sort out the Kashmir dispute then only can we discuss
Aksai Chin”, knowing it is too late already.
The
Bush administration's major policy document released just some
months ago, "The National Security Strategy of the United
States of America", describes India as a "potential great
power" along with Russia and China. The following summarizes
the Bush Administration's vision of the future of US–India
relations but we must play our cards well, vis a vis China:
-
The
United States has undertaken a transformation in its bilateral
relationship with India based on a conviction that US interests
require a strong relationship with India. We are the two largest
democracies, committed to political freedom protected by
representative government. India is moving toward greater
economic freedom as well. We have a common interest in the free
flow of commerce, including through the vital sea-lanes of the
Indian Ocean. Finally, we share an interest in fighting
terrorism and in creating a strategically stable Asia.
-
Differences
remain, including over the development of India's nuclear and
missile programmes, and the pace of India's economic reforms.
But while in the past these concerns may have dominated our
thinking about India, today we start with a view of India as a
growing world power with which we have common strategic
interests. Through a strong partnership with India, we can best
address any differences and shape a dynamic future.
We
note the tone of "The National Security Strategy" document
in its references to India and China is very interesting; India is
cast in a positive light as a rising democratic power, while China's
leaders are chided for taking that country along an undemocratic
path.
Pakistan,
by the way, is hardly mentioned in that document, except
incidentally. India has a long border with many other countries,
especially China, and India has major responsibilities including
patrolling and guarding the Indian Ocean from terrorists and
pirates.
US
policymakers defend arms sales as a way to secure a growing
relationship with India and Pakistan. The key, they say, is to
balance the short-term goal of working with Pakistan's military to
root out Al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, with the longer-term
goal of building close ties with both India and Pakistan. India must
buy arms from USA. As per Christian Science Monitor India has
purchased $8.2bn worth of arms over the past decade. Over the same
period, Pakistan has spent nearly $1.7 billion on jet fighter
aircraft, artillery guns, armoured vehicles, battle tanks, and
surface-to-air missiles.
India
has every thing going for it and George Fernandes’s visit to China
is significant. He must take some good senior officers with him to
assess China further, and see that the noises being made that China
be barred from some businesses in India are toned down.
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