Secret  Chinese Nuke Build up 

An IDC Analysis


New Delhi, 19 February 2006

The world’s economic shifts are almost Teutonic. Russia in one year doubled its FFE reserves to $154b with oil exports, overtaking India and even Pakistan is doing better with increased Industrial output. The world is experiencing great growth including USA which seems unconcerned about its deficit. India's economy is also seeing a growth of over 8% and we expect this time around the budget will give even greater impetus with elections coming up in 5 states. India and USA are closer than ever, with the Navy leading the military cooperation, and in the East China is at loggerheads with Japan.

China resents the visit of Japanese leaders including Junichiro Kuzomi to the war shrine in Tokyo as disrespect to China but the real reason is that China is upset that USA still supports Taiwan by basing forces in Japan and is doubly upset that Japan has signed a long term agreement on basing US troops and USS George Washington in Japan. So the debate who will lead Asia in 2025 is alive.

Thomas Friedman says China is moving like a car on a freeway at 80 kmph, but there may be a big political bump coming up –– we do not know when and how the Chinese car will survive it or collapse. According to Friedman the Indian car moves at only 40 kmph but along a terrible bumpy road with pot holes and culverts, but the Indians are negotiating the road well with democracy so there is a good chance they will overtake China, when it hits the bump and stalls, as its banking system is immature for such a large economy .

Today India is gambling on the nuclear deal of 18 Jul with USA for technology and another in space which will benefit India immensely. The Atomic Energy Chief Kakodkar made a statement on Fast Breeder Reactors at Kalapakam to be excluded from IAEA safeguards. Media reported PM Manmohan Singh was not happy with it. This statement may be a deliberate ploy to gauge USA's reaction via the media (Chankaya at work!), and we credit the modus operandi. The nuclear deal will also help Indian Navy to achieve its aim to have an underwater nuclear deterrent faster.

Commercial Photos Show Chinese Nuke Buildup

By Bill Gertz


February 16, 2006

Commercial satellite photos made public recently provide a new look at China's nuclear forces and bases –– images that include the first view of a secret underwater submarine tunnel.

A Pentagon official said the photograph of the tunnel entrance reveals for the first time a key element of China's hidden military buildup. Similar but more detailed intelligence photos of the entrance are highly classified within the U.S. government, the official said.

"The Chinese have a whole network of secret facilities that the U.S. government understands but cannot make public," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "This is the first public revelation of China's secret buildup."

The photographs, taken from 2000 to 2004, show China's Xia-class ballistic missile submarine docked at the Jianggezhuang base, located on the Yellow Sea in Shandong province.

Nuclear warheads for the submarine's 12 JL-1 missiles are thought to be stored inside an underwater tunnel that was photographed about 450 meters to the northwest of the submarine. The high-resolution satellite photo shows a waterway leading to a ground-covered facility.

Other photographs show additional underground military facilities, including the Feidong air base in Anhui province with a runway built into a nearby hill.

The photographs were obtained by the nonprofit groups Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and Federation of American Scientists. The photos first appeared Friday in the winter edition of the quarterly newsletter Imaging Notes.

The photographs are sharp enough to identify objects on the ground about 3 feet in size. Such digital images were once the exclusive domain of U.S. technical intelligence agencies, but in recent years, commercial companies have deployed equally capable space-based cameras.

Disclosure of the underground bases supports analyses of Pentagon and intelligence officials who say China is engaged in a secret military buildup that threatens U.S. interests, while stating publicly that its forces pose no threat.

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said during a trip to China in October that Beijing was sending "mixed signals" by building up forces in secret and without explaining their purpose.

Adm. Gary Roughead, commander of the Navy's Pacific Fleet, said he did not consider China "a threat." But he also said in a speech Tuesday that China's purpose behind its rapid military buildup is not fully known. "That's a little unclear," he said, noting that "increased transparency" is needed from China.

The photographs included several shots of Chinese H-6 strategic bombers and related aerial refueling tankers at Dangyang airfield in Hubei province. Also, 70 nuclear-capable Qian-5 aircraft were photographed parked at an airfield in Jianqiao, Zhejiang province, on the East China Sea coast. 

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