New Delhi, 25
IDC representative had the privilege of being in strategic circles
in London and this may sound weird but the circles there were
talking of the fourth world war. The third world war was the Cold
War and change is the only constant and we have seen how USA under
Gung Ho President Bush attacked Iraq and got away. Even if Tony
Blair and Australia had not cooperated Bush would have gone ahead.
is a pity that the likes of Brajesh Mishra visit USA and chat with
Condelezza Rice and Donald Rumsfeld and even President Bush drops in
for 15 minutes 末 spend Government money 末 but do not feel
it necessary to inform the world of what they discussed. Well in the
UK there is anger at India cooperating with Iran for Chabahaar and
Kilo class submarine upgrades and support and they say HAL will
support MIG 29Ks. There is anger at terrorism and USA feels only a
new type of war on terrorism in the Middle East and South Asia would
be able to settle matters. That means US power and economy should
never be challenged. France realised this years ago and had planned
for it, UK watches this and supports USA.
is fed up with the terror threat and does not mind USA taking
extreme steps. Well let us be the first to tell you about the
thoughts in UK in strategic circles. India must be ready for it.
we go to upload Raja Menon and VP Malik are in UK in Oxford
attending the Stimson Centre seminar on 'ESCALATION REDUCTION' and
these are attempts for USA to be ready for what they see as a
different type of 'FOURTH WORLD WAR'.
also append two relevant pieces from our friend Ben Boothe who
predicted the Iraq war almost to the day one year ago and he too
smells a rat.
friend Yankila Sherpa is a Member of Parliament of Nepal and a noted
businesswoman. She owns the world famous "SNOW LEOPARD
TREKKING" company of Nepal and was one of the first women to
achieve great business success in Nepal. She sent us this report on
Nepal, which is copied in part.
has had 2 rounds of peace talks with the Maoists. This has brought
great hope into the lives of the Nepali people. Since October 4th
2002 His Majesty King Gyanendra has taken a big role and
responsibility to initiate this peace process. With the great
economic, political and social crisis resulting from the Maoist
conflict of seven years and the total failure of past governments to
come up with a sound plan and action to solve this problem, the
common citizen remained helpless and hopeless. The King has stepped
up his role to bring genuine peace in Nepal. This was initiated by
dissolving the then government and establishing a new interim
government whose central responsibility would be to deal with the
present government is an interim government born out of the chaos in
Nepal. The leaders in the past have failed in their attempt and
commitment to restore peace in Nepal. The Nepalese people in frenzy
and crisis resulting from widespread corruption, immoral leadership
and lack of responsibility, embraced the King's move to step up his
role to deal with this crisis. Ever since, we are seeing a smooth
recovery from this crisis. The present government has been
successful in declaring a ceasefire with the Maoists and has also
held two rounds of talks with the Maoists. The ceasefire and the
peace process is only a means to achieve ultimate peace in Nepal.
The present government has invited all political parties, Maoists
and representatives of the civil society to participate in the round
table to bring an end to the conflict. This initiative was cheered
by the people, the Maoists and the International community. However
some of the leaders of past governments are starting a new wave of
opposition, which could prove fatal to this peace process. After
seven years of widespread war, Nepal has finally seen a positive
hope to heal but this hope could be easily wiped out if we do not
act wisely and responsibly. Now with the dialogue process going on
the government is trying to create an atmosphere for local and
national level elections so that the House of Representatives is
restored. Therefore to have people's representative back in the
government we need to hold elections, which were not possible due to
the conflict in Nepal. We hope that the government is successful in
including all parties in a round table so that they can come to an
agreement, which will bring lasting peace in Nepal.
Ben, tourism seems to be reviving in Nepal. This year 2003, we are
celebrating the 50th anniversary of the first ascent of Mt. Everest
by Sir Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay Sherpa in May of 1953.
Narain is a prominent writer and is with the Center for Science and
Environment in India. He recently met with Jacque Chirac in his
presidential palace. I thought you would enjoy his perspective. He
sent me this report copied in part on ORDERING A NEW WORLD
met Jacques Chirac this fortnight. Just before he made the call to
George Bush and just before he left to attend the European Union
summit in Athens, the French President met some 20 of us in his
presidential palace for discussions on what would be the future of
this increasingly unilateral world. This was the last working
session of a two-day conference organized by an extraordinary French
woman, Laurence Tubiana, who had put together a diverse group of
people 末 from presidents, ministers, academics and activists
末 to deliberate on the challenges of global governance in the
was a fascinating meeting. The world has changed after Iraq. But
just how much. The picture that is emerging from the contemplations
of the most powerful minds sets out the game-plan of a drastically
changed world. Today's foreign policy is based on security concerns.
Terrorism is an invisible enemy and can never really disappear. So
the world will be ordered by a doctrine of 'search-destroy-control'.
Sources of insecurity have been redefined too. It is not only enemy
states that are threats. But insecurity arises from the 'new wars'
末 violence of the state against civilians, organized crime and
the 'new viruses of national and religious extremism'. These threats
breed in what are known as collapsed or failed states 末
authoritarian regimes, unable to adapt to the pressures of
The theory is that the natural resource regions of the world 末
oil-rich, mineral-rich, forest-rich 末 remain marginalized and
poor because the elite and powerful in these nations appropriate the
enormous wealth. Natural resources like oil become an impediment to
democracy and wealth distribution. These are the resource-rich,
low-income nations, with weak institutions and failed public policy.
The 'failed' state breeds civil wars and growing cycles of violence.
Therefore, there is a need for global intervention so that the rule
of law can be established, new institutions built and natural
resource wealth equitably distributed. 'Oil for the people' would be
the war dividend in Iraq and in many other countries, where such
intervention would be ordered.
it is argued that peace, order and stability can best be furthered,
"not by reconfiguring the distribution of power among states
but by altering the authority structure within states". In
other words, America's protection demands that it should fix
messy-nations quickly. Speed is part of the foreign policy design.
Traditional interventions through the UN or through the aid and
assistance programs of multilateral agencies take too much time and
are inefficient. Therefore, the principles of international legal
sovereignty, under which intervention was possible through
international agreement must be abandoned and replaced by the
doctrine of coerced regime change.
The new principle is about "shared sovereignty" 末 in
which external actors take on the management of the resources of
these repressive and corrupt regimes. What is being discussed,
certainly in top US academic-security levels and perhaps in the top
echelons of the administration, is to look for new and innovative
and institutional methods 末 other than military action 末
for coercing change.
instance, proposals are to use external actors like the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the oversight and management
of national central banks; American law enforcement officials
operating in these countries; foreign government and even private
firms taking over the running of the different departments of the
"collapsing" countries. There is also the possible
creation of a corporate style board of directors 末 comprising
of World Bank, IMF and oil companies and even civil society 末
as permanent and long-term arrangements of states.
Chad-Cameroon oil pipeline project of the World Bank, which has
created a trust fund for revenues and oversight by global civil
society, is cited as an instance that can be replicated at a much
larger scale. The plan is delicious because it is so simple. Run the
country, deliver justice and share the proceeds of the natural
resources with the people, not the elite. The world will be a giant
US trusteeship. But what the old imperialists 末 Europe 末
should tell the USA 末 is that such plans often go awry. It is
not always easy to foster democracy through the gun or even the
But this is the realist world-view, which places priority on the
sacred selfishness of countries and the defense of their
self-interest. This is also the view, which is gaining over the
fading multi-lateralist world-view, which demands giving up
sovereignty in some areas, so that international rules for
cooperation can be the basis of action. The problem is that the
rule-making class 末 Europe and its allies 末 are seen as
the wimps. The warrior class is on the ascendancy.
all is not lost. To bring change it is important for us also to
accept that the global problem-solving mechanisms are not working
adequately. We need the redesign or reform current global
institutions or new ways of working around the system 末
networks of institutions朴rivate朴ublic actors to rebuild the
global consensus once again. Rethinking the old world order is vital
if we want to reinvigorate it. The world is increasingly
interdependent. It is increasingly small. It requires the
cooperation of all, not the coercion of some.
can be done. Chirac put it simply at the end of our meeting:
"Strong ideas have the power." This is our hope. Nothing