New Delhi, 06
October 2003
Since
9/11, the UK and Pakistan have been leading allies of the US. While
Britain’s credentials to be termed an all-weather supporter of US
policies on the international chess board has been impeccable and
boldly passed the test of time throughout the cold war, that of
Pakistan has seen quite a few ups and downs. During the cold war,
Pakistan's geography and anti-Communism stance made it an American
favourite. After that in the 90s, the relations began to sour.
Washington grew increasingly unhappy over Pakistan's strong support
for the Taliban, links with Kashmiri terrorists and covert
development of nuclear weapons. Then, in 1999, General Musharraf
overthrew the democratically elected government. By abruptly
switching sides in Afghanistan and letting Washington use Pakistani
bases to fight the Taliban, the military dictator managed to lift
Pakistan's status in Washington from pariah to strategic partner.
But developments, in the last one year or so for Musharraf and more
recently for Tony Blair, have brought clouds over the relationship
of these so called natural allies with their primate. We take a
deeper view of the dark shadows of this situation.
Pakistan
Beneath
the surface of Washington's new closeness with Islamabad, mutual
suspicions have continued to fester. Neither country has fully
delivered what the other expected, though America's shortcomings and
Pakistan's are scarcely equivalent. The Bush administration has
withheld trade benefits and advanced weaponry that Pakistan desires.
General Musharraf has failed to sever all links with international
terrorism. He promised a timely return to democracy and announced he
would expel foreign fundamentalists. His actions have fallen short
of his words. Although it has cooperated in the arrest of some
leaders of al Qaeda, Pakistan has never adequately sealed the Afghan
border. That made it possible for key al Qaeda fugitives to escape
and now allows Pakistani recruits to join a reviving Taliban.
Pakistan still provides Kashmiri terrorists with sanctuary and
access to areas bordering Indian-ruled territory. Wresting Kashmir
away from India remains an open goal of Pakistani policy, with
violence considered a legitimate tool.
Pakistan
has also behaved extremely irresponsibly with respect to nuclear
weapons. It is well known to America and the world that it has
helped both North Korea and Iran develop nuclear weapons technology.
Pakistan's own nuclear weapons are thought to be under General
Musharraf's control, but in a country whose history has been scarred
by repeated military coups, that is not totally reassuring.
Furthermore, democracy remains a distant mirage. To what extent
Pak’s nuclear assets are under US surveillance is a speculative
exercise as it is also reported that some of them have been sent to
Saudi Arabia –– though still under Islamabad’s control.
Pakistan's help in Afghanistan, though less than ideal, is still
needed by the US. Now Washington hopes General Musharraf will
contribute Pakistani peacekeeping troops to Iraq. Though Pakistan
has said that it would send troops under a United Nations flag, our
inference is that Musharraf will not do so quoting internal
difficulties, with the radical following and Muslim world’s
disfavour as compelling constraints. We are convinced that America
must look for ways to reduce its dependence on General Musharraf.
Fighting terrorism effectively requires allies untainted by terror
to give a helping hand and not become a millstone around the
mentor’s neck.
United
Kingdom
One
man, who more conspicuously than any other in the world, stood
beside President Bush as he pushed his case for war against Iraq and
then invaded, was the British
Prime Minister Tony Blair. So much so he came to be called an
American lap-dog. His vociferous and word for word support gave
Bush's war the invaluable tint of multi-lateralism when the United
Nations and most of the world's other powers refused to do so. He in
fact became Bush’s interlocutor on the world stage and undertook
many a diplomatic assignment for Bush in different capitals. Now,
with Blair's government sucked into a scandal involving the suicide
of a top government weapons expert, obscenity-laced notes written by
his top press aide Alistair Campbell, open dissent within the
British intelligence community and the widely held perception that
the government misled the nation about Iraq's military capabilities
in the run-up to the war, he is no longer Washington’s highly
visible ally.
The
days of Blair supporting the Bush doctrine of unilateral and
pre-emptive war seem to be over, at least for now, as he tries to
extricate himself from a downhill tumbling at home. Blair's dramatic
decline in fortunes as a result of the Hutton Inquiry could not have
come at a worse time for Bush. The American president, faced with
mounting domestic dissent over his handling of Iraq, appealed to the
UN General Assembly two weeks ago to support the remoulding of Iraq.
He failed to gather much, if any, new support and many felt, Blair's
absence from the United Nations that day only made Bush look more
isolated and politically vulnerable. In an effort of bravado, Blair
did try, in a run up to UNGA, to mend fences in Bonn with Germany
and France for the sake of his US ally but drew a blank. How could
he come to his mentor’s side when the situation at home was also
reaching a boiling point? An American analyst dubs this as ––
"This has hurt President Bush in the sense that Bush is very
much now fighting a lone battle on the world stage in terms of
defending the record on Iraq”.
Not
helping either the British or American governments' standings was
the marking of the one-year anniversary of the publication of a
British government dossier setting out the case that Saddam Hussein
had weapons of mass destruction that could be used at any minute. No
such weapons have been found or are now expected to be found. A
report said it is now the weapons of rather
personnel than mass destruction that may be found in Iraq. The
inquiry into the apparent suicide of Dr Kelly, a leading expert on
weapons of mass destruction, ended on 26 Sep amid a torrent of
extremely serious accusations that could hamstring Blair for the
rest of his prime ministerial career. Lord Hutton said that he would
be ready to deliver his final report in December. But the damage
has, to a large extent, been done. For weeks the British public has
heard unprecedented intimate accounts of the workings of the
government and the intelligence services. These details have served
only to bolster the opinion that Blair led the country to war under
questionable pretexts. "There's a strong feeling that we were
hoodwinked," said a Labour party leader.
The
lawyer representing the Kelly family at the inquiry summed up their
position, accusing Hoon of hypocrisy and falsehood. Few observers in
Britain think Hoon has many more days left as defense secretary,
especially when Hutton delivers his final report in December.
Although Hoon, Campbell, Gilligan and a host of other characters
have all been directly criticized and damaged by the evidence, Blair
himself has come out of it largely personally unscathed. Few in
Bush’s White House care about the British defense secretary's
career, or even perhaps the suicide of a British official. All of a
sudden, however, Bush is increasingly finding a ghostly shadow at
his side where Blair till so recently stood. Any public defence of
the ally may now be injurious to either in their bid for a second
term.
The
recently held Labour party conference voted to condemn proposals to
create foundation hospitals and called on the government to withdraw
the reform from its health and social care bill. The defeat of the
Labour leadership, though anticipated, came as a blow to Tony Blair
less than 24 hours after his brave speech. Passed on a show of
hands, it would appear that the majority of constituency party and
trade unions delegates voted to condemn the flagship government
policy.
Tony Blair faced further defeat at the Labour conference over plans
to make pension contributions compulsory for employers. Thus the
ally in whose erstwhile empire ‘the sun never set’ appears to
the world humbled and defeated in his arrogant support to Bush’s
neo-conservative designs in Iraq.
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