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New Delhi, 11 June 2015
The concept of Cold Start was
postulated by the author in 'Russia India Report'
of
16 March 2015 and is reproduced here for our readers - Editor
Rooted in Soviet military tactics, the Indian Army’s Cold Start
doctrine is putting the heat on Pakistan.
"In the Russian view, there is another serious threat that should be
discussed: Pakistan. Pakistan is a nation with nuclear weapons,
various delivery systems and a domestic situation that is highly
unstable. Russia assesses that Islamists are not only seeking power
in Pakistan but are also trying to get their hands on nuclear
materials". – Wikileaks, November 2010.
The Russian assessment of the Pakistani nuclear threat has to be
seen in the backdrop of Islamabad’s insecurity-fueled weapons
programme. The country has not only cranked up its production of
nuclear warheads, it is doing so primarily in the area of
battlefield nuclear
weapons designed for use against the Indian Army’s Armour and troop
concentrations. While Pakistan’s strategic arsenal is said to be
under constant scrutiny by US intelligence agencies, the tactical
warheads will be located in forward bases, presenting a tempting
target for
terrorist groups.
The exact number of nuclear warheads in any country’s armoury is a
closely guarded secret, but guesstimates are that by the end of the
decade Pakistan will overtake France’s tally of around 300 nuclear
warheads.
Strange as it may seem, many in the West blame India for Pakistan’s
nuclear underground. They are of the view that it is India’s new
Cold War military doctrine that is accelerating the production of
nuclear weapons next door. The fact that it's the Americans – along
with China
– who had actively helped Pakistan develop nuclear weapons is
conveniently forgotten.
To
be sure, Pakistan has embarked upon a wasteful militarisation
programme that could wreck its economy because of the fear of India.
According to Wikileaks, more than the al-Qaida, more than American
plans to seize its nuclear stockpile, or even a hostile Afghan
government, what’s causing jitters among Pakistani generals is Cold
Start – a new version of blitzkrieg being perfected by the Indian
Army.
So
deeply does it dread Cold Start that the Pakistani military has
increased its output to an all-time high of over 20 nuclear bombs
annually. To understand why Pakistan is now upping the ante with
battlefield nuclear weapons, we need to understand the dynamics
unleashed by Cold Start.
India
Army: Need for Speed
India
and Pakistan have fought wars in 1948, 1965, 1971 and 1999. Each of
these conflicts was launched by the Pakistani military with the
knowledge that if its military thrusts failed, its patrons – the US
and China – could be relied upon to work the diplomatic back
channels,
get the world media to raise the alarm, and issue veiled threats,
thereby bringing pressure upon India’s political leadership to call
off its attack.
India’s military strategy was different. After the defending corps
along the border soften Pakistan’s frontal positions, the mechanised
columns of India’s elite strike corps roll across the border,
destroy the core of the Pakistan Army and slice the country in two,
giving the
political leadership a huge bargaining advantage sounds like a
bullet-proof strategy. But because India’s strike corps were based
in central India, a significant distance from the
international border, it took up to three weeks for these three
armies – comprising hundreds of thousands of troops – to reach the
front. Because of the long mobilisation period, the intervention by
Western nations and the truce-happy nature of its political
leadership,
India’s military brass could not use its strike forces to their full
potential.
Quick Strikes
Cold Start was designed to run around this logistical Maginot Line.
The doctrine reorganises the Indian Army’s offensive power away from
the three large strike corps into eight smaller division-sized
battle groups that combine mechanised infantry, artillery, and
armour in a
manner reminiscent of the Soviet Union’s operational maneuver
groups.
According to Dr Subhash Kapila, an international relations and
strategic affairs analyst at the New Delhi-based South Asia Analysis
Group, Cold Start aims to seize the initiative and finish the war
before India’s political leadership loses its nerve.
“The long mobilisation time gives the political leadership time to
waver under pressure, and in the process deny the Indian Army its
due military victories,” says Kapila. “The new war doctrine would
compel the political leadership to give political approval
‘ab-initio’ and
thereby free the armed forces to generate their full combat
potential from the outset.”
The crux of Cold Start is: Pakistan must not enjoy the luxury of
time. Cold Start aims for eight
“Battle Groups”, comprising independent armoured and mechanised
brigades that would launch counterattacks within hours. These Battle
Groups will be fully integrated with the Indian Air Force and naval
aviation, and launch multiple strikes round the clock into
Pakistan.
Each Battle Group will be the size of a division (30,000-50,000
troops) and highly mobile unlike the strike corps. Ominously for
Pakistan, the Battle Groups will be well forward from
existing garrisons. India’s elite strike forces will no longer sit
idle waiting for the opportune moment, which never came in the last
wars.
Calculus of War
In
a Harvard paper on Cold Start, Walter C. Ladwig writes, “As the
Indian military enhances its ability to implement Cold Start, it is
simultaneously degrading the chance that diplomacy could diffuse a
crisis on the subcontinent. In a future emergency, the international
community may find the Battle Groups on the road to Lahore before
anyone in Washington, Brussels or Beijing has the chance to act.”
Cold Start is also aimed at paralysing Pakistani response. Although
its operational details remain classified, it appears that the goal
would be to have three to five Battle Groups entering Pakistani
territory within 72 to 96 hours from the time the order to mobilise
is issued.
“Only such simultaneity of operations will unhinge the enemy, break
his cohesion, and paralyse him into making mistakes from which he
will not be able to recover,” writes Gurmeet Kanwal, director,
Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi. Agrees Ladwig: “Multiple
divisions operating independently have the potential to disrupt or
incapacitate the Pakistani leadership's decision making cycle, as
happened to the French high command in the
face of the German blitzkrieg of 1940.”
Also, rather than seek to deliver a catastrophic blow to Pakistan
(i.e., cutting the country in two), the goal of Indian military
operations would be to make shallow territorial gains, 50-80 km
deep, that could be used in post-conflict negotiations to extract
concessions from Islamabad. Where the strike corps had the power to
deliver a knockout blow, the
Battle Groups can only “bite and hold” territory. This denies
Pakistan the “regime survival” justification for employing nuclear
weapons in response to India's conventional attack.
Tactical Nukes: Pakistan’s Back-Up
Pakistan
has declared it will launch nuclear strikes against India when a
significant portion of its territory has been captured or is likely
to be captured, or the Pakistani military suffers heavy losses. At
the same time the Pakistani military is taking out another
insurance policy – through battlefield nuclear weapons. The message
is that Islamabad is prepared to use these compact warheads, which
can be launched on purpose-built short range rockets, such as the
much hyped Nasr, in the early days of war. This can be interpreted
in two ways. One, Pakistan has come round to the thinking that it
can never defeat the Indian Army. Two, the Pakistani generals
believe Cold Start cannot be allowed to stymie their plan to bleed
India “with a thousand cuts”. In their view, achieving nuclear
deterrence is not a victory but to stop their proxy war against
India would be a defeat. This is not something to be taken
lightly as it shows that the Pakistani elites want perpetual
conflict with India in order to control Pakistani resources for
their own benefit.
Calling the Bluff
What if Pakistan uses tactical nuclear bombs against the Indian
Army’s Battle Groups the moment Cold Start is initiated? In Kapila’s
view, Pakistan’s low nuclear threshold is a myth – perpetuated and
planted by Western academia and think tanks. This suits the needs of
the
conservative American establishment in whose eyes India is a
long-term rival and Pakistan a useful, if unreliable, ally.
Unfortunately, India’s political leadership and its uncritical media
have been brainwashed into believing that Cold Start has apocalyptic
consequences.
“Nuclear warfare is not a commando raid or commando operation with
which Pakistan is more familiar," says Kapila. “Crossing the nuclear
threshold is so fateful a decision that even strong American
Presidents in the past have baulked at exercising it or the
prospects
of exercising it.” Pakistan cannot expect India would sit idle and
suffer a Pakistani nuclear strike without a massive nuclear
retaliation.
Broken Arrows: Threat for the West, Not India
The spectre of battlefield nuclear weapons under the direct control
of commanders who sympathise with Islamic terrorists no doubt scares
a lot of people. According to Wikileaks, in the Russian view,
“extremist organisations have more opportunities to recruit people
working in (Pakistan’s) nuclear and missile programmes”.
Although Pakistan’s strategic nukes are stored in well guarded
depots, the miniaturised tactical nukes are harder to supervise
24/7.To ensure battlefield nuclear weapons are used at the opportune
time, field commanders need independent charge and prior clearance.
This is why German Army commanders have independent control of
American nuclear
warheads kept at NATO bases in Germany.
There is no need for New Delhi to feel alarmed. If, say, the
al-Qaeda or the Islamic State manages to get hold of a battlefield
nuke, the biggest threat is not to India but to Pakistan and the
West. It is the West that made a Faustian bargain with Pakistan in
order to target
Russia. And like all Faustian bargains there comes a time to pay up.
A broken arrow (code for a lost nuclear bomb) from Pakistan’s
arsenal is more likely to explode in New York or London than New
Delhi.
However, if these terrorists brandish nukes against India, it is
Pakistan that will have to deal with the consequences. American
strategic analyst, Ralph Peters, the author of Looking for Trouble,
says: “Let India deal with Pakistan. Pakistan would have to behave
responsibly at last. Or face nuclear-armed India. And Pakistan's
leaders know full well that a nuclear exchange would leave their
country a wasteland. India would dust itself off and move on.
Islamabad
is thus faced with the cold reality that India is prepared to
undertake offensive operations without giving it time to bring
diplomatic leverages into play. Since India has declared it will not
resort to a nuclear first strike, the onus is on Pakistan and its
patrons – the US and China. A South Asian nuclear exchange has the
potential to spiral out of control, sucking in China, the US, the
Islamic world and Russia. That would drive the global economy right
over the cliff. Therefore, argues Kapila, “A nuclear conflict will
take place in South Asia only if the United States wants it and lets
Pakistan permissively cross the nuclear threshold.” Without firing a
shot
The beauty of Cold Start is it may never have to be used. It screws
with the Pakistani military’s mind and forces the generals to spend
time and scarce resources on finding ways to stop an Indian
blitzkrieg. Cold Start also works to undermine the much smaller
Pakistani economy.
According to the Pakistani media, the threat of the Indian Cold
Start doctrine and increase in India’s defence budget has prompted
the Pakistan government to sharply increase its defence budget,
further increasing the strain on that country’s fragile economy.
However, if at all Pakistan uses tactical nuclear warheads on Indian
armoured columns thundering towards its cities, it would end up
devastating its own Punjabi heartland. Most Pakistani cities are
close to the border and would become uninhabitable while India would
lose
only a small part of its army. Cold Start was devised by India’s
brightest military minds to end the standoff in the subcontinent. In
their view, no country can be allowed
to export terror and brandish nuclear weapons at India, without a
fitting response. As Chanakya wrote in the Arthashastra, the Indian
treatise on statecraft, 2300 years ago: “The antidote of poison is
poison, not nectar.”
The opinion of the writer may not necessarily reflect the position
of RIR.
(Source:
http://in.rbth.com/blogs/2015/03/16/how_indias_cold_start_is_making_the_world_a_safer_place_41995.html
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