New
Delhi, 14 March 2005
India
should be concerned that the US Ex–Im Bank will be
subsidising a major Chinese nuclear facility to the
tune of $5 billion. USA my be merely thinking of the
economics of the issues but studies show China’s
GNP will overtake USA's by 2040 and India's GNP will
also rise steadily.
The
US Ex–Im Bank deal seems to be out of sync with
American non-proliferation policy elsewhere in the
world. Many of China's state-owned defence
firms benefit from trade with America and have
historically proliferated dangerous technology to
rogue and unstable regimes around the world, like North
Korea, Iran and Pakistan. Hence we in India
need to take note that China’s maritime power is
getting a great deal of attention and Indian defence planners
need to realise that the Indian Navy and our
maritime industry should get a larger share of the
budget and attention.
In IDSA's
latest Strategic Digest K Subrahmanyam
has unfolded details of the exclusive interview he
had with late PM Narasimha Rao, who had explained
all that he achieved for India's nuclear quest. He had briefed the incoming PM Atal Behari
Vajpayee fully on this, and his advice contributed
to the SHAKTI nuclear tests in 1998. We hope Atalji
has updated PM Manmohan Singh and in turn he briefs
Mrs Sonia Gandhi, Natwar Singh and the NSA M K
Narayanan and Pranab Mukherjee, as they all
contribute to India’s strategic thinking. The
Sonia Gandhi–Manmohan Singh relationship makes a
piquant situation as far as Defence is concerned ––
according to our Constitution Defence is the
collective responsibility of the Cabinet with the PM as
the de facto Commander. Narasimha Rao also confessed
that he curtailed the defence budget in his time to
augment nuclear spending. The Navy’s ATV nuclear
submarine project may have also benefited as the PM
is at its apex.
At
the same time news from USA suggests that Mr. Donald
Rumsfeld has an agenda for a massive review of
defense spending and strategy. Because the process
is conducted only once every four years, the review
represents the Bush administration's best chance to
refashion the military into a cheaper force capable
of delivering on the ambitious security and foreign
policy goals that President Bush put forth since the
terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
China
on the other hand is steadily increasing its defence
spending. In India the Air Force has pushed all guns
to form a Strategic Aerospace Command which is
another expensive venture and the Navy may get side
tracked, now that the Army is also to get a new South
Western Command at Jaipur –– the defence budget is
limited and a Navy takes time to be built up! The
only silver lining is that Indian warship building
had improved. So we need to watch China and get our
naval power going to be on equal footing.
As
a maritime power, China's naval developments remain
an issue of intense interest as its meteoric
economic development paves the way for it's
transformation into a major global power. In light of
Beijing's quest to secure energy resources, its
extensive maritime seaboard, and unresolved
territorial disputes, Chinese naval interests
deserve continued attention. Undoubtedly, the
People's Liberation Army Navy's (PLAN) ability to
adequately defend China's sea lines of communication
(SLOCs) will be critical to protecting its overseas
interests.
Hence
Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R. Calif.), one of the harshest China
critics in Washington called the US Ex–Im deal,
"yet
more proof of the insanity of our China policy."
The latest State Department Human Rights
Report on China says, "citizens did not have
the right to change their government, and many who
openly expressed dissenting political views were
harassed, detained, or imprisoned."
At
a national maritime awards meeting in the Great Hall
of the People in Beijing on 20 December 2004, Vice
Premier Zeng Peiyan emphasized the importance of
marine development, acknowledging the fact that
China, with more than 9,000 miles of coastline and
over 6,000 islands in its strategic picture, depends
on the sea for food and trade and has often relied
on naval power to defend vital national interests.
Oil and gas will be the need of China. The country
became the world's third largest commercial
shipbuilder in 1995 and has set its sights on
overtaking Japan and South Korea within the next
decade. It also has the world's largest naval
shipbuilding program. Beijing is party to six of
East Asia's more than two dozen maritime territorial
disputes:
-
Taiwan.
-
The Senkaku Islands/Diaoyutai with
Japan.
-
Land features and the water areas of the
South China Sea, with Taiwan, Vietnam, the
Philippines, Brunei, and Malaysia.
-
The maritime border with
Vietnam.
-
Fisheries areas and quotas, with North
Korea, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, and the
Philippines.
-
The Maritime Border with Japan.
The
Future of PLA Navy (PLAN)
Since the late 1990s, the quality and quantity of
output from China's commercial and naval shipyards
has risen sharply. China received the first of eight
636 Submarines from Russia. While India may just
about sign the Scorpene submarine deal ––
it must not be forgotten that our submarines and MR aircraft are aging. By 2010,
the PLAN will probably number approximately seventy
modern surface combatants; two to three
ballistic-missile submarines; and 20 to 30 modern
attack submarines, perhaps six of them
nuclear-powered. The Marine Corps, recently expanded
from one to two brigades, may add a third unit
although its assault mission will keep it tasked to
the South and possibly the East Sea Fleets. The production and development of support vessels
such as transport craft and landing ships was also
being stepped up.
A
new generation of conventional and nuclear attack as
well as missile submarines is being developed to
replace the PLA navy's outdated Ming-class
conventionally powered (SS), first-generation Han
class nuclear powered submarines (SSN) and Xia class
nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines. The
first hull of the new generation Type 093 SSN, which
is equivalent to the US navy's first generation Los
Angeles class SSN, is reported to have been launched
with Russian help in the past year or so and is
expected to enter service soon. More than six
vessels of the indigenously developed Song-class SS
have so far been built. The initial development of
the Song encountered significant design and
engineering problems, especially related to
propulsion, but they appear to have been resolved
and are now coming off the production lines at a
rate of one annually.
The Type 052C Lanzhou-class guided missile destroyer
has been developed by the Chinese shipbuilding
industry and is equipped with stealth features and a
long-range area air-defence missile system that has
been compared to the early models of the US
Aegis-class cruiser. The first ship of this class
was delivered to the PLAN last summer and a
second vessel was to be completed later this year.
Their weapons systems are reported to be similar to
the Soveremeny-class missile destroyers that PLAN had acquired from Russia.
China
has also set its sights on more ambitious targets for the
defence industry's long-term growth. They include:
-
Catching up with the technological standards
of the world's leading arms producers. India too
has that aim but FDI is restricted.
-
Quadrupling the defence industry's aggregate
economic output.
-
Establishing a new R&D and production
system that focuses on civilian–military
integration. India needs to note this and the
outdated Officials Secrets Act needs to be
amended.
-
Adapting management and operational
mechanisms to the country's socialist market
economy.
-
Making additional breakthroughs in institutional reform
and further adjusting the size and structure of the
defence industry.
|