Central Asia
is the region of ex-Soviet Union extending from the west of
Caspian Sea to China in the east, Iran/Afghanistan in the
south and Russian Caucasian states in the north. It comprises
what are now independent republics –– Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgystan –– the last
two have no littoral with the Caspian –– and all have mainly a
Muslim population. Central Asia was conquered by the Czars in
the second half of 19th century and became a
Russian backyard after being ruled by the Mongols and then
Ottoman Turks. Prior to industrial revolution in Europe, it
was known for the “silk route” that carried trade from China
and India. After remaining on the back burner for a century,
this region has again assumed significance because of the
large oil and gas finds in
Kazakhastan,
Uzbekistan
and Azerbaijan as well as its strategic location vis-à-vis
China,
Iran and Afghanistan. Azerbaijan being west of Caspian,
adjoins another jostling zone of the
Caucasian
Republics of Georgia and Armenia with a large Christian
population.
Central Asia
The Caucasus
Bordering
Georgia and
Azerbaijan is the northern Caucasia, comprising the Russian
federal States of Chechen (Grozny), Ingush,
Ossetia and
Dagestan which have long ongoing ethnic, regional and religious
conflicts with a raging Muslim led insurgency in
Chechnya.
Furthermore, the five littoral states of the Caspian ––
Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan –– have
unresolved issues regarding maritime borders in the Caspian,
problems of the sea-bed delimitation in the southern sector,
rules of military activities and transit as well as conditions
for sub-sea pipelines. Nevertheless, in the absence of an
overall pact,
Moscow
has gone ahead with bilateral agreements with
Kazakhstan
in 2002, and Azerbaijan in 2003. Last July a high level
international conference on Caspian security was held on board
Russia's Caspian Flotilla flagship, Tatarstan where an
idea was voiced for creating a joint naval force of the
littoral states, similar to the Black Sea Force, presumably
under the Russian aegis. It is to be noted that Russia
maintains a largest naval force in the Caspian.
Rivarly
for Power and Influence
While conceding the local control over Central Asia to
Russia, European powers led by Britain first and now the USA
have played chequers throughout the 20th century to deny
Russia an easy access to the Persian Gulf, Middle East and
South Asia, an endeavour which in the earlier era was the
dictum that imperial Russia must stay off Persia and "the
frontiers of Afghanistan and Balochistan. The recent Wars in
Afghanistan –– first to throw the Russians out by creating the
monster of Taliban, which ultimately led to the
disintegration of the Soviet Union and then against the
Taliban forces themselves –– are nothing but the American
version of the earlier military expeditions undertaken by the
British from
India.
With the dismemberment of the Soviet state, and the weakening
of Russian hold, the power games for control/influence in West
Asia, Caucasus and Central Asia have once again been resumed
under the
US
banner, which have been further fueled by the prospects of
large reserves of oil and gas in this region. With its
burgeoning economic growth and energy needs, China has also
become an active player in this power game.
Besides direct military presence obtained under cooperation
for the War on Terror, US has tried to topple pro-Russian
regimes by the so called ‘colour revolutions’ –– first the
Rose Revolution of Dec 03 in Georgia, then the Orange
Revolution of Dec 04 in Ukraine, followed by the Tulip
Revolution in Kyrgyzstan and the bloody Andizhan uprising of
May 05 in Uzbekistan. In the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist
attacks,
Washington
managed to set up military bases –– Karshi Khanabad in
Uzbekistan and at Manas in Kyrgyzstan from where thousands of
US flights to and fro
Afghanistan
have been handled. In addition, it is also seeking three
military-cum-air bases in Azerbaijan (Kurdamir, Nasosnaya and
Guyullah). With
Georgia
being the second largest American aid recipient after Israel,
use of military bases there by Pentagon is a tacit possibility
which Russia has strongly objected to. Tehran apprehends that
any US bases in Azerbaijan would encircle Iran. It therefore
negotiated a defense agreement with
Azerbaijan
last April so that neither side would allow its territory to
be used against the other.
With differences among littoral states regarding the legal
status of the Caspian Sea, collective security amongst Russia,
Azerbaijan, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan
remains a difficult idea, while potential for conflicts arise,
which, in turn, become a pretext for American involvement.
Russia
on its part fears that radars installed in any American bases
in Azerbaijan or Georgia would cover its industrial regions
south of the Urals, which play a vital role in Russia's
overall defenses. It does not want troops of any other country
in Georgia after the Russian withdrawal. US has already
attempted to undermine the Russian monopoly on oil and gas
pipelines from Central Asia to the west with the inauguration
in May 05 of the Baku–Tiblisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline that
passes through Georgia and Turkey. (More about the oil and
gas game in the next article)
As the American aggressive moves cut through the vital
interests of
Russia,
Iran and China, they have done their best to undermine the
US
influence and gains. The color revolutions in
Ukraine
and Kyrgyzstan have been unraveled and the governments there
are now in the hands friendly to Russia. In Georgia too,
president Mikhail Saakashvili's rule is fast reverting to good
old Caucasian ways much to the exasperation of
Washington
despite the generous American bankrolling of the pink
government there. The US agenda of eliminating the Russian
military presence from the south
Caucasus also remains unfinished. The elections of Nov and Dec 05 in
Kazakhstan and
Azerbaijan too, have given power in the hands of friends of
Russia.
Thus, it has been more or less driven home to US that its
political moves in this region have been brought to nought. On
the military front, in July last, president Karimov of
Uzbekistan –– (a look at the map will indicate why
Uzbekistan is strategic for exercising or preventing control
over Central Asian oil pipeline routes to Russia and China) ––
served a notice to US for eviction from Karshi–Khanabad ––
also known as K2 –– air base and despite serious diplomatic
efforts for staying on, the Americans had to finally depart in
end Nov 05. The Uzbek government also told the NATO alliance
it could no longer use Uzbeki territory or airspace for
operations in neighboring Afghanistan. Germany still uses a
base near Termez, along the Uzbek–Afghan border but that too
appears finite.
As if taking a cue from next-door Uzbekistan, the president
of Kyrgyzstan, Bakiyev –– a product of the “Tulip Revolution”,
in Sep 05 demanded that the Pentagon should pay higher rent
for its base in Manas and also dismantle it as soon as the
situation in Afghanistan became stable enough. He made this
statement while on a visit to the Russian military base at
Kant to the north of its capital Bishkek –– in the presence of
the visiting Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov.
Bakiyev on 22 Dec followed this up by asking the United States
to pay "tens of times more" than it currently does”.
Apparently the demand is close to $200 million a year, a
figure so high that it tantamounts to saying, “we want the
United States out altogether”. Bakiyev has also called for
another military base to be opened at Osh in Ferghana Valley
either under the Collective Security Treaty Organisation or
SCO in addition to the Russian one in Kant.
It is,
however, unlikely that Moscow will unduly pressure Bakiyev
with regard to Kyrgyz–US relations. So long as Washington
accepts the ground reality that Russia has legitimate
interests in its neighboring regions, the latter will let the
three-way equation between Moscow, Bishkek and Washington
(leaving out Beijing) remain as it is. Moscow would even
prefer that Washington remain engaged in Kyrgyzstan, given the
uncertainties in the Kyrgyz situation. The Kyrgyz economy
which is critical, needs all the help it can get from abroad.
Kyrgyzstan also needs time to recover from the volatility
caused by the "Tulip revolution".
Not
wanting to be left out of all these contagious thoughts raging
across the post-Soviet space of Central Asia, Tajikistan's
president Rakhmonov announced during a tour of the eastern
regions (bordering China) in Sept 05 that "in Tajikistan there
never was, nor will there be, a US military base" thereby
stifling the possibility of the US troops and equipment to be
based there on being vacated from Uzbekistan. The French air
force has a base at Tajikistan's Dushanbe airport that hosts
about 200 personnel.
Russia
also has, besides a base in Kyrgyzstan at Kant, troops based
in Tajikistan since the collapse of the Soviet Union and a
recent agreement between Moscow and Dushanbe has formalized
the legal status of these troops there.
Russia–China Join Hands to Keep US Out
Russia and
China are making effective counter-moves in the region to
checkmate the Americans and Iran is giving them a helping
hand. The American move to secure bases in Azerbaijan is being
met with the renewed efforts by
Moscow,
Tehran and Baku to collaborate on a North–South transportation
corridor from Russia to the Persian Gulf, Middle East and
South Asia. As a counterweight to US dalliances in West and
Central Asia,
Russia and China are evolving a common position by making
strategic as well as tactical moves. The formation of Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO), which includes Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, China and Russia and then
last year issuing a joint statement that the active military
phase of the Afghan operation was coming to an end and hence
the US-led coalition must set a deadline for ending the
temporary use of bases and air space in member countries.
China has poured more resources into maintaining the SCO than
any other member state (India and Pakistan have been given Observer status).
China has invested heavily in Central Asia to enhance its
energy security. A 1,000-kilometer pipeline from Kazakhstan's
central Karaganda region to its own northwestern Xinjiang
region was commissioned in Dec 05. China is also working with
Uzbekistan to develop its oil fields in the Ferghana Valley
and has invested in hydroelectric projects in
Tajikistan
and Kyrgyzstan.
Coinciding
with the Andijan uprising trial,
Uzbekistan
conducted its first-ever military exercise with
Russia
on its soil and signed a mutual defense pact. Considering the
tortuous course of Uzbek–Russian relations during the 15-year
period since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Tashkent indeed
made an important political statement that geography and
history cannot be easily wished away by neighbours. In May 05,
China gave a red-carpet welcome to Karimov the Uzbeki
president, just days after his bloody crackdown on protesters
and congratulated him on his handling of the riot. Both Russia
and China have made it clear that Washington's interest in
bases in Central Asia has little to do with its ongoing
Afghanistan operations as it already has mega-bases in
Afghanistan, Iraq and Gulf region with no problems for keeping
as many troops and equipment as it wants to. Hence US bases in
Central Asia have more to do with serving as "lily pads" from
which troops may be leapfrogged to nearby trouble-spots at a
moment's notice in pursuance of Yankee interests. Although
Russia was initially concerned about China's deepening
influence in its backyard and
China
too was keen to weaken Russia's political grip over these
countries by enhancing its economic links, both now see a
mutual interest in checking the growing US influence as also
the Islamic insurgency.
India –– A
Small Player
India has no
common border with any of the Central Asian States with
Pakistan and Afghanistan in between. Its energy needs are an
important reason for developing close ties with the region but
vis-à-vis China and Russia it can at the most, exercise only a
“soft” power influence largely due to the historic links and
the existing goodwill. Prospects of trade could also be
beneficial. Recently, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
and India's ONGC Mittal Energy (OME), a consortium comprising
of the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Mittal Group
competed for the Canadian oil company, PetroKazakahstan but
China won the deal. Besides a long term gas deal,
Iran
and India have agreed to jointly develop the Iranian port at
Chahbahar as well as the road linking the port to Afghanistan
and Central Asia, with India having exclusive rights to the
port. The US-backed Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan (TAP) or
Trans-Afghan pipeline is also on the table and with an
improvement in India–Pakistan relations, the pipeline could
potentially be extended to India and renamed TAPI. The
Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline is also on the table though
not being benignly looked at by the US. India has reportedly
established a military and medical facility in Tajikistan. It
is also providing large scale developmental financial and
technical aid to Afghanistan.
Conclusion
After a three
year tug-of-war, the US has lost ground to Russia and China in
the Central Asian region. Russia has shown that it is not
competing with US in the region in zero-sum terms, but will
not hesitate to do what it takes for retaining its influence.
In concert with China it wants to ensure this backyard to be
trouble free. Last August, the Russia–China relationship
reached a symbolic point when both countries engaged in their
first-ever bilateral war games. The exercises, called Peace
Mission 2005, took place from August 18–25 and consisted of
large scale sea, land and air maneuvers. The establishment of
SCO with emphasis on a common defence against any outside
intervention and the “three evils” of extremism, terrorism and
fundamentalism, are signs of a determined posture to serve own
interests in the region. In his recent visit to China on 21
Mar 06, president Putin gave a go-ahead for an oil pipeline
from Siberia to China with priority over the one to Nakhodka
for supply to Japan besides of course upholding a strategic
partnership between the two countries. It is now clear that
the Western integration process in the post Soviet republics
of Ukraine, Caucasus and Central Asia is very much linked to
and conditional on Russia’s own Western orientation. These
republics have realized that for some more time to come, the
integration with the West is counterproductive if it means a
form that separates them from Russia. Furthermore, for China,
the influence in this region besides meeting its energy needs,
also means asserting itself as a global power to rival the
United States.
The coming decade is going to be of great interest to watch
the Eagle, Bear and Dragon in action in this region and how
India
plays its cards to serve its own interests.
(In next Article read “Race for Oil and Gas in
Asia”) |